Predicting The Dolphins 2018 Win Total | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Predicting The Dolphins 2018 Win Total

JahnDho said:
I mean that quite literally. There certainly can’t be two truths. One of us is being delusional while the other is being rational. Call someone rational and they’re not like oh em gee what a wonderful compliment. They just say ya cool I know. Call them delusional and watch their head explode!
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Brother no one has to be delusional, they just have there opinions that happen to be different. No need to come off abrasive in your posts.
 
The way I see it, in any right or wrong situation, one person is rational and one person is delusional, and some place in between is the truth, but there aren’t two truths.
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At this moment it is all just opinion and a sprinkling of data to support that opinion on both sides.
No one is right or wrong and the truth will only come at the seasons end looking back on our record.
It's fun to predict but no one really knows what the future brings and to claim you do is ridiculous.
I like to look at things optimistically and hope for the best. Makes me excited going into a new season. Yea I'm wrong a lot but I can live with that. i believe that's being a fan and not being so analytical it sucks any joy out of the upcoming season before it even starts.
 
IMO, RT makes this o-like look better this year than he has in the past. Based on his time on the sidelines and film room, I believe he’ll be a better leader, better student of the game week in and week out, and more confident. He’ll play faster (taking less sacks), be more accurate (consistent mechanics), and spread the ball around (opening up the running game and making the o-line better at run blocking.)
 
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JahnDho said:
I mean it quite literally. In terms of lacking wisdom or judgement. There certainly can’t be two truths. One of us is being delusional while the other is being rational. Call someone rational and they’re not like oh em gee what a wonderful compliment. They just say ya cool I know. Call them delusional and watch their head explode!
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You do realize delusional people think they are rational, right?
As far as predicting, it's common in every field containing knowledgeable people to disagree on prediction, often by significant margins. As far as Miami goes, seems the crowd here is overwhelmingly somewhere from 6 -10 wins - a two game difference from middle of the road. I'm on record for 8-8, but can see 10 wins as more likely than the 3-4 some experts/odds-makers predict.
Predictions are full of suppositions - part of the process. These break down when evaluating opponents. No one knows how new coaches will turn out, whether or not Carr (for example) will play well or not, and haven't seen it yet, but long time fans know a team like the Raiders can lose to a bad team and play Miami next, taking their frustrations out on Miami. Or, a team like the Jets can beat, say, the Patriots, and have a letdown the next week against Miami. No one can consider all possibilities. Thus, variations in predictions.
 
Ray R said:
They seem to get beat 4 or 5 times a year.

Usually we are one of the teams that beats them. What happened last year was more than a win, it was a total beat down. We did it with three of our key players out for the year. This was not a game the Pats backed off from, they just had their butt's handed to them.

The conference has gotten stronger while they remained the same, which was pretty strong. This is likely to be a year they don't win due to better conference play by their opponents and the fact that their internal organization had some major adjustments due to the loss of some key coaches.

No guarantees, but I see at least two of the conference teams beating them this season, and maybe more than once.

The rest of the NFL has also gotten much better. Lets see if the Patriots get 9 wins this season. They may not get that many. They won't collapse, but I see them getting beat more often and especially in our conference.

I can't put into words how ready I am for this season to start.
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Isn't that pretty selective? What about the game at their place? That was a much bigger beat down. The year before in Miami? Or before that in New England etc? Like someone else mentioned in the thread, if we do go and beat them first time out, Brady will come out angry for the 2nd match. It's hard to beat those guys once, let along twice. I'd absolutely love it, mind you, but I guess that goes without saying.
 
joenhre said:
It is flawed logic believing that something won't happen because it hasn't happened in a long time. It is also flawed logic believing that someone will continue to defy the laws of nature when history has shown that most men who played the same position started to decline when they hit a certain age.
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True. And I guess if people predict their fall every year (as they've been doing every year since I became a Dolphin fan), then eventually they'll be right.
 
fishfanmiami said:
At this moment it is all just opinion and a sprinkling of data to support that opinion on both sides.
No one is right or wrong and the truth will only come at the seasons end looking back on our record.
It's fun to predict but no one really knows what the future brings and to claim you do is ridiculous.
I like to look at things optimistically and hope for the best. Makes me excited going into a new season. Yea I'm wrong a lot but I can live with that. i believe that's being a fan and not being so analytical it sucks any joy out of the upcoming season before it even starts.
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I’m cautiously optimistic they’ll be 8-8. Anytime someone says 7-9 I feel like I should change my prediction to 7-9.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
You do realize delusional people think they are rational, right?
As far as predicting, it's common in every field containing knowledgeable people to disagree on prediction, often by significant margins. As far as Miami goes, seems the crowd here is overwhelmingly somewhere from 6 -10 wins - a two game difference from middle of the road. I'm on record for 8-8, but can see 10 wins as more likely than the 3-4 some experts/odds-makers predict.
Predictions are full of suppositions - part of the process. These break down when evaluating opponents. No one knows how new coaches will turn out, whether or not Carr (for example) will play well or not, and haven't seen it yet, but long time fans know a team like the Raiders can lose to a bad team and play Miami next, taking their frustrations out on Miami. Or, a team like the Jets can beat, say, the Patriots, and have a letdown the next week against Miami. No one can consider all possibilities. Thus, variations in predictions.
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Yes, that’s why I call them fanatics.

In all seriousness, that’s why people like to debate and somewhere between is the truth. I don’t believe confrontation is a bad thing. It carries a negative connotation because people learn to hate confrontation from people who have low emotional IQs. They can’t maintain self control. But through confrontation lies resolution. I also don’t get offended easily so I know I come off abrasive sometimes.
 
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I'm thinking 7-9, if everything goes right I can see flipping it 9-7. Ask me again once we get through the preseason.
 
dirkey said:
Isn't that pretty selective? What about the game at their place? That was a much bigger beat down. The year before in Miami? Or before that in New England etc? Like someone else mentioned in the thread, if we do go and beat them first time out, Brady will come out angry for the 2nd match. It's hard to beat those guys once, let along twice. I'd absolutely love it, mind you, but I guess that goes without saying.
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Understood.
It's just the NFL doesn't historically maintain these types of dominant organizations for much more than a decade. I believe for all the reasons I've just stated that their era is at, or nearing its end.
It will be interesting to observe and fun to be a fan of one of the teams involved in the Patriots demise. From what I've read it hasn't been much fun while they have been dominant.
 
Ray R said:
Understood.
It's just the NFL doesn't historically maintain these types of dominant organizations for much more than a decade. I believe for all the reasons I've just stated that their era is at, or nearing its end.
It will be interesting to observe and fun to be a fan of one of the teams involved in the Patriots demise. From what I've read it hasn't been much fun while they have been dominant.
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Haha, you could say that!! I really hope you're right. I think I'll just solidly read your posts from now on, as you will put me in a positive mood for the season ahead. I've let the last few years beat the optimism out of me to some extent. And as some people have said, might as well be optimistic in the off season!!
 
joenhre said:
The 2017 Titans remind me of the 2016 Dolphins. They played a weak schedule while only beating one team with a winning record. Also the Titans had a negative 22 point differential on the year. Difference is the Titans had their starting QB for the end of the 2017 season and faced a weaker opponent known for choking in the playoffs in the 1st round. When they had to play in Foxboro they got crushed just as expected. The Titans are a flawed team. Mariota is overrated IMO. Still has a lot more to prove than even Tannehill. Their defense is good but not great. Their offense is one dimensional until proven otherwise.

Derek Carr played 15 games in 2017 and for the most part he was below average. His career stats are very similar to Tannehill's other than turnovers but Carr has had the benefit of a much better offensive line. Tannehill missed the 2016 season and the Dolphins went 6-10. Derek Carr played 15 games in 2017 and the Raiders still were only able to win 6 games. Adding a declining Jordy Nelson and a most likely to be suspended Martavis Bryant isn't going to move the needle much on that offense. Their defense still has more question marks than even the Dolphins defense. I expect that defense to still be in the bottom half in the NFL. John Gruden hasn't coached in a decade yet people are expecting him to turn a below average team into a serious playoff contender. I am not buying it.
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Negative they beat the Jaguars 2X the Seahawks and the Chiefs thats 3 teams with a winning record they beat including the 2nd best defense in the NFL twice. Most teams are flawed, but they did go 9-7 two consecutive seasons with Mike Mularkey as their HC that counts for something.
I wouldn't begrudge them losing to the Pats at Foxboro given that we are 0-6 there.

And Tannehill has had the benefit of a better run game. You do realize before the Phins went 8-5 with Tannehill in 2016 they went 6-10 the previous year with Tannehill? Didn't we add a declining Frank Gore, and Josh Sitton-Gore a 35 year old HB is more likely to fall off over a 33 year old WR in Nelson, and Sitton in on his 3rd team in 4 years, that's pretty much journeyman status. Plus they still have this guy Amari Cooper who is better than any WR we have. Dude we had a worse defense than the Raiders last year and on top of that lost our best defender in Suh.

Now I'm not saying these teams are head and shoulders above us but all 3 could be between 6-10 and 10-6 and it wouldn't be shocking. All 3 have flaws and have had questionable coaching. Both Mariota and Tannehill have had 3 coaches while Carr is on his 4th. We all make excuses for Tannehill but believe no other QB deserves the same which is weird. As far as Im concerned all 3 teams are in the same boat and have a lot of questions going into the 2018 season to include questions about their QB's.
 
Sep 9 Titans: W...I have heard the players, to the coaches are extremely excited to start season, after last year, they will come out for blood. 1-0

Sep 16 @ Jets: W...Miami wants to reach the playoffs, and to do so, they have to beat the teams that are rebuilding, even in their home. 2-0

Sep 23 Raiders: W...Though this seems like fantasy, I believe if Miami is as good as I think, and Gase is as good a HC as I think, they are fully able to win their 1st 3 games, and get that 3rd game at home against the Raiders (Who they should have beat last year, if not for Cutler). 3-0

Sep 30 @ Patriots: L.... Miami will be going into the Patriots with a 3 game winning streak, Belichick will be a bit nervous, which will make him even more dangerous, Miami will lose, but unlike years past, where Bill made sure to run up the score to make a point, this will be a much closer game then Bill will hope for.
3-1

Oct 7 @ Bengals: W...Miami will go into Bengals country looking to get themselves a Tiger rug after the loss to the Patriots, they will win in a close one. 4-1

Oct 14 Bears: W...Another game Miami is supposed to win, and absolutely need to win to feel good about their chances to reach the playoff with the impending 2nd half of the season. 5-1

Oct 21 Lions: W...This game could be very dangerous, but I believe if no huge injuries have occurred, Gase will have them very focused. 6-1

Oct 25 @ Texans: L...A brutal game to play in Houston after playing a very tough game against the Lions only four days earlier. 6-2

Nov 4 Jets: W...Miami will refocus from the past week loss with a hugevwin against the Jets as they sweep them. 7-2

Nov 11 @ Packers: L...The Packers at home are very tough to beat, add to that they will again be in a playoff hunt, and Miami will have a too much to overcome with the Rodgers effect. 7-3

Bye

Nov 25 @ Colts: Coming off the Bye, Miami will be very focused in their goal, and the 1st Victim will be the Colts (W/ Luck or Not), added prediction, if Luck does play, Tannehill will severely out play him, as by this time, Ryan will be feeling very comfortable. 8-3

Dec 2 Bills: W...Hey Bills, remember how you swept the Cutler led Dolphins last year? Well the Dolphins do, and this could get very ugly if the Bills are struggling. 9-3

Dec 9 Patriots: W...So what normally happens when the Patriots go into Miami when the Dolphins are pretty much healthy (heck, what happens when at times they are not that healthy also). This is not the Dolphins of old, so...10-3

Dec 16 @ Vikings: L...Though I believe this coming years Dolphin team will be special, the Viking will be tough, and in Minny, it will be even tougher. 10-4

Dec 23 Jaguars: W...This could be just as easy a loss, and even thought about putting this as a loss, but though the Jags D will be one of the best Miami will face, I also believe this years version of the Dolphins D will surprise many, which will then fall on who has the better passing and running game, here Miami at home will have the advantage. 11-4

Dec 30 @ Bills: L...Though Miami does get revenge for last year's sweep of the team, this is still a Bills team that has Miami's number...especially in Buffalo. 11-5
 
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