Predicting The Dolphins 2018 Win Total | Page 6 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Predicting The Dolphins 2018 Win Total

pacresjt said:
2016 We went 10-6. Last year doesn’t count. Too many distractions and injuries. Shall I list them. Hurricane, Timmons AWOL, traveled 100,000 000 miles before first home game, no bye week, more injuries, Maluga Arrested, OL Coach snorts coke, JAY FREEKIN CUTLER. We still won 6. Wow. We lost Jarvis, Suh and Pouncy. We gained Amedola, Wilson, 2 TE in draft don’t sleep on Derby), Sitton, Kilgore, Spence, Quinn, McMillan, don’t sleep on grant, Gore and yes Ryan 100.6 QB rating year 1 under Gase last 8 games 8-5 record. Now tell me how this team is not better than the 2016 team and we can’t be optimistic about 9-10 wins. If you watch football and if you watch the Miami Dolphins and you know we are not going to force the ball to 2 cry baby’s who held back the offense last year who are no longer with the team allowing us to play the coaches system then you know this team wins 10 games. If you don’t think so you’re not a Miami Dolphins fan period!
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You can be optimistic about 9-10 wins, 8-8 is more likely, it’s when you get to 11 plus that you turn into a fanatic. And the guy saying 5 or less wins is just as far off in left field too. However, you’re not more of a fan and the guy saying 6-7 wins isn’t any less a fan. I don’t take offense either. I realize it’s not a personal attack. Most of what you said makes sense, I don’t agree, but I get where you’re coming from. It’s not until the end that I start to think people who say this stuff are taking crazy pills.

You take the good, you take the bad, you mix them up and then you have. Adding more mediocre talent doesn’t make you above avg. They have some bright spots, they have a roster full of avg Joe’s and aging vets, and you have a 500 team.
 
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JahnDho said:
Yes, that’s why I call them fanatics.

In all seriousness, that’s why people like to debate and somewhere between is the truth. I don’t believe confrontation is a bad thing. It carries a negative connotation because people learn to hate confrontation from people who have low emotional IQs. They can’t maintain self control. But through confrontation lies resolution. I also don’t get offended easily so I know I come off abrasive sometimes.
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That part where he was saying irrational people think they’re rational? He might not have been talking about people other than you.

I understand you enjoy debate. Most of us do. But a 4-5 game upswing isn’t outlandish for this team, and thinking that might happen doesn’t make us blind homers or delusional or fanatics.

I suppose my point here is that it’s possible to have reasonable debate without name calling. Desiring that doesn’t mean we’re emotionally deficient. It just means we don’t order ****** with our coffee in the morning.
 
JahnDho said:
You can be optimistic about 9-10 wins, 8-8 is more likely, it’s when you get to 11 plus that you turn into a fanatic. And the guy saying 5 or less wins is just as far off in left field too. However, you’re not more of a fan and the guy saying 6-7 wins isn’t any less a fan. I don’t take offense either. I realize it’s not a personal attack. Most of what you said makes sense, I don’t agree, but I get where you’re coming from. It’s not until the end that I start to think people who say this stuff are taking crazy pills.

You take the good, you take the bad, you mix them up and then you have. Adding more mediocre talent doesn’t make you above avg. They have some bright spots, they have a roster full of avg Joe’s and aging vets, and you have a 500 team.
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Replacing JT with "mediocre" is an upgrade. Other than Suh, I see no talent downgrades. Pouncey, maybe, but Kilgore will be practicing. And remember Brendel? No dropoff when he went in.
The pessimists have a point in reminding fans of past, deflated optimism. OTOH, pessimists are trapped by history
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Replacing JT with "mediocre" is an upgrade. Other than Suh, I see no talent downgrades. Pouncey, maybe, but Kilgore will be practicing. And remember Brendel? No dropoff when he went in.
The pessimists have a point in reminding fans of past, deflated optimism. OTOH, pessimists are trapped by history
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Good catch, Thomas was horrendous. Gesicki is absolutely an upgrade. One of the reasons I’m optimistic for 10 wins in 2019. Not seeing him take off to think he’ll be great this year but next year he’ll be a big weapon.

Amendola/Wilson are downgrades. Landry arguably the top slot WR in the NFL. Kilgore was let go because he’s inconsistent and they found a better player. He’s been a back up most of his 7 year career. Before you go into Pouncy’s health, don’t forget he played 16 games last year.

I’d be shocked if Quinn ever has another double digit sack season and we don’t know what Harris ceiling is yet, but adding Quinn will hold him back from showing us.
 
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fansinceGWilson said:
Replacing JT with "mediocre" is an upgrade. Other than Suh, I see no talent downgrades. Pouncey, maybe, but Kilgore will be practicing. And remember Brendel? No dropoff when he went in.
The pessimists have a point in reminding fans of past, deflated optimism. OTOH, pessimists are trapped by history
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As a fellow “pessimist”, I hold Tannenbaum to his history more than anyone. Gase to some degree but more just as a HC with Miami. However, I only judge the players by their NFL/college years depending how long they’ve been in the NFL. If that’s being trapped by history then oh well.
 
JahnDho said:
You don’t say?!??

4 more wins than last year is really pushing it. People expecting 11 plus wins are fanatics. People optimistic with 10 wins but really believe 8 or 9 wins is different than really expecting 11 or 5. There’s a line and crossing it says something about you. I don’t expect to win any humanity awards but it doesn’t make me an a hole either. I suppose you’re entitled to your opinion.

But calling me an a hole isn’t any different. I’m certainly not going to cry about it. Just to be clear, I’m not at all upset about it. I don’t want a moderator stepping in telling us to keep it civil. I think this is healthy. Just calling it out.
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So...to clarify...10 wins is ok...but once someone says 11, it "says something about someone?"

You're making my point in that you seem incapable of disagreeing with someone without disparaging them. Also please note that I didn't call you any names...I was simply using an illustration. If I was going to call you names, it would be fairly direct.

And, yes. We are ALL entitled to our opinions. I completely understand that you're all about tempering your expectations and seeing only 8 wins. Fine. I don't think you're delusional, or grumpy, or over-optimistic, or over-pessimistic. It's just what you see. I se TWO games this year that I look at and say "No way do the Fins win that game." At New England, and at Green Bay. That's it. And I would ABSOLUTELY say that 14-2 is over-the-top optimism.

But I'm not going to tell someone they have a mental condition because they think that. THAT is obnoxious. THAT, amigo, says something about you, not the other person. Just because you don't mind being called out for it doesn't make it okay to do it.
 
I said 10 is pushing it, there’s a line and 11 plus is beyond it.
 
11-5 all day. A win @ GB or @ NE opens the door to 12 wins.

Our schedule is pretty advantageous this year.

Tennessee at home with a new coach to start the season is a great way to kick it off.

We got Oakland coming cross country a week after they play @ Denver. (3-0 is very possible) A Khalil Mack holdout will not upset this guy one bit.

No Edelman week 4. Win this game and 12 wins becomes possible.

We got Houston for that Thursday night game but thankfully they are @ Jacksonville the Sunday before that.

Packers will be tough but their schedule is brutal for a 5 week stretch. @ LAR, @ NE, MIA, @ SEA(Thurs) and @ Minn. That doesn't seem fair but they can't look past Miami.

Cincinnati game is a similar situation to Green Bay's murderous stretch. Unlike 2017, this team should be getting fresher than most come December. 3 extra days off after the Houston game before hosting the Jets, then traveling to GB. We get the bye right after the Packers then host the Colts.

Minnesota and Jacksonville are going to be tough no matter how I spin it but I will try. At the very least, I believe we will have the best QB on the field in both games. Let the chips fall where they may.

We could also be facing rookie QB's in 4 division games.
 
JahnDho said:
As a fellow “pessimist”, I hold Tannenbaum to his history more than anyone. Gase to some degree but more just as a HC with Miami. However, I only judge the players by their NFL/college years depending how long they’ve been in the NFL. If that’s being trapped by history then oh well.
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First, there are those who are trapped in history. For example, quotes from this and other threads . . .
"We have a history of starting out slow 1-3 is likely. " While true, it proves nothing for '18.
"Magically after the draft, faith is restored, people will start to predict 9-7 or 10-6 with playoff hopes... And history repeats." Again, no understanding hx DOES change.

I can see PIT, NE, SF and many other team fans having doubters before their dynasties. No, I'm not saying Gase, will bring a dynasty, but judging solely on hx is ignoring the fact hx ALWAYS changes. Imaginary Steelers fan quote . . . 'Yeah, we'll suck again. Noll will be just like all the others.'

We disagree on Landry. Good, not elite slot. Pouncey? The 'good' Pouncey was negated by the 'can't practice' Pouncey. Mediocre. Quinn? Who knows? Is he the player he was in '16, '17, or were his numbers down because he was miscast? We won't know until October, but claiming to know is exposing prejudice, not fact. Sitton? He's automatically mediocre because of age. Kinda like Wake, right? again, no one knows, but making that judgement of upgrade/mediocre before he plays a down is prejudice.

We agree on a number of things though. JT and Cutler were bad and just about everyone knew it on the day of their signing. Wallace was a product of his system in PIT. That was evident. I get the concept of looking at hx, but hx without context is just hx to prove a point. And my prediction is 8-8. Apparently not far from yours.

People are still dumping on TBaum as if he runs the draft, even though he doesn't and the last three drafts have been much better. That's hx over reality. Or Miami will win 3-4 because Tannehill WILL get injured. Those people ought to play the lottery. That's a long preface to say, pessimists ARE trapped by hx, if that hx is without context and doesn't account for change.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
First, there are those who are trapped in history. For example, quotes from this and other threads . . .
"We have a history of starting out slow 1-3 is likely. " While true, it proves nothing for '18.
"Magically after the draft, faith is restored, people will start to predict 9-7 or 10-6 with playoff hopes... And history repeats." Again, no understanding hx DOES change.

I can see PIT, NE, SF and many other team fans having doubters before their dynasties. No, I'm not saying Gase, will bring a dynasty, but judging solely on hx is ignoring the fact hx ALWAYS changes. Imaginary Steelers fan quote . . . 'Yeah, we'll suck again. Noll will be just like all the others.'

We disagree on Landry. Good, not elite slot. Pouncey? The 'good' Pouncey was negated by the 'can't practice' Pouncey. Mediocre. Quinn? Who knows? Is he the player he was in '16, '17, or were his numbers down because he was miscast? We won't know until October, but claiming to know is exposing prejudice, not fact. Sitton? He's automatically mediocre because of age. Kinda like Wake, right? again, no one knows, but making that judgement of upgrade/mediocre before he plays a down is prejudice.

We agree on a number of things though. JT and Cutler were bad and just about everyone knew it on the day of their signing. Wallace was a product of his system in PIT. That was evident. I get the concept of looking at hx, but hx without context is just hx to prove a point. And my prediction is 8-8. Apparently not far from yours.

People are still dumping on TBaum as if he runs the draft, even though he doesn't and the last three drafts have been much better. That's hx over reality. Or Miami will win 3-4 because Tannehill WILL get injured. Those people ought to play the lottery. That's a long preface to say, pessimists ARE trapped by hx, if that hx is without context and doesn't account for change.
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I’m curious what your take on Landry that has him as just a good slot WR opposed to an elite slot WR?

We’re comparing slot WRs, right? YPR low is one knock on his game I can’t argue against, however his YAC are elite, catches are elite, 1st downs elite, health/reliability elite, TDs (just last year) elite. Even his yards are elite. I’ve heard people say Baldwin is better, but compared to last year’s numbers Landry was as good or better statistically. And he’s 4 years younger.
 
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Hooligan said:
All those new faces have to learn to play together as a team and develop chemistry. That's a lot to expect.
Throw in a few injuries and we could see a very disappointing season.
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It shouldn't be "a lot to expect"...except for the rookies these guys are pros...been there done that....comes down to coaching, training and practice...

Throw in injuries to other teams while you're throwing...or...throw out injuries and we could see a very exciting season...it could go either way...or both ways...since it's all speculation

I will keep my hopes on "the glass half full"...
 
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