mwestberry
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Ok...we get it...you think he is elite...he doesn't matter anymore though except in a fantasy league....or in a Browns forum
Predicting The Dolphins 2018 Win Total
- Thread starter SCLSU Mud Dogs
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Ok...we get it...you think he is elite...he doesn't matter anymore though except in a fantasy league....or in a Browns forum
JahnDho
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Elite Slot WR. Borderline WR1. Matters in predictions as much as anyone else they lost. Talking about net gain/loss and how that factors into predicting their record.
mwestberry
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OK...I still like the trade off for 2 quality (yet to be determined) TE's and Amendola / Wilson....adding to that improved (in theory) QB play and an improved (on paper) offensive line with an up and coming RB with a (probably) future HOF back up/ mentor....
I truly don't believe Landry will be missed...but my opinion is lined with question marks, theory and speculation....we will see...but I like what I see
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Great post SCLSU Mud Dogs, hope you don't mind me copying/pasting your format. :D
Let me reiterate what I say every year, our success or failure depends on how we do IN DIVISION. Our Record in the AFC East will determine whether I consider this to be a successful season or not. Specifically, I'm looking at the 4 games we play with the Jets and the Bills. If we win all 4 of those, our season will be a success, not only in my mind, but also in the final record. If our AFC East record is 4-2 or 5-1, I'm happy. If we go 3-3 or below in division, this season was not a success in my mind. Good teams beat bad teams, and if we can't consistently beat the Jets and Bills, we have no claim to call ourselves a good team. Losing one or both of the games to the Patriots, that is understandable. Winning is nice, but not determinative of whether we are going to the playoffs. So, with that caveat, here are my way-too-early predictions:
Let me reiterate what I say every year, our success or failure depends on how we do IN DIVISION. Our Record in the AFC East will determine whether I consider this to be a successful season or not. Specifically, I'm looking at the 4 games we play with the Jets and the Bills. If we win all 4 of those, our season will be a success, not only in my mind, but also in the final record. If our AFC East record is 4-2 or 5-1, I'm happy. If we go 3-3 or below in division, this season was not a success in my mind. Good teams beat bad teams, and if we can't consistently beat the Jets and Bills, we have no claim to call ourselves a good team. Losing one or both of the games to the Patriots, that is understandable. Winning is nice, but not determinative of whether we are going to the playoffs. So, with that caveat, here are my way-too-early predictions:
Sept. 9: vs. Titans, 1 p.m.; FOX—W—I was a big proponent of the Titans last year, and I believe they're an underrated team again this year. But, if Gase has his offense humming, and Raekwon McMillan is as good as I think he is, I can see us winning this battle in the early September Miami humidity. Another comeback win for Tannehill?
Sept. 16: at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—We always play down to the level of competition with the Jets. But since I see consistently beating them as the determining factor for a good season, I'm picking us to once again take over MetLife stadium and beat the Jets. We have a TE now, a better OL, and should be able to score points. If Darnold plays, I'm expecting 2 strip-sack-fumbles from Quinn and Wake. If it's McCown, I expect a win. The only one I don't want to see is a healthy Teddy Bridgewater … IMHO, he can be a good QB if he's fully healthy once he shakes off the rust.
Sept. 23: vs. Raiders, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—West Coast team comes to play at 1 p.m. in the Miami humidity? I have high hopes for the Raiders this year, but I'm expecting Chucky's return to Florida to be a bumpy ride. Dolphins still undefeated … for now.
Sept. 30: at Patriots, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—Let me be the first to say I love playing the Patriots early in the season. That's when they're vulnerable. While few people give us a shot in Foxboro, I think we have a legitimate shot, because it's usually in weeks 4-6 that the Patriots find their stride. So, there might be a small window of opportunity. Yeah, but I'm still predicting a loss.
Record after September: 3-1
Oct. 7: at Bengals, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—This game can go either way. If the Bengals are on their game, we're likely losing this one. They have a ton of talent. But, since their 120 year old LT left, this team hasn't been able to use the talent it has. OL FTW, and the Bengals may not have the OL for it, so I'm calling this a Dolphins win.
Oct. 14: vs. Bears, 1 p.m.; FOX—W—These guys are not this year's Philadelphia Eagles. They don't have enough talent, and we should win this. If not, it's going to be very demoralizing.
Oct. 21: vs. Lions, 1 p.m.; FOX—W—Not a bad team, but also not a good one. These sorts of games tell us who we are. If we make quick work of the Lions, then we should be playoff-bound. If we trip over the Lions, we have only ourselves to blame. This is where I wonder how injuries are impacting the team. This time of year everyone has injuries.
Oct. 25 (Thursday): at Texans, 8:20 p.m.; FOX—L—We have a consistently horrible record of showing poorly in prime time. I'm really hoping we change that, but … I doubt it.
Record after October: 6-2
Nov. 4: vs. N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—Mark of consistency. We're the better team, we should win. If not … there will be trouble.
Nov. 11: at Packers, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—Late season game on the frozen tundra of Green Bay, against Aaron Rodgers in the heat of a divisional race. Gives us something to focus on during the bye week.
Nov. 18: Bye Week--?--Why won't it let me put a "W" here? Oh well, at least we can heal up and get prepared for the stretch run. Great time for a bye week.
Nov. 25: at Colts, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—The Colts are a team lacking talent. Even with Luck, we should beat them in Indianapolis. If we don't, well maybe we're not a playoff team after all.
Record after November: 8-3
Dec. 2: vs. Bills, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—Have the Bills given up yet? Regardless, these are the games that good teams win. They don't have to be pretty, but grinding out wins vs. inferior teams is what good teams do.
Dec. 9: vs. Patriots, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—It is in Miami, and the Patriots might not be focusing on us … but hey, the Patriots seldom lose down the stretch, and we're in their way. This is not the year we take over the division.
Dec. 16: at Vikings, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—Dome/turf game against a good defense with something on the line for both teams. It will be interesting to see how we do here, because this is a hostile environment much like a playoff game.
**Dec. 23: vs. Jaguars, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—Ugh. These games always mean so much more to the other Florida teams than they do to us, and now the Jags have a dominant power running game … and we are very weak at DT. Not a good combo, and we're possibly looking at another December swan dive, which does not bode well. Hey, maybe we can spike their eggnog. Eggnog-gate 2018!
Dec. 30: at Bills, 1 pm.; CBS—W—Well, playing in Buffalo on December 30th is a recipe for disaster. Beating them twice in the same month is tough. But, if we lose every game against other teams this entire month, this has become both a must-win game and a statement game. Let's hope the statement is that the Dolphins dominate the AFC East vs. teams not from Boston. Regardless, at least this dismal December has ended. Now we either look forward to the playoffs, or we look forward to the draft. But if we've just swept the Bills twice in a month, there's at least one thing to smile about.
Record after December and the full season: 10-6
Sept. 16: at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—We always play down to the level of competition with the Jets. But since I see consistently beating them as the determining factor for a good season, I'm picking us to once again take over MetLife stadium and beat the Jets. We have a TE now, a better OL, and should be able to score points. If Darnold plays, I'm expecting 2 strip-sack-fumbles from Quinn and Wake. If it's McCown, I expect a win. The only one I don't want to see is a healthy Teddy Bridgewater … IMHO, he can be a good QB if he's fully healthy once he shakes off the rust.
Sept. 23: vs. Raiders, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—West Coast team comes to play at 1 p.m. in the Miami humidity? I have high hopes for the Raiders this year, but I'm expecting Chucky's return to Florida to be a bumpy ride. Dolphins still undefeated … for now.
Sept. 30: at Patriots, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—Let me be the first to say I love playing the Patriots early in the season. That's when they're vulnerable. While few people give us a shot in Foxboro, I think we have a legitimate shot, because it's usually in weeks 4-6 that the Patriots find their stride. So, there might be a small window of opportunity. Yeah, but I'm still predicting a loss.
Record after September: 3-1
Oct. 7: at Bengals, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—This game can go either way. If the Bengals are on their game, we're likely losing this one. They have a ton of talent. But, since their 120 year old LT left, this team hasn't been able to use the talent it has. OL FTW, and the Bengals may not have the OL for it, so I'm calling this a Dolphins win.
Oct. 14: vs. Bears, 1 p.m.; FOX—W—These guys are not this year's Philadelphia Eagles. They don't have enough talent, and we should win this. If not, it's going to be very demoralizing.
Oct. 21: vs. Lions, 1 p.m.; FOX—W—Not a bad team, but also not a good one. These sorts of games tell us who we are. If we make quick work of the Lions, then we should be playoff-bound. If we trip over the Lions, we have only ourselves to blame. This is where I wonder how injuries are impacting the team. This time of year everyone has injuries.
Oct. 25 (Thursday): at Texans, 8:20 p.m.; FOX—L—We have a consistently horrible record of showing poorly in prime time. I'm really hoping we change that, but … I doubt it.
Record after October: 6-2
Nov. 4: vs. N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—Mark of consistency. We're the better team, we should win. If not … there will be trouble.
Nov. 11: at Packers, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—Late season game on the frozen tundra of Green Bay, against Aaron Rodgers in the heat of a divisional race. Gives us something to focus on during the bye week.
Nov. 18: Bye Week--?--Why won't it let me put a "W" here? Oh well, at least we can heal up and get prepared for the stretch run. Great time for a bye week.
Nov. 25: at Colts, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—The Colts are a team lacking talent. Even with Luck, we should beat them in Indianapolis. If we don't, well maybe we're not a playoff team after all.
Record after November: 8-3
Dec. 2: vs. Bills, 1 p.m.; CBS—W—Have the Bills given up yet? Regardless, these are the games that good teams win. They don't have to be pretty, but grinding out wins vs. inferior teams is what good teams do.
Dec. 9: vs. Patriots, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—It is in Miami, and the Patriots might not be focusing on us … but hey, the Patriots seldom lose down the stretch, and we're in their way. This is not the year we take over the division.
Dec. 16: at Vikings, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—Dome/turf game against a good defense with something on the line for both teams. It will be interesting to see how we do here, because this is a hostile environment much like a playoff game.
**Dec. 23: vs. Jaguars, 1 p.m.; CBS—L—Ugh. These games always mean so much more to the other Florida teams than they do to us, and now the Jags have a dominant power running game … and we are very weak at DT. Not a good combo, and we're possibly looking at another December swan dive, which does not bode well. Hey, maybe we can spike their eggnog. Eggnog-gate 2018!
Dec. 30: at Bills, 1 pm.; CBS—W—Well, playing in Buffalo on December 30th is a recipe for disaster. Beating them twice in the same month is tough. But, if we lose every game against other teams this entire month, this has become both a must-win game and a statement game. Let's hope the statement is that the Dolphins dominate the AFC East vs. teams not from Boston. Regardless, at least this dismal December has ended. Now we either look forward to the playoffs, or we look forward to the draft. But if we've just swept the Bills twice in a month, there's at least one thing to smile about.
Record after December and the full season: 10-6
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I can 100% see us not signing Amendola or Wilson if we had Landry but what makes you think we wouldn't have drafted the same? TE was still a need Landry or no Landry.
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Umm, you forgot TE, we drafted 2, one of which was a 2nd rounder who is truly elite athletically.
You also forgot to mention we improved the OL, losing Bushrod who consistently graded out as a horrible RG, and adding Sitton who graded out as the best LG in the NFL over the last 3 years. Yeah, we lost Pouncey, but replaced him with a no-name who graded out better than Pouncey, and stays healthy. And Larsen is healthy again.
These are significant changes, and IMHO, should be included in your analysis.
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Ray R
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Well said!
mwestberry
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I don't think our draft would have been any different...I'm not following your line of thinking....if I made a mess of my point...
I like the team we are fielding this season
Some think Landry is elite...I don't...Some think Landry will be missed...I don't (given the changes)...Some continually bring Landry up and sometimes I am compelled to answer but mostly...I don't
I believe the changes we made will more than compensate the team and make up for the 100 or so catches Landry made
Sorry if I was misunderstood or misleading
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Nice post. It would have been a tad easier to digest if you had broken it into paragraphs, but everything you said is spot on. Well done pacresjt!
People really underestimate the adversity we faced last year. Sure, Tannehill was the lion's share of our problems, and Jay Cutler was not the answer, but it's deeper than that.
Traveling soo many games either Trans-Atlantic or Trans-Continental was absolutely unheard of in the NFL. That is like putting the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC East … every week practically is a Trans-Continental flight.
The hurricane was a real disruption, and it came at a time that stole our bye week--the only positive we had in last year's horrible schedule. Worst possible timing.
The worst part of the LAWOLrence Timmons fiasco was that just when the team started coming together, he blew up our chemistry and confidence. Glad that flake is gone.
So we added Rey Maualuga and that was another absolute fiasco. Hard for the locker room to believe in themselves when stuff like this is happening around them in the locker room.
A coach doing drugs at the team's facility … yeah, locker room completely devoid of trust, hope, and confidence now.
So who is going to rally the team in the face of sooooooooo much adversity? The QB on crutches? Smokin' Jay Cutler--king of throwing the ball into the dirt when he hears footsteps? The silent giant Suh? Cam Wake … again? Our rookie starting MLB who was on IR for the entire season? It's easy to see why Grier & Co. wanted alpha personalities and leaders. Guys like Minkah Fitzpatrick.
This year with a return to health of our QB and Mike, we have leaders on both sides of the ball. The addition of veteran leaders like Josh Sitton, Robert Quinn, and Frank Gore give us people who will help will this team to respond in times of adversity. Newcomers like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Mike Gesicki add much needed ingredients on the field and in the locker room. We're a different team this year than we were last year.
We're a better team than last year … and better than 2 years ago also. By the end of the season, people outside of Miami will realize this too.
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Oh, so you admit that losing a starting QB can cause a team's record to take a tumble? Interesting.
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Maybe you should take your personal tete-a-tete into private messages. Personal attacks are not permitted, and you're pushing hard on what is bordering in that direction IMHO. I'm not a moderator, but dude … let it go. You're derailing a thread.
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Yea guys the personal stuff stops now.
Make your points without including any personal shots at other members you don't agree with.
Make your points without including any personal shots at other members you don't agree with.
JahnDho
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I disagree that the OL is improved. Pouncy played 16 games, was an elite pass protector and running game did well through Drake. Improved TE blocking improves gapping, so any C grades out better. Bookends are the same so that’s a wash. Sitton upgrade at G, but in his 11th season and that’s the decline for OL. If he doesn’t decline then he’ll be an upgrade. Davis is a question mark. Too many question marks than answers to say an upgrade.
From what I’ve seen from Geskicki, I’m not optimistic he’ll be a weapon until 2019. JT was horrendous though so can’t be worse either. They may find using TE to block is more beneficial in running game than an inconsistent first year Gesicki in the passing game. Could go either way IMO.
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