The biggest mistake you can make as an organization is taking a RB in round 1 and be strong armed into extending after 3 years. That is literally the biggest waste of a first round pick in the NFL today. And its going to happen if the guy is great or it won't happen if the guy is average to bad.
In the case of Jones, there is nothing to suggest he is going to be some massive failure. He doesn't have some bad injury history and he hasn't been run into the ground in Green Bay. He has a stellar off the field record as well. If it happens, there were literally no warning signs for it.
These RB deals are often 2 year deals . . . 3 if the team is in a desperate cap situation and is looking to give a little more signing bonus for an easy cap hit in the first year or 2. Miami isn't in a desperate cap situation so I think the deal would be structured to where the contract is easy to get out of in year 3. I would say anything under 4 million dead in year 3 would be ideal for Miami.
Franchise tag for RB is roughly 11 million. . . and some project "up to" 15 million for Jones in FA, so lets split it and say the contract is 4/52 or 13 AAV.
I think the goal for Miami is to get the 2021 cap hit under 10 million, just from a flexibility standpoint with the tighter cap and some projections a 20 million plus increase in 2022.
Jones at 4/52 . . . I'd say a 7 million dollar signing bonus with base/bonuses totaling 8 million in year 1. That would put the cap hit at 9.75 million in 2021 and the dead money opt out in 2023 (2 years later when he is only 28) . . . is 3.5 million.
2022 would kick the base/bonuses up to 10 million and the cap hit would be 11.75 million. 2 years in you have a cap hit of 21.5 million or 10.75 AAV.
Last 2 years would be inflated and not guaranteed . . . 13 and 14 million respectively in base/bonus those final 2 years.
So in the end the Jones contract would basically be 2 years/25 million with 3.5 million dead after 2 years if you moved on. The cap would stay under 10 million this year and only crank up to just under 12 million in the 2nd year when the cap increases.