Rank
1
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs · Caesars odds: +650
A savvier blogger would throw
Dak Prescott atop this list, sit back as our social media team drops that dirty bomb onto Twitter and watch the world burn into a dark dream.
Mahomes, though, provides all the drama we need. He's the origin story, the figure NFL marketers, schedule-makers and every soul in this newsroom revolve around as we head toward the 2023 campaign. If I gained anything writing
last season's QB Index, it was a newly minted, deep trust in Kansas City's polestar to deliver. No matter what. Mahomes seems to contribute his greatest heroics when banged up, spinning spells regardless of the surrounding cast.
Realistically, Mahomes is a solid candidate to top last season's feats -- leading all passers in yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) while throwing 12 picks -- as Andy Reid continues to world-build in a post-
Tyreek Hill universe.
The best quarterback on Earth will face a flock of familiar foes this season --
Joe Burrow,
Josh Allen,
Justin Herbert and
Jalen Hurts -- while confronting
Aaron Rodgers for the first time. It all starts, though, against
Jared Goff and the frisky Lions in
the NFL Kickoff Game.
Rank
2
Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia Eagles · Caesars odds: +1200
Flip-flop a few of Madeleine L'Engle's
wrinkles in time, and we're spending all offseason talking about Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts and an Eagles dynasty-in-the-making. Philly's quarterback
dazzled on the biggest stage, accounting for 374 total yards and four touchdowns before
Mahomes played king.
Hurts grew as much as any passer league-wide in 2022, refining his downfield artistry to turn
A.J. Brown and
DeVonta Smith into a nasty pair of 1,000-yard receivers. Hurts blinds you with his lasers, then barrels through you -- breaking your will -- with his rare power as an open-field rumbler.
He'll face the league's
toughest strength of schedule -- five of the past six teams who did so missed the playoffs -- but the well-built, gnarly Eagles give me '89 Niners vibes. It's not hard to picture them as an angry asteroid rolling through a milquetoast NFC.
Rank
3
Joe Burrow
Cincinnati Bengals · Caesars odds: +750
In another reality, Burrow
exists as a 1930s matinee cowboy hired out by Columbia Pictures to roam the Santa Susanas. In our time, he's arrived to save a Bengals club struggling for oxygen until he strode in. Burrow capped last season with
Pro Football Focus' highest passing grade, finishing the regular season with eight straight wins and trailing only Mahomes in touchdown tosses.
With
Ja'Marr Chase and
Tee Higgins at his side, Burrow's a lock for another uber-consistent campaign. It was an upset to see the Bengals
not draft a pass-catching tight end -- high hopes for
Irv Smith Jr. -- but the front office dialed up a coup by snagging left tackle
Orlando Brown Jr. on
a four-year, $64.092 million deal. Cincy's destiny might have been different a year ago had the line not crumbled into an injury-riddled apocalypse against K.C. in
the AFC title game.
Burrow will get another shot at Mahomes
on New Year's Eve, after
tussling with Josh Allen,
Trevor Lawrence and
San Francisco's Nick Bosa-led defense. One additional to-do: It's time for Joe Cool to improve on his weirdish 1-4 record against the Cleveland Browns.
Rank
4
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills · Caesars odds: +750
I plan to hear about this one: plopping Allen fourth on this list.
It comes as no slight to one of the game's most enjoyable visual feasts. He's shown MVP traits for years and takes over games in a way nobody can match. Still, I'm down on the concept of Buffalo rolling through a rugged AFC East to 14 wins.
The offense went to sleep for stretches last season. That won't work inside a schedule asking Buffalo to
face the Bengals,
Eagles and
Chiefs -- all on the road -- over one five-game span. Allen must storm those hostile houses and go blow-for-blow with the three quarterbacks mentioned above if the race is tight. That all comes after dueling
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in
the Monday night opener.
I do love the addition of first-rounder
Dalton Kincaid, the 6-foot-4, 246-pound tight end who projects as a much-needed weapon out of the slot alongside
Stefon Diggs,
Gabe Davis and
Dawson Knox. The
DeAndre Hopkins trade winds
have quieted, but could Bills general manager Brandon Beane eventually push for one more weapon? That Super Bowl window is still cracked open.
Rank
5
Aaron Rodgers
New York Jets · Caesars odds: +1800
Fingers crossed he's MVP-worthy. Why? Aaron Rodgers is going to be a massive part of our lives all autumn into winter, with the hype-bunny Jets set for a robust five prime-time tilts along with
a fight against Miami in the NFL's first-ever Black Friday game.
It's a new world for the Jets and their quarterback, who will contend against a suddenly thorny AFC East, duel the AFC West and
take on Dallas,
Philly and the NFC East. It lines up as the NFL's sixth-nastiest slate by strength of schedule.
If Rodgers thrives and tugs Gang Green to January, though, he's a compelling match for what the award
should mean: More than just the best quarterback overseeing a powerhouse, someone who serves as a rainmaker. Taking the Jets to the playoffs for the first time in 2010 would double as a course in miracles -- especially if we get a revived, fired-up Aa-Rod in a bounceback campaign.
Rank
6
Lamar Jackson
Baltimore Ravens · Caesars odds: +1800
The Ravens have long struggled to cultivate wideouts. Beyond the fascinations of tight end
Mark Andrews, Baltimore's leading receiver a year ago was
Demarcus Robinson, who punctured defenses for a whopping 458 yards and two scores.
Since Lamar Jackson was drafted half a decade ago,
Marquise Brown is the only Ravens WR to cross 1,000 yards, barely doing so in 2021 with 1,008. The parlor game becomes:
Who Do You Blame? Greg Roman's (since-jettisoned) grind-it-out attack? An otherwise-spotless front office? Jackson himself? The debate comes to a head this September, when Lamar returns in the flesh with
Odell Beckham Jr., first-rounder
Zay Flowers and
Nelson Agholor added to the mix alongside
Rashod Bateman and alpha-dog Andrews.
"I want to
throw for 6,000 yards with the weapons we have," a freshly motivated Jackson said earlier this month after landing his
five-year, $260 million deal. To follow through -- blowing past
Peyton Manning's record 5,477 yards from 2013 -- Jackson must simply pass for 353 yards per game. His best single-season total to this point: 3,127 yards in his 2019 MVP campaign.
New play caller Todd Monken must love the moxie, but Lamar's path toward a second MVP requires that he display heightened durability after missing 10 games over the past two seasons. Who on this list has more to prove out of the gate?
Rank
7
Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers · Caesars odds: +1500
I'm sticking with what I wrote in my
end-of-the-regular-season Index about L.A.'s centerpiece:
I see -- like so many of us do -- a player who throws one of the prettiest balls in all the land. A selfless centerpiece who played through the pain of a rib cartilage fracture. A guy whose numbers suffered with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams -- plus a rash of linemen -- ripped from the lineup. A physical specimen baked into a scheme that too often holds him back. I feel as strongly about Herbert as a top-five quarterback as I do about anything happening in the sport today.
The roster has very few holes. Last year's problematic scheme has been swept out the door for a Kellen Moore-led attack that promises to
make the most of Herbert through the air. Added to the mix: first-rounder
Quentin Johnston out of TCU, the brand of big-bodied wideout who can author headaches for secondaries alongside Allen and Williams.
Winning MVP, though, will require felling Mahomes -- arguably twice -- and turning the Chargers into a consistent heartthrob after years of dark comedy. Is this a sneaky Super Bowl squad ready to rise -- or just another cursed Bolts team destined to disappoint?
Rank
8
Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars · Caesars odds: +1500
Lawrence's leap was one of football's most exciting events a season ago. Per NFL Research, he became just the second quarterback since 1950 (with 10-plus starts) to double his passing touchdowns and halve his picks from the previous year. He trimmed off-target throws in real time and showed a knack for putting the offense on his shoulders. The attack finished with the league's ninth-best DVOA -- sixth overall in passing -- and
gave the Chiefs a fight in the playoffs.
P.S.: Jacksonville added
Calvin Ridley to the mix.
The Jaguars will become the first team in history to play back-to-back tilts in London, confronting
the Falcons in Week 4 and
the Bills in Week 5. It was last year's
loss to the Broncos at Wembley that served as Lawrence's
career-altering wakeup call.
Back home, the AFC South looms as less of a punching bag, with
C.J. Stroud in Houston and
Anthony Richardson in Indy, but Jacksonville's fate boils down to Lawrence picking up where he left off. With 15 touchdowns to just two picks over his final nine regular-season games last season, we're staring at something special in the works.