Slimm before I get deeper into the Daniel Jones library, can I get your opinion on this throw?
It looks to me like Daniel Jones takes his gather step and heaves it, keeping a lower trajectory because he's not really trying to hit a guy vertically with a defender in trail, but really trying to get the ball under a deep defender on a cross. Which means he's not necessarily trying to get air under this ball; he's just trying to get it there.
Maybe I'm wrong on that, that's why I'm asking.
But if that is the case then...WOOF. This is Jay Fiedler type arm strength. Maybe not even Jay because I had Jay at over 40 mph on throws of this distance, way back in the day.
Just to put this into a quantitative context, I've got throws of this distance from other guys that crest 50+ miles per hour average speed. This one...was 38.
I looked at a virtually identical throw from Jarrett Stidham, and it was damn near half a second faster. And Stidham has what I'd deem to be "NFL velocity", not what I would call an "NFL good velocity".
That 0.45 second difference on the two identical throws translates to about 12 to 13 feet of extra closing distance for a defensive back running at typical speed.
Maybe Jones just flubbed it.
You're correct that this is a touch throw and not a velocity throw. That said, probably not one of his best throws - weight transfer wasn't really ideal, but I wonder if that was because he was concerned with colliding into his RB who he could see was moving backwards towards him when he released it.
I think if you evaluate many more throws of Jones, you'll understand he can get the football down the field with no problem. The throws that I find he has more difficulty with are velocity throws towards the sideline or outbreaking routes.
In my opinion, when you want to evaluate arm talent - there are 3 categories you have to assess. First, the force generated (size of arm). Secondly, how far you can throw a football with trajectory and distance. Third, how much velocity the arm can get on the football....arm speed. All of these throws are different. Thrown differently based on the route and what the situation is. You may have one of these, but doesn't mean you have the other, so on and so forth. If you have all three, I think you're checking all the boxes in terms of pure arm talent.
I believe Jones checks 2 out of 3 boxes in terms of arm talent - the first two. When I study him, I see the velocity type throws as being where there's some question. However, I think these are the type you can improve on. There are more variables you can use in your favor to get the job done (anticipation & timing). If you don't have any of the three, you're probably not an NFL prospect.
I think the touch and accuracy Jones has are the things you can't really coach. Without really even touching on what he does with his feet, or intangibles.
Furthermore, just because you have all three doesn't necessarily make you a lock to be great either. A lot of the issues I see with Drew Lock and Jarrett Stidham for example, are the same issues I saw with Brady Quinn and Christian Hackenberg. Arm talent wasn't an issue. Accuracy and poise were.
