The Book On Ryan Tannehill (parts 1 And 2) - Comprehensive Scouting Report

[lurking]

Is this really the worst pass in NFL history?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ryan-tannehill-throws-the-worst-pass-in-nfl-history/

I guess you didn't watch the video and see that the ball slipped out of his hand before he threw it.
But keep on hating.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Yes, really. You are repeating what I said already. No need for that. I already said he had better rating, completion percentage. Stats are available for everyone.
The opposite argument: In 2014 RT had more yards, more TDs, less interceptions per attempt, more rushing yards. He was a bigger part of the offense and produced more.
So if you extend the 2016 stats to 16 games you would get:
2014: 590 attempts, 61.6%, 4,045 yds, 27 TD, 12 INT, 46 SK
2016: 479 attempts, 62.4%, 3686 yds, 23 TD, 15 INT, 36 SK

It's close, without nitpicking to make a point. He's leveled off imo. Some may say he is better on efficiency, some may say not as good on production, but it's pretty much the same. And in the mean time he had a pull back year in 2015.
Stats speak. I am telling you what I see. Reasonable people can have different interpretations, but I do not see a big difference between the two Ryan Tannehills. To me he is that guy from 2014. He may have a little more succes, maybe a little less success in some years, but roughly that's it.

Your completion % numbers are wrong.

You said ALL indications. Did you mean all except passer rating, completion %, and YPA?

And if his leveling off is 12th best (based on QB rating) in the league, what then? Because that's where he was in 2016.

 

[The Goat]

Yes, really. You are repeating what I said already. No need for that. I already said he had better rating, completion percentage. Stats are available for everyone.
The opposite argument: In 2014 RT had more yards, more TDs, less interceptions per attempt, more rushing yards. He was a bigger part of the offense and produced more.
So if you extend the 2016 stats to 16 games you would get:
2014: 590 attempts, 61.6%, 4,045 yds, 27 TD, 12 INT, 46 SK
2016: 479 attempts, 62.4%, 3686 yds, 23 TD, 15 INT, 36 SK

It's close, without nitpicking to make a point. He's leveled off imo. Some may say he is better on efficiency, some may say not as good on production, but it's pretty much the same. And in the mean time he had a pull back year in 2015.
Stats speak. I am telling you what I see. Reasonable people can have different interpretations, but I do not see a big difference between the two Ryan Tannehills. To me he is that guy from 2014. He may have a little more succes, maybe a little less success in some years, but roughly that's it.

Leveled off?

No.

Here's an indicator for you...in his last 7 games before his injury:

Ryan Tannehill was 6-1. I'm attributing this record to him because your standards seem to be that records in the most team-dependent sport that there is are irrevocably linked to one player.
He had a 70% completion rate.
He had 13 TD and 5 INT

Everybody saw that he'd picked up Gase's system, and was finally starting to thrive with a semi-competent team. The hater pool here had kinda...well, it had fallen mostly silent. It's good to see some of you have gotten your mojo back in Tannehill's absence.

Good to see you again, Shouright.

 

[ANUFan]

For me it's more in game situations where I mean. Of course, I am not looking up stats, but it seems like when we need a first down to keep the defense off the field to seal a game or to get into field goal range at the end of a game or God forbid a TD to close out a game, he fails more than succeeds. I may be wrong, but that's just how it seems to me. He seems the opposite of how Tebow was, "unclutch". Tebow only seemed to turn it on when the heat was on.

Ahhhh so that's what's really on your mind "Tebow!" Of all the QB's in the league to compare Tannehill's apparent shortcomings to you chose Tebow.

Tell me where is the great Tebow? What team in the league does he currently play for?

 

[LargoFin]

Your completion % numbers are wrong.

You said ALL indications. Did you mean all except passer rating, completion %, and YPA?

And if his leveling off is 12th best (based on QB rating) in the league, what then? Because that's where he was in 2016.

You are right, I was looking at the wrong spreadsheet. I fixed it.
You did not look at the QBR. In total QBR he was 24th in 2016, and he was 15th in 2014. He had less attempts, less contribution to the team in 2016. And had more interceptions for the volume, and did not rush as much.
in the end, okay! He was better in 2016. But how much better? Better by throwing at 67.1% instead of 66.4%. Better by throwing for 389 attempts instead of 590, for less total yards, less total TDs, and more picks, but better YPA, and better by taking less sacks. he was better in passer rating but not much better in QBR. That much better he was.

 

[SCOTTY]

Thanks for that.. I have others buried more deeply in the bowels of one of 2 HDs, but for starters these should suffice on both metrics:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...atter-ryan-tannehill-struggles-under-pressure

http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachp...best-deep-ball-thrower-via-deep-ball-project/

Really cool analysis. I like it. Fyi his under pressure percentages are not correct. Not sure where he got them for but that is mute. They all are off by about 6% if you just divide using his stats. Tanny does have 4th best accuracy not under pressure. Not sure how much the bubble screen or check down effects but that is def a plus I didn't expect from him. Only 5 qbs have worse accuracy under pressure: Goff (r) Fitzpatrick, barkley (basically r) Keenum and wentz(r). Not the best company but look at wentz and Keenum now lol. There is also a lot of crap O line convo so I checked that out too. 12 of 32 teams had 30% or more passes under pressure. Miami at 34% with 7 teams worse. Interesting not as bad as it seemed. Again thou lots of bubble screens probably help that stat. Cool stats thanks again.

 

[psfign]

Is this really the worst pass in NFL history?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ryan-tannehill-throws-the-worst-pass-in-nfl-history/

looks like there's been tons.

 

[Vaark]

Leveled off?

No.

Here's an indicator for you...in his last 7 games before his injury:

Ryan Tannehill was 6-1. I'm attributing this record to him because your standards seem to be that records in the most team-dependent sport that there is are irrevocably linked to one player.
He had a 70% completion rate.
He had 13 TD and 5 INT

Everybody saw that he'd picked up Gase's system, and was finally starting to thrive with a semi-competent team. The hater pool here had kinda...well, it had fallen mostly silent. It's good to see some of you have gotten your mojo back in Tannehill's absence.

Good to see you again, Shouright.

adding on to that: and instead of the 32nd and 31st ranked OLs, he merely had a bad one ranked in the low 20s

 

[lurking]

Really cool analysis. I like it. Fyi his under pressure percentages are not correct. Not sure where he got them for but that is mute. They all are off by about 6% if you just divide using his stats. Tanny does have 4th best accuracy not under pressure. Not sure how much the bubble screen or check down effects but that is def a plus I didn't expect from him. Only 5 qbs have worse accuracy under pressure: Goff (r) Fitzpatrick, barkley (basically r) Keenum and wentz(r). Not the best company but look at wentz and Keenum now lol. There is also a lot of crap O line convo so I checked that out too. 12 of 32 teams had 30% or more passes under pressure. Miami at 34% with 7 teams worse. Interesting not as bad as it seemed. Again thou lots of bubble screens probably help that stat. Cool stats thanks again.

I don't remember them using bubble screens that much in 2016. is my memory failing me.

 

[SCOTTY]

I don't remember them using bubble screens that much in 2016. is my memory failing me.

Not as much as 17 but it was there. I say bubble for wr screens too. I know its not 100% accurate but i lump them all together. Also, Aj was tearing it up in 16 and play action was a lot better. The stats do show if he's got time he can make completions.

 

[The Goat]

I feel like we've reached the point of the conversation in NBP81's analogy where this is about to occur:

I just wanted to let you all know that I think you're fine gentlemen.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

You are right, I was looking at the wrong spreadsheet. I fixed it.
You did not look at the QBR. In total QBR he was 24th in 2016, and he was 15th in 2014. He had less attempts, less contribution to the team in 2016. And had more interceptions for the volume, and did not rush as much.
in the end, okay! He was better in 2016. But how much better? Better by throwing at 67.1% instead of 66.4%. Better by throwing for 389 attempts instead of 590, for less total yards, less total TDs, and more picks, but better YPA, and better by taking less sacks. he was better in passer rating but not much better in QBR. That much better he was.

The team also had a much higher winning % and the team made the playoffs. In 2014 we were told that the QB rating and passing stats were irrelevant because the team finished 8-8. When the team goes 8-5 in his starts we are told, look at the stats......

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

You are right, I was looking at the wrong spreadsheet. I fixed it.
You did not look at the QBR. In total QBR he was 24th in 2016, and he was 15th in 2014. He had less attempts, less contribution to the team in 2016. And had more interceptions for the volume, and did not rush as much.
in the end, okay! He was better in 2016. But how much better? Better by throwing at 67.1% instead of 66.4%. Better by throwing for 389 attempts instead of 590, for less total yards, less total TDs, and more picks, but better YPA, and better by taking less sacks. he was better in passer rating but not much better in QBR. That much better he was.

Serious questions for you:

Do you think the Dolphins should draft a QB in the first round?

If the book was written on Tannehill by year three with a 8-8 record, is it similarly written for Jamies Winston with a 3-10 record in year 3? If so, should the Bucs draft a QB in the first round? How about Marcus Mariota with a 79 passer rating? Derek Carr is 28-34 with a career passer rating of 87.5. Is he done? Should the Raiders be looking for a QB? Cam Newton's passer ratings the last two years are the two lowest of his career. His career rating is 85. Done? Matthew Stafford is 60-65 as a starter with a career passer rating of 88 and 0 playoff wins. How long does Detroit wait?

 

[SCOTTY]

Serious questions for you:

Do you think the Dolphins should draft a QB in the first round?

If the book was written on Tannehill by year three with a 8-8 record, is it similarly written for Jamies Winston with a 3-10 record in year 3? If so, should the Bucs draft a QB in the first round? How about Marcus Mariota with a 79 passer rating? Derek Carr is 28-34 with a career passer rating of 87.5. Is he done? Should the Raiders be looking for a QB? Cam Newton's passer ratings the last two years are the two lowest of his career. His career rating is 85. Done? Matthew Stafford is 60-65 as a starter with a career passer rating of 88 and 0 playoff wins. How long does Detroit wait?

For me I think Winston, Carr, Mariota and Stafford are very average qbs. As a result their teams are average. All but Stafford are still a lot newer to their career than Tanny. I don't have any clue why the raiders gave such a contract to Carr. I think it's a huge mistake. The Stafford contract was also a mistake that locks them in. Newton is the only outlier. He was drafted 1 year before Tanny but has produced 3 11+ win seasons. Last year might have had a low passer rating but he still won 11 games. If take that trade off any season. The qb class next year is terrible. As such I feel it is imperative to draft one of the top qbs this year in the 1st. Otherwise we lose years of development if tanny can produce or years of competition if he cant.

 

[LargoFin]

Yes I do think all those teams except Carolina cannot afford to pass on a phenom QB and not give themselves a new 4-yr window. Especially the Lions who had waited for 9 seasons with no results.
Newton is a phenom, he’s had 11-5 seasons, had one of historically great MVP seasons, and took the team to the SB. They can roll with him. He is convincing.

The Jags messed up last year by passing on Watson, and he plays for their divisional rival, and they dont have that QB.

In this draft I do not want just any QB. I want Mason Rudolph, in first. In my opinion when you get a chance to draft a guy like that in a situation we are in, just like the Jags last year, you gotta take him.
I dont want other QBs. They are projects and do not scare me playing for division rivals. They will spend time developing them. I dont want to go through development. I want real deal four year window with a phenom.