Tua's Next. Be prepared.

[Buff]

Last 6-10 years are irrelevant.

The conversation is about NOW. Before advising someone to do some research, please actually review the conversation being had so you don't make comments like this.

What does 6 years ago have to do with the 2.1 seconds of clean pocket time by our o line last year? What does 3 years ago have to do with Miami having one of the worst pass blocking O lines in the NFL the last 2 years?

What did Miami do, this off season, to improve on one of the leagues worst pass blocking o lines on the league? They signed one of the leagues worst pass blocking Centers the last 2 years. What did Miami do to counter the injuries this O line faces every year? They drafted a T to assumable fill in for Armstead. What about Wynn? What about Jackson? Their backups are injury prone too. Who's out actual backup Center? We don't have one, unless you count a guy who was moved from LT to LG to RT TO RG to C back to RG because that's the positions he sucked least at

3,4,5,6,7,8,9 or 10 years ago is irrelevant.

You have missed my point. Its not 6 years ago to 10 years ago. Its the last 6 years to 10 years - from 2014 to 2024. Thats inclusive. And someone else bought the O line into the conversation as it was directly relevant to Tua's health behind this O line.

Miami have signed players, drafted players to fill these gaps, play these positions. The post june cuts are still coming, they havent stopped looking or signing. Miami's O line is not one of the worst pass blocking lines in the league. PFF has them 25th, PFN 22nd, The Game day 16th, The Football guys 13th, so really, they are not one the worst O lines.
Brewer was ranked 11 by PFF, cant find anymore individual rankings, so thats what I have to go off.

 

[Buff]

It has been addressed but not successfully. If you think the 30th ranked O line in 2023 is the cat's meow I can't argue with you. It needs to be addressed otherwise this oline is a flash in the pan and will continue to be exposed against quality teams and away from HR.

Its not ranked 30th.

 

[MARINO1384]

Its not ranked 30th.

Was 31st but that was with a ton of backups playing most of the season. Any team will rank badly when your 6th, 7th and 8th sometimes even 9th are all playing together at the same time.

 

[Buff]

Was 31st but that was with a ton of backups playing most of the season. Any team will rank badly when your 6th, 7th and 8th sometimes even 9th are all playing together at the same time.

Well, yes, with the 6th 7th and 8th lineman playing that would be expected, but over the full season, they were not ranked 31st.

 

[TheMageGandalf]

Does it matter? Some here wouldn't sign Tua for a bag of doritos because they don't think he is the one. Thats fine. Realistically he will get big contract just like Lawrence. I'm fine with that because that's how its going to play out no matter what I think.

Wait wait wait...Doritos you say? Nacho cheese or Cool Ranch flavor?

 

[MARINO1384]

Well, yes, with the 6th 7th and 8th lineman playing that would be expected, but over the full season, they were not ranked 31st.

They were for pass blocking. Won only 49% of snaps. Sure there’s a few other sources that measure oline efficiency however those are heavily impacted by sacks/pressures/hurries. In my opinion this is the most accurate as it’s only focusing on if the linemen won their rep. When you look at sources like pff that factor in sacks/hurries/pressures it’s not really accurate since it’s heavily boosted by Tua getting the ball out 0.25 to a half second faster then the majority of the league.

Two or more backups played weeks
4 (2 backups),
6(3)
7(3)
8(4)
9(2)
11(2)
12(2)
13(2)
14 (4)
15 (3)
16(3)
17(3)
18(2)
19(2)

Backups played most of the season however they appeared decent that is until Williams went down and Eich moved permanently to C and then they were really exposed despite being technically healthier the last two games then most of the season.

 

[AquaBlissed888]

quick processing is mental, vision, accuracy. There are things not related to being a big qb, with a rocket arm that can make a qb very good. That's the point, and why its about performance and what the qb has done. You normally want the qb to do more and have wins. There are good gambles from what has been shown to what could come based on talent. But there are qbs who have been very good who weren;t super talented and a ton very talented who never became more than what was thought

I totally agree, these other attributes beyond being physically dominant are essential to be considered great. Tua has shown to have an intuitive feel when passing the ball, excelling with the anticipatory pass... this I love!
I Just don't see his mental processing as something I could highlight as a strength of his. Recognizing patterns within the defense, deciphering coverages, poise awareness while scanning the field etc... these are areas I'd like to see him improve and would need to observe another season before I commit to him long-term.

If I was purely basing this on his stats alone, I would have singed him to a new deal months ago. Stats can be deceptive when you have the greatest YAC weapons available and McDaniel dialing up brilliant plays creating massive separation for the receivers. I wouldn't pay Tua beyond 50m, ideally in the 40-45 range.

 

[Induperator]

The Dolphins might be best suited to Tag Tua to the point where he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

He is set to make 23.1 million this season
He would make 50 million next season (Average of the 10 highest salaries for position.)
He would make 60 million the following year. (Guaranted to get a 20% raise)

So a three year average is 47.6 million dollars. We only get three more years of Tua.. Here are the positives of doing this:

- Not locked into anything should he get injured
- 47.6 million is well below what QB's his age and experience will make over the next 3 seasons.

At any time we can always give Tua a new deal. This gives us three more seasons without over committing to see if Tua can win the big games and get the Dolphins to the Superbowl.

Unless Tua and his agent wanted to give Miami a break for a long term contract. (Say 5 years for 48-50 million per) The Dolphins are better off letting Tua play out the next 3 seasons without offering him a new deal.

 

[Bob512]

The Dolphins might be best suited to Tag Tua to the point where he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

He is set to make 23.1 million this season
He would make 50 million next season (Average of the 10 highest salaries for position.)
He would make 60 million the following year. (Guaranted to get a 20% raise)

So a three year average is 47.6 million dollars. We only get three more years of Tua.. Here are the positives of doing this:

- Not locked into anything should he get injured
- 47.6 million is well below what QB's his age and experience will make over the next 3 seasons.

At any time we can always give Tua a new deal. This gives us three more seasons without over committing to see if Tua can win the big games and get the Dolphins to the Superbowl.

Unless Tua and his agent wanted to give Miami a break for a long term contract. (Say 5 years for 48-50 million per) The Dolphins are better off letting Tua play out the next 3 seasons without offering him a new deal.

No thank you!

First, your math isn't going to work that way. A new contract for Tua will likely lower his CAP hit over these next 3 years (Lawrence is less than $50M total during this same 3 year period based on his new contract). Going the way of the Franchise tag, you are requiring us to take those full CAP hits each year and giving us zero flexibility due to their being no future contract in place to spread things out. For anyone thinking that a contract extension for Tua puts us in CAP hell......this is the worst case scenario.

Second, what happens at the end of 3 years? The QB market will be significantly higher than it is now and you either have to extend Tua when the prices will be higher or you have no QB at all and are going to have to shop the market or draft someone and hope for the best. Additionally, when you don't give Tua a contract this year and force him to play under the franchise tag......the assumption that he is just going to willingly sign an extension after being treated this way goes down significantly in my opinion. At that stage, expect Tua to test the FA market and to keep him, you will likely have to overpay at a time when salaries are higher than they are now. Describing this scenario as the "Dolphins are better off" is absurd.

Third, you want players to be motivated and happy. What message does this send to not only Tua but to the team. You finally have a QB who is a significant contributor and has led the league in some areas we haven't seen around here in a long time. Our journey through the wilderness was long trying to find him.....and this is the type of strategy that will run him out of town.

Overall, this is a terrible strategy that has us paying more money against the cap over these next 3 years (our winning window).

No thank you!

 

[Springveldt]

lol what do you mean where is the money coming from? He currently makes 23m and to get to the 36m I suggested is only a difference of 13m.

The salary cap will go up like another 30m next year. Other players contracts will be reworked. Not rocket science lol.

The question here isn't where is the money going to come from, it's weather Tua is worth 50m+ or not for 6 years, which the jury is still out on.

For the love of God people, this is about the 5th time I’ve posted this for all the “tag him next year, ezy pzy” people who clearly don’t understand the cap.

The franchise tag is projected at $42M next season by OverTheCap. Tua counts zero against the cap next year as he’s not under contract.

Just how do the Dolphins clear that $42M before the start of the season when they are already tight against the cap? The biggest cut of Tyreek at $11M. No other cut is more than $3.6M, so that only leaves restructures.

You are looking at giving Tyreek, Ramsey and Chubb new contracts well into their 30’s to even get close to clearing enough space, and all massively backloaded.

For the guy that said “bye Tyreek and Holland” well Holland isn’t even under contract either and Tyreek saves $11M of the $42M required.

If no long term deal is reached this year Tua is going to be a FA as the Dolphins can’t afford to tag him without completely ruining the roster. A long term deal still gives them the flexibility they want in 25, 26 and 27.

Please just go and spend 10 minutes looking at the cap situation. The Dolphins are already over the projected cap next year and rolling over the space they have now will put them positive again but not by much. They would still need to clear most of that $42M by March somehow.

 

[andyahs]

For the love of God people, this is about the 5th time I’ve posted this for all the “tag him next year, ezy pzy” people who clearly don’t understand the cap.

The franchise tag is projected at $42M next season by OverTheCap. Tua counts zero against the cap next year as he’s not under contract.

Just how do the Dolphins clear that $42M before the start of the season when they are already tight against the cap? The biggest cut of Tyreek at $11M. No other cut is more than $3.6M, so that only leaves restructures.

You are looking at giving Tyreek, Ramsey and Chubb new contracts well into their 30’s to even get close to clearing enough space, and all massively backloaded.

For the guy that said “bye Tyreek and Holland” well Holland isn’t even under contract either and Tyreek saves $11M of the $42M required.

If no long term deal is reached this year Tua is going to be a FA as the Dolphins can’t afford to tag him without completely ruining the roster. A long term deal still gives them the flexibility they want in 25, 26 and 27.

Please just go and spend 10 minutes looking at the cap situation. The Dolphins are already over the projected cap next year and rolling over the space they have now will put them positive again but not by much. They would still need to clear most of that $42M by March somehow.

This will not be the last time you explain it.

 

[GRYPHONK]

Was 31st but that was with a ton of backups playing most of the season. Any team will rank badly when your 6th, 7th and 8th sometimes even 9th are all playing together at the same time.

But, see that's the point I am trying to make.

In fairness, I was wrong about Jackson. He doesn't get hurt every year like I thought, had 1 bad Injury 2 seasons ago, but other then that he's reliable health wise.

Right now, Miami is already starting the season with the 6th linemen from last year as a starter, in Eichenberg.
Wynn, last 5 years the most games he's started was 15. No other season did he start over 10. He averages about 9.5 games starting/ played over the last 5 years.
Then there's Armstead.

Right now, based on the last 5 years of consistent Injuries. Miami has to plan for about 6-9 games, where they will be playing their 6th/7th and 8th linemen together, which you acknowledged we should not expect great play. 6-9 games. We're talking almost half the season here. Most likely the 2nd half.

Brewer, upgrade from Eichenberg, but a HUGE downgrade from Williams pass blocking wise. This is going to be a constant problem all season

 

[OGMarinofan]

For the love of God people, this is about the 5th time I’ve posted this for all the “tag him next year, ezy pzy” people who clearly don’t understand the cap.

The franchise tag is projected at $42M next season by OverTheCap. Tua counts zero against the cap next year as he’s not under contract.

Just how do the Dolphins clear that $42M before the start of the season when they are already tight against the cap? The biggest cut of Tyreek at $11M. No other cut is more than $3.6M, so that only leaves restructures.

You are looking at giving Tyreek, Ramsey and Chubb new contracts well into their 30’s to even get close to clearing enough space, and all massively backloaded.

For the guy that said “bye Tyreek and Holland” well Holland isn’t even under contract either and Tyreek saves $11M of the $42M required.

If no long term deal is reached this year Tua is going to be a FA as the Dolphins can’t afford to tag him without completely ruining the roster. A long term deal still gives them the flexibility they want in 25, 26 and 27.

Please just go and spend 10 minutes looking at the cap situation. The Dolphins are already over the projected cap next year and rolling over the space they have now will put them positive again but not by much. They would still need to clear most of that $42M by March somehow.

Not only is Miami screwed with the cap, there is no way in hell Tua plays under a tag even if we could afford it. That’s fantasy land! Trevor deal screwed us with Tua’s contract. Tua is significantly better than Trevor especially in this offense that is completely tailored to Tua. Grier is in a difficult position. If I was Tua’s agent, I am telling him to sit and not play unless a deal is reached. There is zero benefit to Tua for him to play without a new contract. What if he gets hurt, then his mega payday would likely not happen.

 

[GRYPHONK]

For the love of God people, this is about the 5th time I’ve posted this for all the “tag him next year, ezy pzy” people who clearly don’t understand the cap.

The franchise tag is projected at $42M next season by OverTheCap. Tua counts zero against the cap next year as he’s not under contract.

Just how do the Dolphins clear that $42M before the start of the season when they are already tight against the cap? The biggest cut of Tyreek at $11M. No other cut is more than $3.6M, so that only leaves restructures.

You are looking at giving Tyreek, Ramsey and Chubb new contracts well into their 30’s to even get close to clearing enough space, and all massively backloaded.

For the guy that said “bye Tyreek and Holland” well Holland isn’t even under contract either and Tyreek saves $11M of the $42M required.

If no long term deal is reached this year Tua is going to be a FA as the Dolphins can’t afford to tag him without completely ruining the roster. A long term deal still gives them the flexibility they want in 25, 26 and 27.

Please just go and spend 10 minutes looking at the cap situation. The Dolphins are already over the projected cap next year and rolling over the space they have now will put them positive again but not by much. They would still need to clear most of that $42M by March somehow.

Excellent write up.

I don't think people have realized that 42 million is non flexible. A few of us tried to explain that letting him play put his 5th year option and Miami could franchise Tua was the WORST possible option.

However, great post and write up.

 

[Springveldt]

Not only is Miami screwed with the cap, there is no way in hell Tua plays under a tag even if we could afford it. That’s fantasy land! Trevor deal screwed us with Tua’s contract. Tua is significantly better than Trevor especially in this offense that is completely tailored to Tua. Grier is in a difficult position. If I was Tua’s agent, I am telling him to sit and not play unless a deal is reached. There is zero benefit to Tua for him to play without a new contract. What if he gets hurt, then his mega payday would likely not happen.

Yeah, the fans that think the Dolphins hold all the power here or Tua is going to take a team friendly deal have read the room worse than Grier.

If no long term deal before the season I’d imagine Tua’s agent will be telling him to sit out for as long as the CBA allows him to still get the year credited to him as the Dolphins aren’t rolling with Mike White. Then he walks next season and the Dolphins look like the biggest dumbasses in the NFL.

It’s actually in both parties best interest to get a deal done. I don’t care if the headline figure is $56M AAV, we should only care about the guaranteed and the structure and what year gives the Dolphins an out. (Not that I think they will need it)

The cap illiterate can scream and gnash their teeth over $56M without understanding how it’s actually structured.