Dynastybuilder
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Calvin Johnson was 6'5 240lb with sub 4.4 speed and great hands. He wouldn't get to #3 in this draft.
Very tough call facing Miami Dolphins as the DeVonta Smith/Ja’Marr Chase debate rages
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What leads you to beleive that? If stated my preference to trade down several times.
I am seeing more and more mock drafts having the Dolphins selecting Sewell if they stay at 3. I think a lot of those individuals making their mock drafts assume Miami will sign one of the top free agent WR’s and that is why they think the Dolphins will draft Sewell instead of one of the top 3 WR‘s in this draft class.
I guess we will get a much better idea what the Grier and Flores are leaning toward in the draft after we see how free agency shakes out for the Dolphins.
I guess we will get a much better idea what the Grier and Flores are leaning toward in the draft after we see how free agency shakes out for the Dolphins.
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Miami, like every team, will approach the draft looking at both "needs and value." Looking at Miami's needs I see WRs, LB, RB, iOL in that order. Arguments can be made for TE (can include this with WRs as playmakers), edge rusher, and S.
Every draft is its own entity. I do not automatically rule any positions out other than P, K, LS of course. This draft is especially deep in both QBs and WRs. And this draft also has many prospects that chose not to play who may have made pick #3 relatively simple...Chase, Sewell, Parsons, Rousseau, etc.
Had Miami not drafted Tua last year and appears to be fully committed to him, they wait in line for Shields or Wilson. Or perhaps they try to swap with the Jets if one is deemed their guy because the Jags aren't moving off of Lawrence. So QB is out for drafting at #3.
There is no Bosa or Chase Young in the draft or that would make it an easy call. I don't see Miami thinking Paye or Rousseau meets the needs + value criteria to make either one the call at #3.
Is #3 to high for Sewell? NO! However, Miami spent a 1st and 2nd on bookend T's last year. Jackson is still a kid showing signs he can grow into the position, and Hunt played well the last 5 games of the season at RT. Do they consider Sewell being of such "value" they are willing bypass the playmaker of their choice to kick Hunt inside when it looks like he will solidify RT?
Would Miami like to get a Rb like Harris, Etienne, or Williams? Sure, but not at #3.
Miami is not drafting an iOL at #3. Even the top prospect, Wyatt Davis, is injured.
And then there are the WRs. It seems most would agree it is between Chase and Smith as the cream of the crop with Waddle and Bateman, not too far behind and some think is right there with Chase and Smith. Pitts is obviously high value, particularly as a TE.
So assuming Miami stays at #3, which is a good chance they will not, I see both Chase and Smith fitting the needs + value criteria. To me it gets down to 4 players...Chase, Smith, Sewell, or Parsons.
Why Miami may pass on Sewell and Parsons for Chase or Smith:
If Miami passes on a WR/playmaker at #3 by the time pick #18 is on the board there is a really good chance the following players may "all" be gone...Chase, Smith, Waddle, Pitts, and Bateman.
For Sewell the question becomes does Grier/Flo see drafting Sewell and moving Hunt to Guard along with missing out on one of the top 5 projected playmakers and ending up with a wideout like Moore, St. Brown or Wallace offer more value than perhaps Parsons + Slater or whomever, or Chase/Smith + Collins/Slater or whomever?
For Parsons the question becomes does Greir/Flo see Parsons + Moore/St. Brown/Wallace/whoever at playmaker offer more value than Chase/Smith + Collins/Owusu-Koramoah/Bolton if they are determined to get a LB?
So I see Chase, Smith, Sewell, and Parsons all in play with an outside possibility of Waddle or Pitts if Miami trades down but not out of the top 10.
Is WR the best option for Miami with their 1st pick? No way of knowing. I know Tua looked like he needed help at WR last year. Tua was hesitant to throw to receivers that did not have separation. Smith can give him that and he will learn to trust Chase, at times, throwing into tight coverage because he will win almost all of those. The most significant improvement needed for Miami to challenge for the playoffs is going to be at QB and he "needs" some WRs and there are some that offer "value" as well at #3.
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hoops
Tua time!
he would if the top 2 teams wanted qbs
At the risk of replying to something from several pages ago without seeing if it was discussed on a later page (I skimmed at least)...
It's kind of a catch-22 because there just aren't WRs as thin as Smith in the NFL besides deep threat specialists like DeSean Jackson and Marquis Brown. Paul Richardson is one example of a guy who was super thin and who's durability held him back. Dude looked like a monster at CU (had a similar game to Smith) but he was rail thin and his body just didn't hold up. But Richardson was actually probably a bit thicker than Smith as a senior. Richardson weighed in at 6' 175lbs; Smith was a hair under 6'1 and 170lbs at his pro day last year. I think it's pretty likely Smith was not any higher than that at the senior bowl given he didn't weigh in (in which case: really smart move by Smith).
AJ Green has been the Mendoza line for thin WR1s over the past decade, but he at least has a bmi above 25.
I'm not saying don't draft Smith because of it, but it's not silly to be concerned about it when you're talking about using a top 5 pick.
How much of Smith have you watched, to call him a gadget player?
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I know that every fan loves watching success at the collegiate level. And as fantastic as Ja'Marr Chase was in 2019, Davonta Smith was even more productive in 2020, so there is both a recent bias and a relevance bias as Alabama is the featured team every week of every year and Smith worked well with Tua previously. But, in my estimation, Ja'Marr Chase is better. And this will be hard to hear for most Smith fans, but in most scouts eyes Chase is the clear cut better prospect too. Smith is _extremely_ thin, and also kinda tall, which means he is the absolute easiest body type for a CB to stuff and/or redirect at the LOS. It is almost unquestioned that Smith needs to gain weight, and not just 5 lbs., but more like 20 lbs., maybe more. That's a lot of weight to put on and it's got to be functional muscle. Even then, we're not really sure he can beat that press consistently enough to be the top WR pick. And, after the 20 lbs. weight gain, how much quickness/speed will he lose?
Every year fast guys running against air look great. Every pre-season before the pads go on those guys look ridiculously good. Then when the pads come on, the hitting begins, and the CB's start getting their powerful hands on guys ... most of those WR's start to disappear. Sure, some are flat out good and continue to do well, but almost never at the level before. But the bigger and more powerful receivers barely miss a beat. Chase Claypool was an example of a big guy who easily made the adjustment to the NFL. Tee Higgins was another. Those guys simply weren't considered in the same tier as Jerry Jeudy or Henry Ruggs III this time last year, but those bigger and more physical body types didn't take the hit that the smaller faster guys did. The more powerful WR's handled the dramatic step up in CB physicality with aplomb. Those guys who looked great against air ... were no longer facing air, and came down to earth. That is what most scouts expect to happen to Smith. Sure, he'll get past the jam at the LOS a good amount--he's an elite WR. And when he does, he has elite separation skills meaning he'll have some plays where he's wide open (by NFL standards, not Alabama standards), and after the catch he's explosive as hell so he'll amass some great YAC. But, there will also be a lot of plays he's dominated at the LOS, and the QB will be expecting Smith to be at a spot at a specific time, and either he'll be late or off depth, or simply not where he needs to be for the QB's progression. The play may fail because he can't beat that jam. Enough of those and the OC will stop calling Smith's number so much, and his targets will go down. Smith is nowhere near a sure thing. He's a guy who if he can master that release can become great ... but it's not guaranteed that he can get past that jam. At his current weight, it's a projection at best.
Feverdream
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I was responding to a specific set of assertions that you made.
...and asked a question... don't the attributes that YOU just listed sound like the attributes of a gadget player?
Pro Tip: Yes, would have been an appropriate answer.
Heavy usage of the ‘YOU’ .... may want to check that
I was just jumping into this. But sure, if you want to jump to the conclusion that Smith is a gadget player because someone suggested he needs to go in motion to get free releases, okay then. Smith definitely faced some press coverage and did just fine vs colleges top corners, future nfl corners. His footwork is great. He uses his hands well.
-also please don’t try to say I’m just some Alabama homer. Not at all. I also think Chase is a good receiver, I’ll be happy with either - or waddle - or combos of many others.
I just want some damn talent added to this wr corps
Feverdream
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Ah... you were responding to a post I made for someone else... gotcha.
And I still believe that Smith is fool's gold... until he proves that he can get off the line when playing against older, stronger players with more game savvy that the typical 19 year old sophomore CB from Vanderbilt. If you have to scheme to get him off the line... he isn't a #1 WR.
Like I've said, I think he'll become a nice 2nd WR in the NFL.
And I still believe that Smith is fool's gold... until he proves that he can get off the line when playing against older, stronger players with more game savvy that the typical 19 year old sophomore CB from Vanderbilt. If you have to scheme to get him off the line... he isn't a #1 WR.
Like I've said, I think he'll become a nice 2nd WR in the NFL.
Kamelion4291
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Nobody schemes to get him off the line against press. You haven't watched him play. This much is clear.
Feverdream
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Not in college... vs. young CBs...
You haven't comprehended what I've written. This much is clear.
A post you made to someone else, but anyone can comment. Just seems nonsensical to call a guy who is like a pure wr, a gadget guy. Just because of one little piece of thinking
but absolutely fair and legit point he needs to prove he can do it in the pro’s
He is thin but hasn’t been injury prone yet... could it happen? Yes. He will eventually get hurt but so will Chase and everyone else
Feverdream
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Most think he weighs about 165.
I know that Bama claims he weighs 175, but they claimed Tua was 6'1" and we saw how that played out... (he wasn't 6'1").
By refusing to be weighed and measured at the Senior Bowl, Devonte only made things worse for himself. Now the doubts have only grown. He's rail thin and I don't think his problem will be injury, so much as it will be a simple lack of core strength.
Again, I see a decent career for him, but I don't see him as a 1A stud WR, I just don't. He looks like a complementary piece... and well worth a second round pick.