Very tough call facing Miami Dolphins as the DeVonta Smith/Ja’Marr Chase debate rages

[Travis34]

Who knows, only time will tell

He is indeed one thin man though

 

[Feverdream]

Who knows, only time will tell

He is indeed one thin man though

Don't get me wrong... I am not saying that he is trash... or a bust... or any of those bar room things.

I am saying that he's a huge reach @3, and really unfit to be drafted in the first round at all. He seems like a nice kid, but I just don't think that he is worth the resources that he would cost.

The guy whose career arc that I expect he will follow?

Desmond Howard

 

[TrinidadDolfan]

Miami, like every team, will approach the draft looking at both "needs and value." Looking at Miami's needs I see WRs, LB, RB, iOL in that order. Arguments can be made for TE (can include this with WRs as playmakers), edge rusher, and S.

Every draft is its own entity. I do not automatically rule any positions out other than P, K, LS of course. This draft is especially deep in both QBs and WRs. And this draft also has many prospects that chose not to play who may have made pick #3 relatively simple...Chase, Sewell, Parsons, Rousseau, etc.

Had Miami not drafted Tua last year and appears to be fully committed to him, they wait in line for Shields or Wilson. Or perhaps they try to swap with the Jets if one is deemed their guy because the Jags aren't moving off of Lawrence. So QB is out for drafting at #3.

There is no Bosa or Chase Young in the draft or that would make it an easy call. I don't see Miami thinking Paye or Rousseau meets the needs + value criteria to make either one the call at #3.

Is #3 to high for Sewell? NO! However, Miami spent a 1st and 2nd on bookend T's last year. Jackson is still a kid showing signs he can grow into the position, and Hunt played well the last 5 games of the season at RT. Do they consider Sewell being of such "value" they are willing bypass the playmaker of their choice to kick Hunt inside when it looks like he will solidify RT?

Would Miami like to get a Rb like Harris, Etienne, or Williams? Sure, but not at #3.

Miami is not drafting an iOL at #3. Even the top prospect, Wyatt Davis, is injured.

And then there are the WRs. It seems most would agree it is between Chase and Smith as the cream of the crop with Waddle and Bateman, not too far behind and some think is right there with Chase and Smith. Pitts is obviously high value, particularly as a TE.

So assuming Miami stays at #3, which is a good chance they will not, I see both Chase and Smith fitting the needs + value criteria. To me it gets down to 4 players...Chase, Smith, Sewell, or Parsons.

Why Miami may pass on Sewell and Parsons for Chase or Smith:

If Miami passes on a WR/playmaker at #3 by the time pick #18 is on the board there is a really good chance the following players may "all" be gone...Chase, Smith, Waddle, Pitts, and Bateman.

For Sewell the question becomes does Grier/Flo see drafting Sewell and moving Hunt to Guard along with missing out on one of the top 5 projected playmakers and ending up with a wideout like Moore, St. Brown or Wallace offer more value than perhaps Parsons + Slater or whomever, or Chase/Smith + Collins/Slater or whomever?

For Parsons the question becomes does Greir/Flo see Parsons + Moore/St. Brown/Wallace/whoever at playmaker offer more value than Chase/Smith + Collins/Owusu-Koramoah/Bolton if they are determined to get a LB?

So I see Chase, Smith, Sewell, and Parsons all in play with an outside possibility of Waddle or Pitts if Miami trades down but not out of the top 10.

Is WR the best option for Miami with their 1st pick? No way of knowing. I know Tua looked like he needed help at WR last year. Tua was hesitant to throw to receivers that did not have separation. Smith can give him that and he will learn to trust Chase, at times, throwing into tight coverage because he will win almost all of those. The most significant improvement needed for Miami to challenge for the playoffs is going to be at QB and he "needs" some WRs and there are some that offer "value" as well at #3.

Post of the year.

Thank you

 

[Travis34]

Don't get me wrong... I am not saying that he is trash... or a bust... or any of those bar room things.

I am saying that he's a huge reach @3, and really unfit to be drafted in the first round at all. He seems like a nice kid, but I just don't think that he is worth the resources that he would cost.

The guy whose career arc that I expect he will follow?

Desmond Howard

Well if we draft him I’m hoping for Marvin Harrison. If we don’t, I don’t really care if he busts or not

 

[AMakados10]

How many small or light receivers also get the recognition Smith did in college?

How many small or light receivers prove to be as dominant as Smith was?

Could it be that Smith is just special?

What Keyshawn seems to miss is, just because there are not many successful receivers with Smith's body size, does not mean Smith can't succeed or be special.

In the NFL at 6'1, Smith is going to end up putting a bit of muscle, so by 2022 or 2023, Smith at worst will be 6'1 185 to 190, but what Keyshawn fails to talk about is, Chase chose not to take part in College or the Senior bowl this year, and went from 200 to 207. Not only did Chase not show the same love to play football like Smith did this year, but while at home he did not have the same drive to succeed to still workout at home, and stay in shape, instead of allowing himself to gain weight.

......

Was reading all thread to see when someone would mention that Smith has the frame to put on 10 lbs of muscle.

 

[Kamelion4291]

Not in college... vs. young CBs...

You haven't comprehended what I've written. This much is clear.

Oh, I've comprehended it just fine. What you're actually saying is that every single WR in college in any year should get downgraded and have question marks about their abilities to play against press because they're not playing against 27 year olds in college (duh?).

It may be the most pointless reason to post I've ever seen.

 

[ONole1]

Fun Fact: Going back 20 years (2001) there have been 28 receivers drafted in the top 10. Of those 28 ONLY three have won Super Bowls and one was not with the team that drafted him.

2014 - Sammy Watkins - KC 2020 (drafted by the Bills)
2014 - Mike Evans - TB 2021
2008 - Jordy Nelson - GB 2011

I don't like picking receivers in the top 10. IMO it's just not a good ROI on them, they do not touch the ball enough or make enough of an impact. Top 10 picks to me are QB, OT, CB, Edge, and sometimes LB. Outside of that I just don't see the value.

 

[Kamelion4291]

Fun Fact: Going back 20 years (2001) there have been 28 receivers drafted in the top 10. Of those 28 ONLY three have won Super Bowls and one was not with the team that drafted him.

2014 - Sammy Watkins - KC 2020 (drafted by the Bills)
2014 - Mike Evans - TB 2021
2008 - Jordy Nelson - GB 2011

I don't like picking receivers in the top 10. IMO it's just not a good ROI on them, they do not touch the ball enough or make enough of an impact. Top 10 picks to me are QB, OT, CB, Edge, and sometimes LB. Outside of that I just don't see the value.

WR has always been one of the 5 "golden" positions. Top 10 teams are usually drafting top 10 for a reason i.e. they're not good. Considering Tom Brady has won 7 of those Super Bowls in the past 20 years, it's not a big sample size for an argument for all of the others. You're talking about literally 13 games.

If the Falcons defense had held on to a 28-3 lead then Julio Jones would also be on that list so I don't understand this kind of an argument.

 

[ONole1]

WR has always been one of the 5 "golden" positions. Top 10 teams are usually drafting top 10 for a reason i.e. they're not good. Considering Tom Brady has won 7 of those Super Bowls in the past 20 years, it's not a big sample size for an argument for all of the others. You're talking about literally 13 games.

If the Falcons defense had held on to a 28-3 lead then Julio Jones would also be on that list so I don't understand this kind of an argument.

I'll let you do the research, but I don't believe the losing team in the SB had a receiver from the top 10, or very few. My point is receivers don't make enough impact on a team to warrant a top 10 pick (IMO). I understand Miami is in a different situation as they have the #3 pick, but they missed the playoffs by one game. If they decide to draft a receiver then I will support it, but think there is too much value in this draft for receiver.

I'd love to see Miami sign Samuels then wait until round 2-3 to get a receiver. I have been saying for months too that I would not be shocked if Miami's first pick is a CB.

 

[ChitownPhins28]

I was more for Chase a while back but now Im in more of a mindset of "you dont have to fight for jump balls if the DB is nowhere near you cuz you separated faster than a Hollywood couple."

 

[ChitownPhins28]

Still, Im now believing that Fields is worth a trade-up for a QB-needy team so we're likely to now be in a position where our choice will be made for us, and that choice could very well be Waddle at 7 or 8 and I like it a lot.

 

[Kamelion4291]

I'll let you do the research, but I don't believe the losing team in the SB had a receiver from the top 10, or very few. My point is receivers don't make enough impact on a team to warrant a top 10 pick (IMO). I understand Miami is in a different situation as they have the #3 pick, but they missed the playoffs by one game. If they decide to draft a receiver then I will support it, but think there is too much value in this draft for receiver.

I'd love to see Miami sign Samuels then wait until round 2-3 to get a receiver. I have been saying for months too that I would not be shocked if Miami's first pick is a CB.

35% of Super Bowls since 2001 have been won by QBs drafted no higher than the 6th round. I don't think it's worth it to invest resources in that position when you can find guys later...

I think it's a big mistake to look at the Super Bowl as the barometer of how to build a team because it's such a ridiculously small sample size. There are almost 270 games played and you're looking at 1 out of the 270 or 0.3% of the games to determine the impact of a particular position. If you wanted to be thorough, you look at WRs and their impact on scoring offenses instead relative to the rest of the league. They are just one piece in the goal towards winning, but you're lumping them into a stat (wins) half of which is completely out of their control as defense factors in.

The top 9 offensive teams this year all made the playoffs. Can't say the same with defense. The top 3 passing offenses made the Championship game with the 4th team being the Packers with MVP Aaron Rodgers. From those teams you're looking at Kelce, Hill, Adams, Diggs, Beasley, Evans, and Godwin in the passing game. That's a lot of firepower in the final 4 teams to make the argument that WR isn't an impact position.

 

[rent this space]

Don't get me wrong... I am not saying that he is trash... or a bust... or any of those bar room things.

I am saying that he's a huge reach @3, and really unfit to be drafted in the first round at all. He seems like a nice kid, but I just don't think that he is worth the resources that he would cost.

The guy whose career arc that I expect he will follow?

Desmond Howard

losing a fair amount of credibility with that take

 

[TheRevoltingBlob]

35% of Super Bowls since 2001 have been won by QBs drafted no higher than the 6th round. I don't think it's worth it to invest resources in that position when you can find guys later...

I think it's a big mistake to look at the Super Bowl as the barometer of how to build a team because it's such a ridiculously small sample size. There are almost 270 games played and you're looking at 1 out of the 270 or 0.3% of the games to determine the impact of a particular position. If you wanted to be thorough, you look at WRs and their impact on scoring offenses instead relative to the rest of the league. They are just one piece in the goal towards winning, but you're lumping them into a stat (wins) half of which is completely out of their control as defense factors in.

The top 9 offensive teams this year all made the playoffs. Can't say the same with defense. The top 3 passing offenses made the Championship game with the 4th team being the Packers with MVP Aaron Rodgers. From those teams you're looking at Kelce, Hill, Adams, Diggs, Beasley, Evans, and Godwin in the passing game. That's a lot of firepower in the final 4 teams to make the argument that WR isn't an impact position.

The issue isn't the value of WR's. It's the bust rate of ones drafted top 10. Evans and Cooper are the only WR's drafted top half of the 1st that could currently be considered top end options right now.

Teams seem to be able to find much better value in the back half of the 1st and 2nd round at the position. You don't seem to see a big difference in success rate there in comparison to the top of the draft.

I really do like Smith/Chase but I'd be lying if I said I was totally comfortable in making either the highest drafted WR in 14 years. I def want one of them if we can pull off a slight trade down tho.

We already reached on AJax to fill need and ignored a great WR class. I kind of feel like we are doubling down on that mistake w even more drafting for need (Maybe I'm wrong there and we truly believe either Chase/Smith are better prospects than Sewell). But we can't go back, so I'm just going to ride this and hope for the best.

 

[ONole1]

35% of Super Bowls since 2001 have been won by QBs drafted no higher than the 6th round. I don't think it's worth it to invest resources in that position when you can find guys later...

I think it's a big mistake to look at the Super Bowl as the barometer of how to build a team because it's such a ridiculously small sample size. There are almost 270 games played and you're looking at 1 out of the 270 or 0.3% of the games to determine the impact of a particular position. If you wanted to be thorough, you look at WRs and their impact on scoring offenses instead relative to the rest of the league. They are just one piece in the goal towards winning, but you're lumping them into a stat (wins) half of which is completely out of their control as defense factors in.

The top 9 offensive teams this year all made the playoffs. Can't say the same with defense. The top 3 passing offenses made the Championship game with the 4th team being the Packers with MVP Aaron Rodgers. From those teams you're looking at Kelce, Hill, Adams, Diggs, Beasley, Evans, and Godwin in the passing game. That's a lot of firepower in the final 4 teams to make the argument that WR isn't an impact position.

Come on now, you are really gonna pull that out? Tom Brady has 7 of those 20 wins and was in 10 of the 20. If you want to discuss percentages then don't twist them around.

So if you want to go with this year, 13 of the top 20 receivers were not on playoff teams, and 20 of the top 30 receivers were not on playoff teams.