Waddle on the cusp of 1,000 yard rookie season

[Sirspud]

Lack of lateral quickness? It's the way they are using him. It's not that hard to understand.

I agree with the previous poster he does lack a bit of lateral quickness. It's the same as speed. You see it mostly when he attempts to go upfield after the catch - the reason why he doesn't usually get past the first defender, aside from not being one of those big bodied receivers like Landry, is that he is changing direction, the defender squares him up, and he's just not quick enough when he has to change direction to get to either side of the defender and is easily tackled by the legs.

Of course I think that if the Dolphins were able to generate more spacing to their offense he'd have more chances to catch the ball and continue going at speed, which he does have. But you have to think that when the team organized their draft strategy to get him where they did, and when they schemed so many plays that required him to stop and start like that, that they thought he could pick up where he left off in YAC in college. I mean, a bubble screen to a guy who doesn't have lateral quickness is pretty much a wasted play, since the whole point of the play is the get the DB to charge and then make him miss, opening up the space behind him for a 10ish yard gain, but bubble screens we've run with Waddle this year have been wasted plays.

 

[1972forever]

I really haven’t understood those posters who think he was a bad pick. Considering the OC’s he has to deal with and how ineffectively they have used him this season, he has been one of the most productive rookie players in the NFL.

If he was on a top 10 offense in the NFL, he would probably have over 1500 yards this year.

 

[GhostArmOfMarino]

I agree with you there. Of course his YAC will improve with better spacing. So, of course, would Durham Smythe's, and everyone else on the team. Gaskin can't make defenders miss, but he had that sensational catch and run against the Raiders in week 16 that would have been a well remembered play in Dolphins lore if the last few minutes of the game hadn't involved two more lead changes including Fitz's throw when his face was sideways.

But what Waddle is simply not good at is making guys miss. And while that's something that I have observed, it's also something that is statistically tracked- I apologize, I don't know where I saw it, I came across that two weeks ago, and remembered it because it confirmed what I thought I was seeing. And noting on the field the last two weeks made me believe that's changed. The stats show that Waddle was like the third worst player or at least third worst receiver in the league at making the first guy miss. While the overall production is influenced by spacing, not making a guy miss- that's just a one on one matchup that he simply is never winning. He catches the ball and then gets brought down by the closest defender almost all the time, whenever that is. I mean, I've seen Devante Parker, who really isn't a YAC guy unless he catches a slant in stride, catch some passes and just sidestep a guy to get 4-5 yards before the next defender gets there. And Waddle just doesn't do that.

The reason why I say the Dolphins missed their eval on him - I mean we've schemed up more routes and plays for him than all our other players combined, partially due to availability, and the stuff we've been running with him really only makes sense when a guy can catch a pass and elude the nearest defender (like bubble screens). The team traded out of the opportunity to draft a guy with a more downfield body type and play style like chase, and clearly they wanted to pair a QB who excels at ball placement on short routes with a guy who they thought could catch the ball and make defenders miss.

It seems like the ability to either elude or evade tacklers is something more predicated on physical skill and ability than something developed over time, like route running and technique, so I don't know if Waddle will ever get drastically better. It's really not uncommon for guys to make a lot of players miss at the college level because they are just faster than everyone else to struggle to get around guys at the next level when suddenly that aren't head and shoulders faster than the competition.

I'm not so sure Waddle can't make anyone miss, that goes back to what I was saying before, he's not trying to make one guy miss every play, its 2-3-4 defenders in the vicinity.

I also agree everyone would have better YAC with better spacing, but its going to help a guy like Waddle a lot more than a guy like Smythe.

One of the biggest issues though is we hardly ever hit Waddle on the move.

 

[bdizzle00]

Sometime I wonder if I’m watching the same game as some people here. We are crowning a guy who “might” have a chance to hit 1000 yards in a 17 game season who has all of 3 TDS so far and has not caught one deep ball yet, and averages less than 9 yards a catch. I don’t care who’s fault it might be for all of this, he, like Tua and everyone else in the NFL, he is who he is until he isn’t.

His stat line so far this year would be fine for a third round pick, but we gave up more for Waddle than the Falcons gave up for Julio “freakin” Jones.

Im fine if you catch lightning in a bottle and find a Tyreke Hill in the 5th or whatever round he was drafted in, but you don’t trade 2 high #1s and a #4 betting that you found the only other version of Tyreke Hill since then.

 

[GhostArmOfMarino]

Sometime I wonder if I’m watching the same game as some people here. We are crowning a guy who “might” have a chance to hit 1000 yards in a 17 game season who has all of 3 TDS so far and has not caught one deep ball yet, and averages less than 9 yards a catch. I don’t care who’s fault it might be for all of this, he, like Tua and everyone else in the NFL, he is who he is until he isn’t.

His stat line so far this year would be fine for a third round pick, but we gave up more for Waddle than the Falcons gave up for Julio “freakin” Jones.

Im fine if you catch lightning in a bottle and find a Tyreke Hill in the 5th or whatever round he was drafted in, but you don’t trade 2 high #1s and a #4 betting that you found the only other version of Tyreke Hill since then.

You lost me 100% when you said you don't care whose fault it is.

Stop judging players on statistics, statistics require input outside the control of any one player. Start basing your evaluations on what the individual player does, whether it results in an incompletion or a long TD is irrelevant, you're just looking at that one player.

 

[Delvin]

We have like 5 good players. Waddle is one of them. As he should be drafted 6th. That's how top 5-10 picks should work.

 

[Sirspud]

I really haven’t understood those posters who think he was a bad pick. Considering the OC’s he has to deal with and how ineffectively they have used him this season, he has been one of the most productive rookie players in the NFL.

If he was on a top 10 offense in the NFL, he would probably have over 1500 yards this year.

I can't speak for others - I've never called Waddle a bad pick. He's a productive player as a rookie and that is much more rare at the receiver position than most fans want to realize when these guys are drafted. However, I can see in Waddle something that is emblematic of the underwhelming nature of our front office as a whole. I can see that Waddle is productive while at the same time seeing that there are things the team was really banking on him being able to do for their offense to thrive making electric plays and that's just not played out.

Let's look at it this way - the Dolphins at #3 had their pick of any offensive skill player in the draft. If you would have asked me then if that player would contribute 1,000 yards their rookie year, I'd think that sounded pretty good. But if you look at the whole picture and realize we added this player and yet the team would go through half a season with just two sloppy wins and an offense that's entirely devoid of explosion whatsoever, I mean that's disappointing. If you have the #3 pick the expectation is the player is really gonna change the way that side of the ball plays when they are up to speed. The expectation is that the player drafted is going to bring some type of explosion or some kind of calling card skill that's gonna bring big plays somewhere over the course of the season. And adding Waddle AND having him be productive really hasn't changed much for the offense at all.

I think the problem is that the flashes of real game breaking potential and upside just haven't played out like you would have hoped. Where he was drafted, and with the opportunity we had, you really would have hoped to see the potential for a Julio Jones like-player- a guy who when he was on and healthy just was uncoverable everywhere on the field. And what we've gotten is closer to Roddy White - a guy who produces and helps out your offense but just isn't really the reason you've ever gonna win a football game either.

I think most of us who have watched this front office over the last few years feel like they just have a ceiling of being able to draft players who are at their best above average but never elite players.

 

[bdizzle00]

You lost me 100% when you said you don't care whose fault it is.

Stop judging players on statistics, statistics require input outside the control of any one player. Start basing your evaluations on what the individual player does, whether it results in an incompletion or a long TD is irrelevant, you're just looking at that one player.

When you put too much emphasis on who is at fault and not actual production, it is another way of pointing out that a player has "potential". Potential means nothing until it's realized. When Waddle, or literally any other player in the NFL actually starts playing like a star, I will treat them as such.

As far as what Waddle has done so far, he has been an average WR this year who has had a ton of targets because all of our other WRs are always hurt, and no where near the type of player who is worth what we gave up to get him. I'm confident we did not draft Waddle to average less than 9 yards a catch.

I like Waddle, but I haven't seen anything YET that screams special to me. Hopefully it changes but unless he becomes a HOFer, he's never going to be worth what we gave up to get him. We could've had Justin Jefferson with #18 last year and not had to reach for Waddle.

Additionally, we need to move the goalposts for what a good season is for a WR. Averaging 58 YPG and getting 1000 yards in a season is not really anything to get excited about anymore.

 

[Sirspud]

When you put too much emphasis on who is at fault and not actual production, it is another way of pointing out that a player has "potential". Potential means nothing until it's realized. When Waddle, or literally any other player in the NFL actually starts playing like a star, I will treat them as such.

As far as what Waddle has done so far, he has been an average WR this year who has had a ton of targets because all of our other WRs are always hurt, and no where near the type of player who is worth what we gave up to get him. I'm confident we did not draft Waddle to average less than 9 yards a catch.

I like Waddle, but I haven't seen anything YET that screams special to me. Hopefully it changes but unless he becomes a HOFer, he's never going to be worth what we gave up to get him. We could've had Justin Jefferson with #18 last year and not had to reach for Waddle.

Additionally, we need to move the goalposts for what a good season is for a WR. Averaging 58 YPG and getting 1000 yards in a season is not really anything to get excited about anymore.

For me I actually am looking at POTENTIAL instead of just production. I mean Waddle could end up with 1,000 yards, but if through the course of the season the one time you remember him making a play that changed the game, and that happened to be a safety for the other team, I mean where's the upside?

A guy can get to 1,000 yards just by showing up every week. And hey, we certainly know there are way worse things. But you want more than just compilers. You want to see a guy that, when the team needs a play to win the game, has something that the defense might not be able to stop. Where is that ability from Waddle?

The coaches that been in this league for a long time say, when the game is on the line, think players, not plays. Think Stefon Diggs and the Minnesota Miracle or whatever - just a ball thrown up for grabs that a big time receiver high pointed, stayed upright through contact, and toed the line to the end zone. Think of Santonio Holmes grabbing a Roethlisberger throw out midair in the corner of the end zone. I'm just not sure that Waddle really has the potential to make those kind of plays, and the thing he was supposed really good at (YAC) just really doesn't seem to be playing when he's not facing the lesser defenders he saw in college.

 

[bdizzle00]

For me I actually am looking at POTENTIAL instead of just production. I mean Waddle could end up with 1,000 yards, but if through the course of the season the one time you remember him making a play that changed the game, and that happened to be a safety for the other team, I mean where's the upside?

A guy can get to 1,000 yards just by showing up every week. And hey, we certainly know there are way worse things. But you want more than just compilers. You want to see a guy that, when the team needs a play to win the game, has something that the defense might not be able to stop. Where is that ability from Waddle?

The coaches that been in this league for a long time say, when the game is on the line, think players, not plays. Think Stefon Diggs and the Minnesota Miracle or whatever - just a ball thrown up for grabs that a big time receiver high pointed, stayed upright through contact, and toed the line to the end zone. Think of Santonio Holmes grabbing a Roethlisberger throw out midair in the corner of the end zone. I'm just not sure that Waddle really has the potential to make those kind of plays, and the thing he was supposed really good at (YAC) just really doesn't seem to be playing when he's not facing the lesser defenders he saw in college.

Fair enough, but as long as we are using the word "potential" when discussing a player, we are discussing potential that has yet to be realized.

 

[NBP81]

It's obvious he can catch the ball and get open. Anyway you slice it if you get 1,000 yards as a rookie receiver that's pretty impressive. That said, what the Dolphins did to draft him, and how they've used him, really suggests they thought he'd be electric with the ball in his hands. I think they really envisioned a guy who could turn short passes into long gains regularly. And unfortunately he doesn't show any ability to make defenders miss or get past them after the catch.

The production is something to be excited about. Happy to have him on the team. But, through no fault of his own, I think the front office and coaching staff evaluated Waddle to be able to things he hasn't been able to do on the NFL field.

There's an incredible amount of his catches where his route is running him directly out of bounds or hit him while he's stationary... This coaching staff is clueless... The more I see this team play, the less I feel comfortable bitching about any player, they're getting run by clowns.

 

[Sirspud]

There's an incredible amount of his catches where his route is running him directly out of bounds or hit him while he's stationary... This coaching staff is clueless... The more I see this team play, the less I feel comfortable bitching about any player, they're getting run by clowns.

Look, we all know the coaching staff sucks. We know the line inhibits the offense. Still, I've looking physically at what Waddle actually does when he is facing a defender one on one in the open field. And sure enough, he just doesn't have a skill that let's him get past that defender. He's not that big and he's not shifty enough to where the defender isn't able to easily grab him and bring him down.

I've seen Parker easily dodge the first tackle in this offense. Some people wanted to believe Lynn Bowden was a future star because he could take a 4 yard pass and make two guys miss to get 8 yards. It's not impossible, even in this offense.

It's not that dissimilar to what I've been saying about Gaskin last year and in the offseason. We all know the line is so bad that right now our backs are basically getting hit at or behind the line of scrimmage every play. Not much they can do about it, that's a dead play. Let's just ignore that. What does Gaskin do when he has one of those opportunities where he does get the ball to the second level? He doesn't have any calling card skill to get past a defender and thus has not, in his entire NFL career, taken a long run to the house.

People need to watch Waddle critically and independently of what the numbers say. At some point versus Baltimore he's probably gonna catch a ball and have just one defender around him. It doesn't matter if it was a ten yard or fiften yard pass. Just look at what he's able to do or not do against the defender. And then watch what other players do in the same or similar situations.

 

[Delvin]

Look, we all know the coaching staff sucks. We know the line inhibits the offense. Still, I've looking physically at what Waddle actually does when he is facing a defender one on one in the open field. And sure enough, he just doesn't have a skill that let's him get past that defender. He's not that big and he's not shifty enough to where the defender isn't able to easily grab him and bring him down.

I've seen Parker easily dodge the first tackle in this offense. Some people wanted to believe Lynn Bowden was a future star because he could take a 4 yard pass and make two guys miss to get 8 yards. It's not impossible, even in this offense.

It's not that dissimilar to what I've been saying about Gaskin last year and in the offseason. We all know the line is so bad that right now our backs are basically getting hit at or behind the line of scrimmage every play. Not much they can do about it, that's a dead play. Let's just ignore that. What does Gaskin do when he has one of those opportunities where he does get the ball to the second level? He doesn't have any calling card skill to get past a defender and thus has not, in his entire NFL career, taken a long run to the house.

People need to watch Waddle critically and independently of what the numbers say. At some point versus Baltimore he's probably gonna catch a ball and have just one defender around him. It doesn't matter if it was a ten yard or fiften yard pass. Just look at what he's able to do or not do against the defender. And then watch what other players do in the same or similar situations.

Parker has a YAC/R (yards after catch) of 3 yards. Waddle has a YAC of 4.1 yards.
Parker has a YACON/R (yards after contact) of 0.9 yards. Waddle has a YACON/R of 1.2 yards.

Instead of just watching, let's just look at the data. It's clearer.

2023 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros

View 2023 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats including Yards After Catch, Average Depth of Targets, Catchable Passes, and more. See how WRs perform across the NFL's key metrics.

www.fantasypros.com

 

[Lionstone]

Sometime I wonder if I’m watching the same game as some people here. We are crowning a guy who “might” have a chance to hit 1000 yards in a 17 game season who has all of 3 TDS so far and has not caught one deep ball yet, and averages less than 9 yards a catch. I don’t care who’s fault it might be for all of this, he, like Tua and everyone else in the NFL, he is who he is until he isn’t.

His stat line so far this year would be fine for a third round pick, but we gave up more for Waddle than the Falcons gave up for Julio “freakin” Jones.

Im fine if you catch lightning in a bottle and find a Tyreke Hill in the 5th or whatever round he was drafted in, but you don’t trade 2 high #1s and a #4 betting that you found the only other version of Tyreke Hill since then.

We trade back, acquired more picks, and got an impact receiver. Sounds good to me. Stats are not the be all and end all of a situation. The impact he has on the offense is more important than the stats. Gesicki and Waddle carry this offense on their backs. Given all the spacing errors, either the coaching is poor or the other receivers do not listen in class. I am shocked anyone is unhappy with the pick, but obviously some of you are unhappy.

 

[Lionstone]

We have like 5 good players. Waddle is one of them. As he should be drafted 6th. That's how top 5-10 picks should work.

I have seen enough good reps from Phillips and Brandon Jones to add them to the list. Waddle is definitely making an impact.