Waddle on the cusp of 1,000 yard rookie season | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Waddle on the cusp of 1,000 yard rookie season

Gesicki was like a lot of rookies, struggling to find himself his first year. That's very common at TE and also common at receiver. The thing is, Waddle has found his footing in the league. He has had some struggles being careless with the ball, failing to reel in some catches he should have gotten, but that really popped up in the first month of the season and hasn't even been an issue recently. His inability to get away from defenders - I mean its not something happening because he's just a struggling rookie. Guys struggle because they have trouble learning new offense, they have trouble honing their techniques against better coverage, they have trouble being asked to to things they weren't asked to do in college, and because they have to do more to fight for catches in tight windows than they would in college. Getting away from a defender is really just a case of athleticism and ability. You don't really become significantly, faster, shiftier, and more elusive, though you can become marginally stronger with effort.

I've reviewed Waddle tape again and he is fast enough on the NFL field that if given some good space in stride he'll make good plays. Those things would come into play more if he was playing on an honest offense, not one that can't protect, throw deep, or run the ball. But his elusiveness and a certain ability to get going again once he's stopped, it's below average, and I do think the Dolphins expected that to play a lot better on the field than it did when he was drafted.
I agree with most of everything you said, I also think with our lack of a running game and teams being able to play zone coverage it's not like he's just trying to beat one Defender it seems like there's two to three guys there almost every time. And I don't trust or believe in any of our staff's evaluations of anything pre or post draft. Tight ends absolutely seem to have a huge learning curve in the NFL, but even after year two more than half of this forum had Gesicki labeled a bust, that's more or less what I was trying to point out
 
Gisecki was a second round pick. Waddle cost us more than most franchise QBs do. The expectations should not be comparable.

For us to have spent what we spent for him, and then to only be able to use him the way he's been used is a travesty. There is no possible way Grier and Flo planned for Waddle to be a high volume catch low YPC and low YAC type guy spending that much draft capital to get him.
I agree nor did they anticipate running backs barely getting 20 carries a game, I'm personally not over evaluating any players with the clown show of an offensive scheme
 
Gisecki was a second round pick. Waddle cost us more than most franchise QBs do. The expectations should not be comparable.

For us to have spent what we spent for him, and then to only be able to use him the way he's been used is a travesty. There is no possible way Grier and Flo planned for Waddle to be a high volume catch low YPC and low YAC type guy spending that much draft capital to get him.
We received net positive draft value and Waddle as a result of the three way trade. If you look at just the Eagles side of the transaction, then I guess you could make your case. It is a three way trade. To calculate the value you need to know the pick values below from the out dated NFL pick value chart.

3rd pick 2021: 2200
6th pick 2021: 1600
12th pick 2021: 1200
123rd pick 2021: 49
156th pick 2021: 29
2022 SF 1st round: 1000
2022 MIA 1st round: 1000
2022 SF 3rd round: 190
2023 SF 1st round: 1000

Net: 1600 + 1000 + 1000 +190 +29 - 2200 - 1000 - 49 = 3809 - 3249 = 560 => 34th pick 2021
 
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Kudos to the kid for a good rookie season. Must be hard when all they throw you is five yard routes.
 
A lot better route tuner then I first thought. Had a few drops and a muffed punt but also some good TDs. No big plays I was hopping to see one this year, still plenty of time
 
Look, we all know the coaching staff sucks. We know the line inhibits the offense. Still, I've looking physically at what Waddle actually does when he is facing a defender one on one in the open field. And sure enough, he just doesn't have a skill that let's him get past that defender. He's not that big and he's not shifty enough to where the defender isn't able to easily grab him and bring him down.

I've seen Parker easily dodge the first tackle in this offense. Some people wanted to believe Lynn Bowden was a future star because he could take a 4 yard pass and make two guys miss to get 8 yards. It's not impossible, even in this offense.

It's not that dissimilar to what I've been saying about Gaskin last year and in the offseason. We all know the line is so bad that right now our backs are basically getting hit at or behind the line of scrimmage every play. Not much they can do about it, that's a dead play. Let's just ignore that. What does Gaskin do when he has one of those opportunities where he does get the ball to the second level? He doesn't have any calling card skill to get past a defender and thus has not, in his entire NFL career, taken a long run to the house.

People need to watch Waddle critically and independently of what the numbers say. At some point versus Baltimore he's probably gonna catch a ball and have just one defender around him. It doesn't matter if it was a ten yard or fiften yard pass. Just look at what he's able to do or not do against the defender. And then watch what other players do in the same or similar situations.

This is just incredibly inaccurate.

There have maybe been 2-3 times all year Waddle caught the ball on the move against one defender, on those plays he did turn the corner and gain additional yardage.

The rest he has either been stationary with the defender closing on him or there have been 2-3 defenders directly behind the initial defender, which means you just aren't going to get YAC.
 
We received net positive draft value and Waddle as a result of the three way trade. If you look at just the Eagles side of the transaction, then I guess you could make your case. It is a three way trade. To calculate the value you need to know the pick values below from the out dated NFL pick value chart.

3rd pick 2021: 2200
6th pick 2021: 1600
12th pick 2021: 1200
123rd pick 2021: 49
156th pick 2021: 29
2022 SF 1st round: 1000
2022 MIA 1st round: 1000
2022 SF 3rd round: 190
2023 SF 1st round: 1000

Net: 1600 + 1000 + 1000 +190 +29 - 2200 - 1000 - 49 = 3809 - 3249 = 560 => 34th pick 2021
First, It was not a 3 way trade. The second trade was independent from the first one and was completely unnecessary.

Second, Miami's First round pick in 2022 will have a value closer to 2000 than to 1000.
 
This is just incredibly inaccurate.

There have maybe been 2-3 times all year Waddle caught the ball on the move against one defender, on those plays he did turn the corner and gain additional yardage.

The rest he has either been stationary with the defender closing on him or there have been 2-3 defenders directly behind the initial defender, which means you just aren't going to get YAC.
Not true. I rewatched all of his catches from several games. Most he couldn't do much with. But there were several he could.
 
We received net positive draft value and Waddle as a result of the three way trade. If you look at just the Eagles side of the transaction, then I guess you could make your case. It is a three way trade. To calculate the value you need to know the pick values below from the out dated NFL pick value chart.

3rd pick 2021: 2200
6th pick 2021: 1600
12th pick 2021: 1200
123rd pick 2021: 49
156th pick 2021: 29
2022 SF 1st round: 1000
2022 MIA 1st round: 1000
2022 SF 3rd round: 190
2023 SF 1st round: 1000

Net: 1600 + 1000 + 1000 +190 +29 - 2200 - 1000 - 49 = 3809 - 3249 = 560 => 34th pick 2021
To put things into better perspective:

The Ravens gave up 2 second round picks and a 4th for Lamar Jackson
The Bills gave up a #12 and 2 second round picks for Josh Allen
The Chiefs gave up a #16, a #27, and a third round pick for Pat Mahomes
The Dolphins gave up a top 5 pick, a #12, and a third round pick for Jaylen Waddle. Even if we were decent this year and our pick was in the 15-20 range, we would still have given up more for Jaylen Waddle than what most other teams gave up for some of the best QBs in the NFL. Absolute insanity.
 
There are so far in regards to his volume and YPC. If that doesn't change it will be a gross misuse of Waddle's skillset.

agreed.

I still don't view their production as being similar. Guys like Landry only get table scraps when guys like Waddle are full.

I liked Landry a lot but more so for his intagibles, I was definitely in favor of trading him given the salary demands.

Regardless, I almost NEVER on board with drafting WR's high. I don't think they make enough of a difference to matter enough to use a 1st round pick on. Let alone what we gave up to get Waddle. No question in my mind I didn't want to do it then and really wish we hadn't now. However, I am not going to hold that against Waddle. I'd much rather have him than not have him. I am concerned about his long term health though, he's going to have us holding our breathe a lot (and has already on multiple occasions this year).

Find me healthy, solid FA WR's and I can do wonders with them if I have an accurate QB, which we do.

Fans want WR's (And shitty GM's who don't know what they are doing).

QB's want an OL and a running game.
 
First, It was not a 3 way trade. The second trade was independent from the first one and was completely unnecessary.

Second, Miami's First round pick in 2022 will have a value closer to 2000 than to 1000.
It may appear that way, but I do not believe they were unrelated. You make decisions based upon the information you have when you make the decision. The value was 1000. That is how the chart works. I have no problem that you would have preferred to stay at 12 and keep the picks. As for me, I will treat it as a 3 way trade with a net gain. That is the most accurate way to consider it.
 
It may appear that way, but I do not believe they were unrelated. You make decisions based upon the information you have when you make the decision. The value was 1000. That is how the chart works. I have no problem that you would have preferred to stay at 12 and keep the picks. As for me, I will treat it as a 3 way trade with a net gain. That is the most accurate way to consider it.
I’m sorry, but that actually is the least accurate way to consider it. Again, the 2 trades were unrelated. The first trade was great, the second trade was terrible, unless the pick was Sewell.

Hopefully Waddle can become a perennial Peo Bowler and the trade will become a little easier to swallow.
 
Sometime I wonder if I’m watching the same game as some people here. We are crowning a guy who “might” have a chance to hit 1000 yards in a 17 game season who has all of 3 TDS so far and has not caught one deep ball yet, and averages less than 9 yards a catch. I don’t care who’s fault it might be for all of this, he, like Tua and everyone else in the NFL, he is who he is until he isn’t.

His stat line so far this year would be fine for a third round pick, but we gave up more for Waddle than the Falcons gave up for Julio “freakin” Jones.

Im fine if you catch lightning in a bottle and find a Tyreke Hill in the 5th or whatever round he was drafted in, but you don’t trade 2 high #1s and a #4 betting that you found the only other version of Tyreke Hill since then.

Waddle is really good when you compare him to basically any WR we’ve had in the last 5yrs. He’s no Jamarr Chase though.

You can tell the majority of the people on here only watch the dolphins.
 
I agree with you there. Of course his YAC will improve with better spacing. So, of course, would Durham Smythe's, and everyone else on the team. Gaskin can't make defenders miss, but he had that sensational catch and run against the Raiders in week 16 that would have been a well remembered play in Dolphins lore if the last few minutes of the game hadn't involved two more lead changes including Fitz's throw when his face was sideways.

But what Waddle is simply not good at is making guys miss. And while that's something that I have observed, it's also something that is statistically tracked- I apologize, I don't know where I saw it, I came across that two weeks ago, and remembered it because it confirmed what I thought I was seeing. And noting on the field the last two weeks made me believe that's changed. The stats show that Waddle was like the third worst player or at least third worst receiver in the league at making the first guy miss. While the overall production is influenced by spacing, not making a guy miss- that's just a one on one matchup that he simply is never winning. He catches the ball and then gets brought down by the closest defender almost all the time, whenever that is. I mean, I've seen Devante Parker, who really isn't a YAC guy unless he catches a slant in stride, catch some passes and just sidestep a guy to get 4-5 yards before the next defender gets there. And Waddle just doesn't do that.

The reason why I say the Dolphins missed their eval on him - I mean we've schemed up more routes and plays for him than all our other players combined, partially due to availability, and the stuff we've been running with him really only makes sense when a guy can catch a pass and elude the nearest defender (like bubble screens). The team traded out of the opportunity to draft a guy with a more downfield body type and play style like chase, and clearly they wanted to pair a QB who excels at ball placement on short routes with a guy who they thought could catch the ball and make defenders miss.

It seems like the ability to either elude or evade tacklers is something more predicated on physical skill and ability than something developed over time, like route running and technique, so I don't know if Waddle will ever get drastically better. It's really not uncommon for guys to make a lot of players miss at the college level because they are just faster than everyone else to struggle to get around guys at the next level when suddenly that aren't head and shoulders faster than the competition.
he wouldn't be dangerous as a kick returned if he didn't have ability to make guys miss. I think the field is so condensed because defense feels not threat from run game and not other wrs. That he's getting tackled right when caught or not space to operate to shift and make dudes miss
 
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