Why the Miami Dolphins will be under .500

[Agua]

Now here is where I have with your analysis, is the fact that you don't even take into account that for the last 5 years, this team was coached by Wanny, and this year we have a coach that was considered to be so good that every year for the last five years, every team that had a coaching vacancy asked about him before signing someone else. Second predicting a teams record should involve a little more than just a talent breakdown. I would've thought the patriots dynasty would've hammered that point home.

Each team is can be greater or less than the sum of its parts and coaching is the glue that determines how well a team is going to bond.

This was the sole thing I was going to point out in reponse to this dude almost immediately after he made the thread, but I didn't figure he was worth the effort. He wholly ignores the biggest improvements we made in the off season and then assigns a record prediction to it. Have any doubts that if Wanny & crew were still here he'd have remembered that part of the equation?

 

[PassRush]

This was actualy a very unbiased, fair post. Though there are some points I dont agree with. The offensive line is good for at least a C+. Hudson Houck is already stirring things up. In Minicamp they looked a lot faster and more coheasive than they did the last few years. Receivers, I think they deserve somewhere in the B+ to A- range based only on depth. We have three receivers with probowl ability, after them on the depth chart we have Bryan Gilmore who can be deadly when going deep, Ron Bellamy with great hands and decent speed and Kendal Newson who is full of potential to become a very good posession receiver. Other than that, good post

 

[Wagon Circler]

He was absolutly a scrambling QB last season for you guys. When he was in there last season and in training camp before injury all he did was take the snap, tuck and run. He has good physical skills, but not a very good head. And lets be honest, before last years draft most of you Bills fans never heard of Losman. You know it. You can say you did, but in all honesty you know you didnt. So in reality you guys dont know what you have in your QB. You've read some things on the net, scene some tape on the local news, and you are basing your season on exactly what us Fin Fans are, HOPE. We HOPE just like you guys are, that all our question marks work out for the positive. If you read the first post in this thread (by whatever his/her name is), every question mark for Miami will not work out. And every question mark for your Bills, in you guys' minds will work out for the positive. But yet we are "Homers"? Does Miami have more question marks than the Bills? Yes, But its a new season, a new season for HOPE. If i'm a "Homer" for thinking Miami will have a better season than the Jills. Great

When he was in there all he did was tuck and run? Oh out of the minimal time he was in, you watched every single bills game the whole season to determine this? Yeah, right. The fact of the matter is he only played in garbage time and mostly handed the ball off. Probably the only game you saw of Losman was the nationally televised game where he was thrown to the wolves in the midst of a blowout at the hands of the superbowl champs.

By the way, a lot of people mention that stupid Ms. Cleo crap on this board, but you take the cake. Telling me that I didn't know who JP was before we drafted him. Can you tell me anything else about my knowledge pool please? Come on, that was just a stupid assumption.

Mod Note: This post is about a Bills quarterback. It doesn't belong in this thread. I'll grant that you were responding to one of our guys, but the problem is that this is how threads go off topic and unravel. If you want to talk about a Bills QB, go start a thread about it in the correct forum and then feel free to link to it from here.

As much as we all love your Bills, we're not going to allow Dolphins threads here to be hijacked and turned into Bills threads. Please be aware that if we see someone do this repeatedly we will block them from posting in the main forum.

Other than those concerns, you're in good standing. Enjoy talking Dolphins football with us here in the Dolphins forum.:)

P4E

 

[DuderinoN703]

I wasn't offended or mad by the original post. Maybe it's that I don't care what a Bills fan has to say about our team. Who knows? :)

 

[Wildbill3]

Frankly, any team that goes 4-12 or worse is a heavy favorite to follow with a losing season, regardless of coaching or personnel changes. In the salary cap era, obviously it's not as overwhelming a favorite as previously. Someone could get a decent gauge simply by looking at teams at 4-12 or worse beginning in '95, or whenever salary cap/free agency began, and finding out how many finished below .500, at .500, above .500 a season later, and what the average improvement has been.

I don't buy your reasoning. IN the age of parity, any team can go from worst to first.

 

[djfresh47]

He was absolutly a scrambling QB last season for you guys. When he was in there last season and in training camp before injury all he did was take the snap, tuck and run. He has good physical skills, but not a very good head. And lets be honest, before last years draft most of you Bills fans never heard of Losman. You know it. You can say you did, but in all honesty you know you didnt. So in reality you guys dont know what you have in your QB. You've read some things on the net, scene some tape on the local news, and you are basing your season on exactly what us Fin Fans are, HOPE. We HOPE just like you guys are, that all our question marks work out for the positive. If you read the first post in this thread (by whatever his/her name is), every question mark for Miami will not work out. And every question mark for your Bills, in you guys' minds will work out for the positive. But yet we are "Homers"? Does Miami have more question marks than the Bills? Yes, But its a new season, a new season for HOPE. If i'm a "Homer" for thinking Miami will have a better season than the Jills. Great

I'm a Dolphins fan, and I would much rather have Jp Losman starting than any Qb on the roster. Comparing him to Feeley is not accurate because, Jp has more ability. Alot of Dolfans won't like to see that written but physically he was as good as any Qb in last seasons draft, while mentally people maybe pushed off by his percieved arrogance, but I like that in a Qb. The injury you speak off was a dirty hit, and most people who heard about the situation would agree, because it was a I believe a non-contact drill in which Troy Vincent broke his leg. Jp Losman was very promising while in the preseason games he played. Calling him a pure scrambling Qb is not a knock, think of this if Aj Feeley who has soo much potential, or so I read about could scramble would anyone complain? This is just my opinion but I thought Losman should've been taken by the Phins last year rather than trading a 2nd for Feeley, and taking Carey with a 1st and a 4th. If Phin fans are gonna knock on him, and I am a loyal Dolfan, but also a realist, would you rather have an unproven, unexperienced 28 yr old in Feeley, or an unproven, unexperienced 24-25 yr old in Losman?

 

[perezferia]

Ok, all knowing Bills fan. I can give you a few reasons your post is off:

First of all, you make the case that even if Ronnie Brown is good, we really don't have anybody behind him (assuming Ricky doesn't come back.) Well, let me ask you, did we have anybody behind Ricky when he was at his peak? The answer is no, and while that was not an ideal situation, we still managed to find our way to 10-6 records. In fact, now that we are 1 year removed from Ricky leaving, we are probably in a better place with Minor and Morris getting some snaps, as well as returning Lamar Gordon from injury. While none of those are household names, Morris proved last year that they could be effective if the O-line holds up (we'll get to the O-line later!)

Then, you go on record as saying that Ricky is 45 pounds under playing weight. You obviously ignored the facts while making this statement, and a simple example of a Bills fan trying to make a situation sound worse than it really is. The lowest reported weight on Ricky since he left was 195 lbs. He was playing @ 225 lbs when he left. I don't know how you do math in Buffalo, but that puts him at 30 lbs lower in my book. Plus, he's reportedly already began working out and beefing up again. And, factor in that this guy has until October to keep gaining weight because of the 4 game suspension he would face. The guy has 3 1/2 months before he can ever step foot onto a field again. I hate to dissapoint you, but he will not be 195 lbs when that time comes.

Next, your O-line take. You mention we've only added McDougal, and then coviently forget to mention that Miami hired Hudson Houck to coach the O-line. He is quite possibly the highest regarded OL coach in the entire league. last season in SD, he took a line of 5 new starters (4 of them new to the Chargers), and built one of the best O-lines in the entire league. Miami would be better on the O-line had they brought nobody in. It's definitley a position that you get better at the longer you have continuity there. Add in McDougal, Houck, and some added depth (such as Cook from Cleveland, and the positive reports thus far on Carey), and I wouldn't want to count on Miami's O-line sucking if I were you.

As far as Miami having "underachieving" WR's, I think a Buffalo fan would know more about this than possibly any other fan in the league. Moulds is a good WR, but never could take the next step to becoming a franchise WR. Josh Reed has been a bitter dissapointment. Perless Price was 1 good season and done in Buffalo, and although Lee had an impressive rookie year, let's wait and see how he does in is Sophmore effort and let's also wait and see how his already f**ked up knees continue to hold up. I would take Chambers, Booker, and Boston over your top 3 anyday of the week. Moulds is better than any of them, but Reed is a non-factor, and Lee is still unproven and a huge injury risk in my book. Oh, and as far as recieving TE's go, you guys have nobody even on the same planet as McMichael.

And most importantly: You can come in here acting like you know what to expect from the Miami Dolphins. But in truth, for the first time in a long time, nobody in the AFC East has an inkling of what Miami will be doing. It will not be the same vanilla defense you're used to faceing, and it will not be the same vanilla offense either. Hell, we don't even know what to expect, so I can't imagine how some Bills fan would.

Buffalo is an AFC East fringe team. You're probably scared (even though you'll never admit it), and you should be. Simply put, from coaches to players, Miami has easily improved more than Buffalo. Buffalo is a team Miami could easily jump up and bite in the ***. Miami is not going to catch the Pats or the Jets, but I wouldn't be suprised at all to see Miami knock Buffalo into the cellar of the division.

AQUAMAN, you're my hero! Excellent post. This gentleman felt compelled to reach out and EXPLAIN to us Dolphin fans WHY we're going to be a sub .500 team.

Allow me to do the same:

The defense should once again be pretty good. Moulds will be good and the other WR's will be bad, especially Evans with the NFL sophmore jinx where opposing coaches figure you out (I am providing exactly the same amount of evidence in these opinions that our frind from Buffalo provided in his).

The entire season depends on the play of JP LOSMAN. Kelly Holcomb cannot help this team win more games. Using the SAME logic that our friend from Buffalo used on Ronnie Brown, that as a rookie the learning curves and mistakes will offer up huge challenges to that player being successful, and also mentioning the fact that Losman doesn't have a superstar backup, I will boldly predict that LOSMAN will play an awful lot like one A.J. FEELEY.

Sure, he'll look good at times, and then he'll lose the game in one bad decision. That's what rookies do. Except for Marino, of course.

So, using the same thinking that our Buffalo friend used, with a good defense (same as Miami) and an unproven and inconsistent offense (same as Miami) with some rookie key starters (same as Miami) I predict that the Buffalo Bills will go 7-9 this year.

Why? When I saw the Bills lose to the Steelers backups last year with the playoffs on the line I formed an indelible opinion as to their coaching staff and heart. Not good.

Miami Will win 10 games this year but sadly will not make the playoffs. We will however, be better than the Bills.

Oh, and please... Explain your opinions if you disagree.

No name calling, OK?

One last thing, even if Losman looks good in pre-season remember, SABAN eats guys like Losman for lunch. Much like our defense ate McGahee up both times we played you guys.

It will be settled on the playing field this year.

Predictions before a single preseason game are beyond meaningless. It's like looking for a hot body in the stands at a Bills game. PLEASE! Those women are huge! Miami girls have to wear revealing clothing because of our warm, year round climate. It makes them very body conscious and that's a VERY good thing!

As for my Bills prediction, hey, I could be wrong!

You guys might go 4-12.

No, really!

GO PHINS!!

GO FINHEAVEN!!

Mod Note: Please read the Mod Note atop the first post in this thread. Likewise, please read the title of the thread.

 

[ChicagoPhinFan]

Dolfan1000, thank you for being the first one to respond point by point with real substance. Up to that point I only saw folks on this board attack oc5er or make a non-responsive remark, OK a couple quips of info but nothing to refute what he said to help change his mind.

I think overall oc5er ranked the Phins on their performance from last year. There is no way the team is as bad as last year and that is not what he took account of, even though he tried to justify it.

As for the WR analysis, he was way off. He must also include RM and now RB in that mix and I love all 5 of those guys - what a set of weapons!! CC may appear to be an underachiever, but how many times have we seen him wide-open for a potential 60 yd+ TD only to have Fiedler over/under-throw him? Is it fair to say 5 times a year? That is 300yds and 5 TDs to his season average. Add that to his average and then factor in all the other shorter passes missed by Fiedler to him. No QB is going to make them all but Fiedler missed him a lot. Also, because Fiedler couldn't throw deep and the line couldn't hold the rush long enough, they took less chances to go deep. In no way can this be blamed on CC. I agree there are games he is shutdown and he needs to step up more, but overall he is a top NFL wr on a very poor passing team. Put him on the Rams or Vikes and see his numbers skyrocket.

I have to say one last thing - I don't think anyone can honestly give Feeley a fair evaluation. He had so little time to throw, he had receivers that were not allowed to run routes to open things up (so everyone was within a confined area) and he didn't have a good run-support game. I don't care who the QB is, they will not be successful in that situation. Anyone who has played a significant amount of football knows they need time and a chance for an open receiver. Feeley hardly got that. Even when he had time, his WRs weren't usually open. I have faith that he will have a GOOD season because O-line will hold blocks longer and WRs will be allowed to spread things out. Qb position is not as bad as oc5er rated.

 

[gofins]

[Mod Note: This post is fine, but the thread is closed while I sort through it and start doling out lots of time off, maybe even a ban or two. See you all later in the thread.

P4E

Mod Update: Okay... a couple more suspensions and warnings are done. I'm going to re-open this thread. But here's the thing: It's going to stay on topic. It's not a thread about each other... or the Bills... or message boards...

This is a thread about whether or why the Dolphins will be under .500, PERIOD.

ANYONE WHO POSTS ANYTHING OFF TOPIC, PERSONAL AND DEROGATORY, OR SPECIFIC TO ANY TEAM OTHER THAN THE DOLPHINS IS GOING ON VACATION. GOT THAT?

NOW... POST AT YOUR OWN RISK.]



Before I start. If you dont have anything intelligent to post, do us all a favor and DONT RESPOND. This isnt a post to "anger" Dolphins fans, its a post made to counteract all the homerism on this website. Its also my opinion, if you dont agree with it, thats fine. But explain why, dont just say stupid things like "OMG GO AWAY" and "YOURE A BARFALLO BILLS FAN." Thank you.

Quarterbacks: Your Quarterbacks are AJ Feeley and Gus Frerotte. Feeley started 8 games last year behind a poor offensive line and threw for 11 TD's and 15 INT's. Not HORRIBLE, but far from good. Frerotte, a 12 year vet with his 6th different team has never proven to be that great. He had one good year in Minnesota in which he started 2 games and posted 7 TD's and 2 Int's. Other than that, hes been mediocre at best. If your O-line is improved, your quarterback play will be much improved but still, there isnt a LOT of talent here. I give your QB's a C.

Running Backs: Lets ASSUME that Ricky Williams never puts on a Miami Dolphins uniform again. Ronnie Brown was a pretty good college running back had good stats, hes a big guy, strong, he'll be able to take a lot of carries and still run strong. But, he IS a rookie and no one knows how he will perform. And, behind him, who do you have? Virtually no one. Assuming Ricky DOES come back, he hasnt played football in over a year, and hes down like 45 pounds from what he was when he was in football shape. PLUS, who knows WHATS going on in his head. He might come back for one game and decide he doesnt want to play anymore. Hes a headcase who cant be counted on. So, unless Ronnie Brown busts out for like 1,500 yards in his rookie year which is highly unlikely. For THIS season, your running back situation could be a problem. I give them a C+.

Receivers: Miami has got some pretty good receivers. But, underacheivers if you ask me. Chambers has the ability to be the best receiver in the AFC East but he hasn't used it. Only 69 catches and 7 touchdowns last year. Thats just not cutting it. Bringing in Marty Booker was a great pick up, he'll help the Dolphins a lot. And assuming that David Boston can stay healthy. Id say hes good for at least 45 or so catches and a few touchdowns. He is coming off major surgery though and hasnt played in over a year so who knows how he'll perform. Derrius Thompson, we wont even get into him. But, of course, your receivers can only perform well when your quarterback can get them the ball. But, assuming you have fairly good QB play, your receivers should do well. I give them a B.

O-Line: Aside from Stockar McDougle, who has Miami picked up? They didnt even draft an offensive lineman until the 5th round. And hes not starting. Its pretty much the same O-line from last year. And if they preform like they did last year, Miami's offense is in for a loooooong season. Nothing really more to say about these guys. They just need to step their game up. I give them a C-.

D-Line: Your strong point. You lost Ogunleye who was a force which did hurt. But, the Dolphins signed Vonnie Holliday and Kevin Carter, both pretty good pickups. And they still have Jason Taylor. This unit has been pretty solid year in and year out and I think theyll have a good year this year. Taylor should have double digit sacks with ease. With the new additions I give them a B+.

Linebackers: Zach Thomas leads this group. Although hes getting up there in age, hes still preformed quite well every year. Junior Seau is pretty much at the end of his career and doesnt really look like the player he used to be at all. I dont really expect much out of him. Other than those guys the Dolphins are lacking. They drafted Channing Crowder who could be a great player for them, but they really need him to step up immediately. Ill say the Dolphins linebackers will struggle a little early but I expect Crowder to step in nicely with the veteran wisdom of Seau and Thomas to help him. I give them a B-.

Defensive Backs: The Dolphins traded Patrick Surtain :shakeno: which leaves Sam Madison as the leader of the secondary basically. Madison has been in the league for 9 years and isnt getting any younger. Hes clearly not the same player he used to be either. Reggie Howard could be a good player for Miami as hes had a pretty good career thus far. And Will Poole had a pretty decent rookie year, hopefully he can keep it up. The Dolphins got Tebucky Jones who im my opinion is very overrated. New England knew what they were doing when they got rid of him and they only benefited from it. And now Jones is on his 3rd team. Neither of the 1st two teams really had any reluctance in getting rid of him. (And you know its tough for me to say this too because im from Syracuse) Your free safety is Travares Tillman, a former Bills cast off. This guys really got nothing to bring to the table. He was nothing more than a backup in Buffalo and I really dont think hes going to do anything for Miami this year. I give the DB's a C.

Special Teams: Mare is solid as usual. And should be again this year. And Wes Welker turned out to be a great special teams guy for the Dolphins. The Dolphins special teams were pretty solid last year and should be even better this year. I give them an A-.

I expect Miami to win more games than they did last year, no doubt about it. And they MAY even finish at 8-8. But, if you ask me, im going to predict a 7-9 record for Miami. These are my opinions. If you want to know how I feel about the my Bills, Ill tell you that as well. Im not a homer as most people are. If you dont agree with these, tell me why. All I ask is that you post something intelligent, please.

QB: You give our QB's some credit but not as much as I think they deserve. I will say it a million times if I have to: judging Feeley based soley from last year's performance is totally unfair and unjustified. Rob Konrad spoke of the joke of a coaching staff we had on offense and now we have a much better OC. Sure you can say Frerotte has been mediocre at best but worse QB's have gotten into the playoffs.

RB: I am so sick of people talking about Ricky's weight. 20,30, now 45 lbs underweight? First of all maybe he was....back in September of last year!! Who knows what Ricky weighs RIGHT NOW? Putting on 25-30 lbs of muscle in 4-5 months and getting back into football shape is totally doable for an elite athlete. Ronnie Brown is a rookie but we have yet to see what he will be like in the NFL. Far more strengths than weaknesses though. He could turn out to be a Ladanian Tomlinson or a Kajana Carter. I'm leaning towards better than worse. Our backups are virtually no good? Sammy Morris proved his worth running hard behind the worst OL I've ever seen. Also see lots of promise with L. Gordon and Kay-Jay. C+ could be accurate, however, I think maybe a B- or B.

WR: Chambers, Booker,Mc Michael, and Boston deserve an "A" unless they prove otherwise. I don't think Darrius Thompson is anywhere near as bad as some say he is. The fact that our WR's got any yds last season is a miracle.

OL: Our OL will improve no doubt. How could it get any worse? I think the success of this season will majorly depend on the quality of our OL play. (OH GOD NO!!) The addition of Houck will GREATLY improve the coaching of the OL and hopefully the play. C- seems very fair though.

Agree with DL. Would like to see a big improvement in the run defense.

LB: Good stuff. Don't see them struggling too much though. B- or B.

DB: Madison was solid last year. Would have loved to see Will Poole. The rookie from LSU may turn out to be fine. I also have high hopes for Roundtree and Bell. Think we deserve a B or B-.

ST: Agree. I love Welker and Mare is solid.

Now the main thing I disagree with you about is the record. I don't feel like looking up exact games, but I know there were at least 3 games that Miami barely lost last year and could have (or should have?) won. That would make their record 7-9. I think with all of the improvements that they are at least 3 wins better than last year. That would make them 10-6, which could mean playoffs. After saying all of that, I never thought they would have been 4-12 last year!:eek:

 

[gofins]

And you have the Almighty AJ Feeley

Hey, easy now!!:D

 

[snap]

Im done with this topic. You people are hopeless.

My man....maybe you should do a write up on your team....on your board..we here at finheaven are true dolphin fans and to get these type of opinions from a bills fan are not what we typically like. when we play you then you analyze those games....dont bash our coach or players...oh yea...how's travis? :tongue:

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I don't buy your reasoning. IN the age of parity, any team can go from worst to first.

"Can" is not the same as favored to do so. Name one team at 4-12 or worse that was expected, i.e. favored, to have a winning record the following season. Hint: any team you name will be incorrect.

 

[Wildbill3]

"Can" is not the same as favored to do so. Name one team at 4-12 or worse that was expected, i.e. favored, to have a winning record the following season. Hint: any team you name will be incorrect.

what's your point? are you saying a 4-12 team can't make it to be a 12-4 team? If I, or anyone could point to a losing team and make a bet that they would reverse their record the next year, I would be very, very rich. The question you propose is an idiotic one. IF anyone knew that Indy would go from 3-13 to 13-3... or that st louis would win a super bowl... yeah I would've loved to have known the future for those teams. Also with parity, it is a given that if you have four bad teams, one is going to turn it around.

 

[bakedmatt]

Maybe so, but we'll just have to wait and see. The results will speak for themselves.

that's what i heard. so you see how you wasted your time defending this thread?

 

[jd13]

i will tell you why we will have a winning record without being a homer...our offense was centered around ricky who abruptly quit right before training camp...we had season ending injuries to boston, seau, chester and timbo,whose main purpose was to stop the run...our o-line was horrendous...wanny couldnt make a definative decision on a qb...feeley was basically a rookie...our offensive coordinator was a rookie...everything went wrong last year and we were competitive in every game except the mnf game against the jets...now we have a head coach who will not be conservative and has assembled a good staff..the only player that we lost that was of great value was surtain and bowens,who was replaced by traylor...