<O>
☠️ Banned ☠️
I'm increasingly of the view that the key to predicting how Cutler will perform is Jay Ajayi and whether we can establish the running game, or not. If Ajayi can run well and make steady yardage, Coach Gase can afford to be quite conservative in his playcalling for Cutler. However, if Ajayi struggles to get yardage for 1st downs or gets injured, the J-train #23 isn't rolling and Cutler will be more of a big gunslinger and risk increases as he becomes prone to throwing interceptions which have cursed much of his career. In Chicago, Cutler could rely on Matt Forte and the use of bubble screens to make big yardage from explosive plays. Last season Ajayi did his damage with traditional runs from handoff, but has apparently worked on catching the screen passes this offseason.
Currently we have concerns at O-line due to injuries. We are thin at Guard if we are talking about Jesse Davis, an undrafted player who has struggled to make an NFL roster over the past 2 years, now coming in as a starter at Guard. (Davis is a former NY Jets training camp castoff). We also need to see how healthy Pouncey and James are.
I am pretty optimistic that our Defense can improve with the acquisition of players like William Hayes, Laurence Timmons and now Ray Maualuga to stop the run. Our D-line and DBs should be good but I'm an optimist by nature. My concerns go back to the O-line and getting them healthy enough to dominate. O-line Coach Foerster needs to pull off a bit of a miracle if he's relying on players like Davis to come in and succeed at Guard.
I have no idea whether this is definitively true, but I suspect there are few if any teams that can establish a top-notch run game without the threat of an effective passing game. It's too easy to stack eight in the box defensively and stop a run game.
So yes, like you I do believe it's important to have the threat of the run game, but I think that comes primarily from using the threat of an effective passing game to keep defenses honest and off-balance, and from scoring points and not getting too far down on the scoreboard. Obviously when teams are down big on the scoreboard, the run game goes out the window, opposing defenses don't defend against it, and then your passing game can go down the tubes due to defensive pressure on the QB.
The days of compiling the sort of offensive line and running backs who can go out there and steamroll defenses and establish the run, thereby opening up the passing game, are over in my opinion. Nowadays the pass needs to be effective to keep defenses honest and open up the run game.
Ajayi and company surprised some people last year, which led to some big games early on, but the league adjusted quickly. The team will need good quarterback play to surmount that adjustment toward stopping the run by opposing defenses. You have to make 'em pay.