Mock Off Season/ Warning: Includes Substantial Reality | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Mock Off Season/ Warning: Includes Substantial Reality

Kingdom Come said:
Ya top ten talent like Tannehill and Dion Jordan, those guys are always without fail better than guys like Russell Wilson,Tom Brady and Demarcus Lawrence.

There is absolutely nothing whatsoever magical about where a kid gets drafted. The only real difference it makes is in the money he gets. Drafting whole players who have a potential for greatness is how to get value in the draft.

Thinking you are getting a great player because the popular consensus was that the guy was really something is a losers game. It happens over and over again every year without fail.

There will be fifth rounders and URFA's who turn out better than 1st rounders. The better GM's know what to look for and what to avoid. Like complete effing morons doing bong hits with a gas mask on.
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Is this what you did before you came up with this insane offseason?
 
Kingdom Come said:
Ya top ten talent like Tannehill and Dion Jordan, those guys are always without fail better than guys like Russell Wilson,Tom Brady and Demarcus Lawrence.

There is absolutely nothing whatsoever magical about where a kid gets drafted. The only real difference it makes is in the money he gets. Drafting whole players who have a potential for greatness is how to get value in the draft.

Thinking you are getting a great player because the popular consensus was that the guy was really something is a losers game. It happens over and over again every year without fail.

There will be fifth rounders and URFA's who turn out better than 1st rounders. The better GM's know what to look for and what to avoid. Like complete effing morons doing bong hits with a gas mask on.
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The draft is a market consensus on how much potential that player should have. Is that potential always realized? Nope. People get it wrong for lots of reasons including: the player doesn't have their heart in the game, they can't transition to where everyone is just as good an athlete as they are, they don't have enough football IQ, they get hurt and lose something on the way back, etc. There are lots of reasons for drafting being a dark art and why getting 4 out of 7 picks right is a damned good result. But, for the most part, it is more right than wrong when it comes to player value. Oh sure, the "look where they drafted Brady" stories are fun because they a lottery ticket level of win and it highlights that no one is really "a sure thing" (I'm taking to all of you Mayfield people).

"Whole players" are going to be picked higher in the draft because they are "whole" players, hence having a high probability of being good and making an impact. Where the draft falls down and the lottery aspect comes into play is in that evaluations are subjective or the belief that the missing piece(s) can be coached up. Sometimes evaluators just fall in love with a player for one reason or another and that missing piece of their game is just always going to be missing.

The part that you're missing in your rant is not that "fifth rounders and URFA's (can) turn out to be better than 1st rounders", it's how often that happens compared to first rounders being better than a fifth. Playing the "I'll do better by trading down" game only works as a numbers game. If everyone (who stays employed running drafts), over time, is about as good as anyone else at judging talent -- then trading down ONLY works because you can get value for the trade because you have high confidence that you'll still get the player you want and you can turn that trade into more picks, and since the percent of hits in the draft is more or less a constant, more picks means more successes.
 
fin415 said:
The draft is a market consensus on how much potential that player should have. Is that potential always realized? Nope. People get it wrong for lots of reasons including: the player doesn't have their heart in the game, they can't transition to where everyone is just as good an athlete as they are, they don't have enough football IQ, they get hurt and lose something on the way back, etc. There are lots of reasons for drafting being a dark art and why getting 4 out of 7 picks right is a damned good result. But, for the most part, it is more right than wrong when it comes to player value. Oh sure, the "look where they drafted Brady" stories are fun because they a lottery ticket level of win and it highlights that no one is really "a sure thing" (I'm taking to all of you Mayfield people).

"Whole players" are going to be picked higher in the draft because they are "whole" players, hence having a high probability of being good and making an impact. Where the draft falls down and the lottery aspect comes into play is in that evaluations are subjective or the belief that the missing piece(s) can be coached up. Sometimes evaluators just fall in love with a player for one reason or another and that missing piece of their game is just always going to be missing.

The part that you're missing in your rant is not that "fifth rounders and URFA's (can) turn out to be better than 1st rounders", it's how often that happens compared to first rounders being better than a fifth. Playing the "I'll do better by trading down" game only works as a numbers game. If everyone (who stays employed running drafts), over time, is about as good as anyone else at judging talent -- then trading down ONLY works because you can get value for the trade because you have high confidence that you'll still get the player you want and you can turn that trade into more picks, and since the percent of hits in the draft is more or less a constant, more picks means more successes.
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What a load of Huey. All evaluators are not anywhere close to equal, and Miami's have been downright abysmal. If we needed just one OG then Nelson would be a fine pick at 11. However, the Dolphins need two guards and a backup QB who may turn out to be more. If there is a partner for that kind of a deal it is a no brainer.

If the Dolphins were overflowing with cap room and could fill the roster nicely with FA's then maybe go for the optimal talent level. That is about as far from the real case as could possibly be.

Your logic is deeply flawed and unrealistic considering the salary cap situation. Getting one great player will not set the future for the Dolphins. The Dolphins aren't there, and you know it.
 
Kingdom Come said:
What a load of Huey. All evaluators are not anywhere close to equal, and Miami's have been downright abysmal. If we needed just one OG then Nelson would be a fine pick at 11. However, the Dolphins need two guards and a backup QB who may turn out to be more. If there is a partner for that kind of a deal it is a no brainer.

If the Dolphins were overflowing with cap room and could fill the roster nicely with FA's then maybe go for the optimal talent level. That is about as far from the real case as could possibly be.

Your logic is deeply flawed and unrealistic considering the salary cap situation. Getting one great player will not set the future for the Dolphins. The Dolphins aren't there, and you know it.
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Take a step off the ledge for just a second and step to into the light... and take a break from all that axe grinding
  1. We don't know who is good or bad at talent evaluation because those decisions are NEVER made public. All anyone outside of the draft room ever sees is the evaluation tightly coupled to strategic and tactical decisions on value of that pick in a given roll vs. need. These includes decisions around need for a starter now vs. time to get NFL ready (strength, skills, playbook), expected FA impacts, upcoming contracts, return of players from injury, players aging, etc. I will concede that it looks like we've had some bad drafts in the relatively recent past. I'll also go a little out on a limb and go on the record that the last couple of years might actually be ok.
  2. I don't know where you're going with your FA argument because I never raised that issue at all.
  3. I don't know how you could make any commentary about how flawed my logic is based on the salary cap because I never raised that issue at all
All I was commenting on is I disagreed with your post making it seem like drafting is easy if only you were in charge. Drafting is a lot of luck coupled with extracting the value of trading (usually) down. I was also addressing your position on the risk/reward value of those extra picks and how value of those extra picks is mitigated because the later one picks in the draft, the less likely (notice, I said less likely, not it's impossible) you get a starter or star, or in your words, "a whole player".
 
Kingdom Come said:
Ya top ten talent like Tannehill and Dion Jordan, those guys are always without fail better than guys like Russell Wilson,Tom Brady and Demarcus Lawrence.

There is absolutely nothing whatsoever magical about where a kid gets drafted. The only real difference it makes is in the money he gets. Drafting whole players who have a potential for greatness is how to get value in the draft.

Thinking you are getting a great player because the popular consensus was that the guy was really something is a losers game. It happens over and over again every year without fail.

There will be fifth rounders and URFA's who turn out better than 1st rounders. The better GM's know what to look for and what to avoid. Like complete effing morons doing bong hits with a gas mask on.
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Lol Tom Brady and Dion Jordan. I'll counter with Odrick and Misi.

Your anecdotal evidence doesn't stand up to the fact that you are FAR more likely to land top talent in the top 10 and the higher you pick in general. It's not even debatable. I honestly think it comes down to the fact that some fans simply care more about hearing the Dolphins name called more often on draft days. Makes it more interesting or something, I don't know.
 
I completely missed the fact that he is using the PFF ratings...might as well use a Magic 8-Ball.
 
I'm just going to go ahead and head the response to my post off at the pass. Here are some of my (and one of J-Off's) previous posts on this subject. I really should just save them and repost in every year's "let's trade down and get more picks for me to watch on draft day!" threads.

Gonzo said:
Given your understanding of percentages, I'm not sure this will compute, but I'll post it anyways. The most interesting, IMO, is the Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections. I'll take a shot at 1 potential Pro Bowler over 3 potential average starters any day. Also interesting is the fact that you have a 38% chance of landing a Pro Bowler in picks 5-14, only 10 possible spots (between 3-4 Pro Bowlers out of 10), versus 4.4% in picks 74-114 despite 40 possible spots (between 1-2 Pro Bowlers out of 40). So, basically, if you have 1 pick in the 5-14 range, you still have a far greater chance of landing a Pro Bowler than if you have multiple picks in the 74-114 range.

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http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/breaking-down-the-nfl-draft/
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Gonzo said:
Tom Brady... :bobdole: Based on your logic, I should quit my job and just play the lottery, since very basic statistics don't matter. By very basic, I mean, can you tell me how many 6th rounders have become HOFers? One. Soon to be two. There were more future HOFers drafted in the top ten in just the past 5 years than there were in the history of the NFL drafted in round 6. Of the 107 HOFs drafted in the 1st round (if I'm counting correctly, may be +/- a couple), only 20 came at pick 13 or later. That's a solid 18%. Awesome. No difference whatsoever. To recap:

87 between picks 1-12
20 between picks 13-32
35 in the second round.
22 in the third round.
9 in the fourth round.
7 in the fifth round.
1 (eventually 2) in the 6th round.
9 in the seventh (only one post-1970).
39 in the 8th through free agents

So, yeah, put your chips on that Tom Brady square.

Between 2010 and 2013 (too soon to say on anything after that at this point, but Mack is making a very strong case already), I am confident in saying there are likely 4-5 future HOFers chosen before 13. You might get lucky and find 1 or 2 others in all other spots in the entire draft throughout that time. Further, that trend continues when considering the number of All-Pros and starters drafted per position. I'm using HOFers as an easy example, but the math will be the same. Again, these aren't some convoluted stats. These are as basic as you can get. All the Dion Jordans and Tom Bradys in the world don't change those facts. It's very clear that you have a better shot at landing top talent in the top ten.

Now, I'm not saying that a team should never trade out of that spot, but they damn well better get value out of it. That's basic business. A MLB with a serious injury concerns and an overpaid, product-of-the-system, mediocre CB with injury issues himself most certainly don't qualify in this case. You can't even for sure say that either will be starters because of the injuries.

So, let's stop acting like we got surefire starters for what we gave up. We most certainly did not.
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j-off-her-doll said:
All Pro DE's organized by the round selected since 2010:

1st - 23
2nd - 2
3rd - 2
4th - 1
6th -1
UDFA - 3 (all Wake)

Don't know why you'd draft one in the 1st :idk:
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My fear is the obsession with BPA may mean they pick a guy who "falls to us" in a position where our need is not so great just because he is a "big name". tannenbaum gonna tannenbaum.

minkah and mayfield are 2 names I worry about here.
 
Gonzo said:
. I honestly think it comes down to the fact that some fans simply care more about hearing the Dolphins name called more often on draft days. Makes it more interesting or something, I don't know.
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This is so true. The draft is a fantasy for some people.... They don't know much about a player and probably read some good things or watched a highlight video and that is all they need to satisfy their fantasy. Guys just fill all of this players potential with their own imaginations of what the Dolphins players at those positions lack, and this dude will fulfill. It's completely a dream cycle and these guys are high on themselves, smoking their own gas.
 
Stoobz said:
We need DEs. Too bad this draft isn't rife with them.
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Even if Hayes and Fede both walk we still have four on the roster. Branch,Wake,Harris,Malveaux. How many do you want on the 53?

The thread added Joe Ostman,Brian Womac, Tee Simms and Jullian Taylor as a tweener to compete with Malveaux for the 4th spot in case Hayes and Fede walk.
 
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