Tom Brady...
Based on your logic, I should quit my job and just play the lottery, since very basic statistics don't matter. By very basic, I mean, can you tell me how many 6th rounders have become HOFers? One. Soon to be two. There were more future HOFers drafted in the top ten in just the past 5 years than there were in the history of the NFL drafted in round 6. Of the 107 HOFs drafted in the 1st round (if I'm counting correctly, may be +/- a couple),
only 20 came at pick 13 or later. That's a solid 18%. Awesome. No difference whatsoever. To recap:
87 between picks 1-12
20 between picks 13-32
35 in the second round.
22 in the third round.
9 in the fourth round.
7 in the fifth round.
1 (eventually 2) in the 6th round.
9 in the seventh (only one post-1970).
39 in the 8th through free agents
So, yeah, put your chips on that Tom Brady square.
Between 2010 and 2013 (too soon to say on anything after that at this point, but Mack is making a very strong case already), I am confident in saying there are likely 4-5 future HOFers chosen before 13. You might get lucky and find 1 or 2 others in all other spots in the entire draft throughout that time.
Further, that trend continues when considering the number of All-Pros and starters drafted per position. I'm using HOFers as an easy example, but the math will be the same. Again, these aren't some convoluted stats. These are as basic as you can get. All the Dion Jordans and Tom Bradys in the world don't change those
facts. It's very clear that you have a better shot at landing top talent in the top ten.
Now, I'm not saying that a team should never trade out of that spot, but they damn well better get value out of it. That's basic business. A MLB with a serious injury concerns and an overpaid, product-of-the-system, mediocre CB
with injury issues himself most certainly don't qualify in this case. You can't even for sure say that either will be starters because of the injuries.
So, let's stop acting like we got surefire starters for what we gave up. We most certainly did not.