So you say there is a chance?
Theoretically about 15-18%. Miami is a 10.5 to 11 point underdog in the early going. That normally aligns to a money line in the -650 +450 range, so cut the difference to +550 man-to-man number.
In betting on these over/unders, the late scheduling can be pivotal. It's one of the reasons my friends and I liked Cleveland under 6, that they closed with two roadies at Denver and Pittsburgh. That provides flexibility. Cleveland was unlikely to be favored on the road in those games. You can hedge, or partially hedge, the bet by taking Cleveland in the finale without being forced to give a big price. In the Dolphins' case, taking New England as a hedge doesn't make sense because you're forced to give 1/6 or 1/7 odds on the Patriots winning outright.
Everybody was worried about Pittsburgh today in regard to the Dolphins' minuscule playoff opportunity. Meanwhile, I had a much greater stake in the Steelers. I needed them to be motivated next week hosting Cleveland. Now who knows if they'll show up, in an unfamiliar role already eliminated from the playoffs? It could easily be a Browns victory as simply the more motivated team. At least my friends and I are free rolling...win or push.
The potentially devastating aspect of the Dolphin wager, of course, is the number closed at 6.5. This bet should already have been won. It dropped during the horrible preseason, and with the prospect of starting a rookie quarterback. I think I emphasized from the outset of the thread that there wasn't urgency to play Miami over 7.5. The big money guys who move the odds were leaning in the other direction.
Still, I'll root it in. Good luck.