Top 15 draft order as of 12/18/2011 - two games pending

[hoops]

taylor price can play in this league...that was a nice get by jax...he just needs time and someone who believes in him...i know i do

 

[ckparrothead]

deep ball accuracy??? i take issue with that very much...the big arm...i understand that argument...but its plenty good enough...i can understand the kid lacks the physical tools to be drafted with a top 5 pick but i think what he lacks in that regard he makes up for with intangibles and fantastic feet

Well to be honest he completes about 30% of his deep passes (I've verified all these numbers by hand, of course) and considering it's the college level and his receivers are Robert Woods and Marqise Lee...those guys can bail you out of some under throws and also turn that 30% figure into more like a 45% figure when you count up all the defensive pass interference calls they draw.

If I'm being honest with myself his deep ball accuracy isn't great for an NFL player. It's about the average to above average level for an NFL starter, and mostly needs better timing in order to be better. The passes themselves can flutter or not get great spin. I don't think his deep ball is as accurate as T.J. Yates' was, as a for instance.

But there's a key point to note about Barkley's deep ball and that is the decision making. It tends to be NEARLY flawless, which makes up for any accuracy/timing issues that cause passes to go incomplete. There are still probably four games or so I never got round to cataloging but one thing that I could see right away is that there was pretty much only two instances (I think) of him throwing a deep ball that went incomplete because a safety got over and helped the coverage out. Some might say that's a small thing, but maybe it's not. It points to the decision-making on the deep throw. Before you even throw that ball, if you're using your pre-snap and post-snap reads to ensure that you're throwing the ball into single coverage, to a spot where no safety is really going to get involved in the play, then it doesn't matter what your accuracy is like, it doesn't matter how many revolutions you get on the ball or whether it flutters, you've already significantly increased your chances of success on the play purely by decision-making. And when you consider that the rate at which Barkley throws the deep ball is very HIGH on an NFL comparative basis, he's not accomplishing the decision-making record simply by hardly ever throwing it.

How many times have we seen a QB, especially Chad Henne, come off play-action with his back turned to the defense, get his head around, then throw a shot into a crowd of defensive backs that weren't fooled by the play-action?

As for the arm strength stuff...myself, yeah sometimes I am a little disturbed by the sheer lack of numbers when it comes to those 30-40 yard rifle shots. Even more disturbed that if I'm tracking the success/catch percentage of the ones he does throw, they're lower than the success/catch percentage of the "deep ball".

I think Slimm brought up the best point in that regard...in that his arm is still maturing. He's only 3 years out of high school.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I did a pretty in depth study of the strength of schedules, remaining opponents across the board, etc.

I think if Miami loses these next two, which they should, then we should expect them to pick #7 overall behind the Colts, Rams, Vikings, Jaguars, Browns and Buccaneers, most likely in that order.

There are some breaks Miami could catch that would put them higher. For instance if the Bucs somehow come away from the Panthers game with a victory, and then the Panthers get a victory in Week 17 from the Saints because the Saints know they're out of bye week contention, we could jump from #7 to #6 overall. If the Steelers know by Week 17 that they're out of AFC North division champion contention with the Ravens (who swept them in head to head) then they could start pulling their starters against the Browns and hand the Browns an unexpected victory. If that and the above Bucs/Panthers/Saints scenario all play out...then Miami could be picking #5.

But I wouldn't count on that. Essentially, we're already picking #8 overall because the Bucs and Panthers play one another next week and whichever one wins will get scooted behind us in the pecking order. I expect to be picking #7 overall once the Redskins find a way to win one more game, probably against the hapless Vikings. And I expect St. Louis to be picking #2 after the hapless Vikings find a win against the even-more-hapless Caleb Hanie/Nate Enderle/Josh McCown Bears.

The Bills could leap ahead of us on a Strength of Schedule tie, which would induce division tiebreakers, and since we swept them they'd get ahead of us.

But for that to happen, some combination of four of the following would need to happen:

Cardinals beat Bengals
Ravens beat Bengals
Browns beat Ravens
Browns beat Steelers
Texans beat Colts
Jaguars beat Titans
Texans beat Titans (double points)

The "(double points)" means that if the Titans beat the Texans in Week 17, then the Bills would need five of the other six outcomes to happen in their favor...in order to end up with a tiebreak over us.

And I just don't see that happening.

And even if Cleveland is picking ahead of us I don't see that big a deal. They could go after a QB in free agency or by trade. Mike Holmgren has to be feeling the pressure to win pretty soon. He's been there a couple of years and the team just seems to get worse. Colt McCoy was purely his call in the 3rd round and that's not panning out. Maybe he doesn't feel like he has the time for a young guy, especially a non-Luck young guy.

And let's say he doesn't take a veteran...I think he will end up taking Robert Griffin over Matt Barkley. Matt Barkley and Colt McCoy would be fast friends on that team (they already are acquaintances and Barkley lists McCoy as one of the people he'll speak to as he decides whether to come out or not) and that's not a good thing, because I sense a rift developing between the McCoy Family (his dad gets too involved, see BCS Championship Game) and the Browns especially over this whole concussion fiasco. Even before that, Colt has made some curious statements to the press about how he's been handled by the Browns since he's been there. Whoever they take in the 1st round isn't going to understudy Colt McCoy, IMO. He's going to understudy Seneca Wallace. And do you think Matt Barkley is more likely to gain valuable insight from understudying Seneca Wallace, or Robert Griffin III? If they have RG3 sitting behind Seneca then they don't have to change offenses according to who is going to play. They can feel free to get RG3 live reps at his own pace to get his feet wet, and they don't have to run anything special or unpredictable. He'll be learning the offense the way Seneca Wallace runs it, and that offense fits RG3 pretty well. Lots of screens, lots of short stuff, some quarterback movement, and then deep ball. I realize that the last QB that people saw Holmgren being successful with was Matt Hasselbeck, and that looks a little Matt Barkley-ish. But in Green Bay, where Holmgren won a championship, it was Brett Favre...and that's DEFINITELY more Robert Griffin-ish. That's what keeps drawing Holmgren to Seneca Wallace, and that's why he drafted McCoy who has wheels and ran a lot of spread-option at Texas.

Listen I like Matt Barkley and I know Slimm likes Matt Barkley and I know hoops you like him as well. But I don't think this pool of talking opinions is indicative of what you generally find out there about him. Just in the Universal Draft trio by itself, I like him, Simon hates him, and Richard is mixed but thinks he's probably worth a 1st rounder (but more toward the middle or bottom). THAT in my opinion is more indicative of what you find in the league as far as opinion on Barkley.

And this draft process is not made for a Matt Barkley. He's a guy that goes out and wins you football games, takes control of a huddle, leads players, operates an offense and hits you with superb accuracy and fundamentals. He's not going to raise any eyebrows when he gets off the bus. He's not going thoroughly impress you and set your tongue wagging about how incredibly thoughtful and smart he was in his interview. He's not going to leave smoke trails on the ball when he throws at his Pro Day (seriously doubt he throws at the Combine). He's not going to cause any scouts or decision makers to splutter their coffee when they see their stopwatch at the Combine. What he does best, he does during the games, and by the time he gets drafted he'll have not had an opportunity to show that in about 5 months. That's almost half a damn year.

I'm not saying he's falling out of the 1st round or to the bottom of it or anything. I'm just saying that by the time we get to Draft day I'll be surprised if a lot of teams are creaming all over themselves trying to package up a heavy amount of picks to move up and get the guy that hasn't given you anything new to be super impressed with in half a year.

I pointed all that out about Colt McCoy's dad right after Bama knocked him out of the national championship game. I've listened to Texas BOT's talk about what went on with Mack Brown and Colt's dad then, and they didn't paint a pretty picture. Who would've ever thought Colt's dad would be more of a headache than Cecil Newton? So far anyway...

One of the main issues I see with Griffin is the lack of mesh, shallow crossing routes, etc. that he'll have to make in the NFL against tight man coverage. They don't exist in Briles offense. The insane spacing Briles uses with his receivers don't allow for those type of routes. He's running the 4-verticals concept and tagging receiver routes by stressing the seams (safeties) with the vertical stretch.

Griffin checks the box to see how many defenders are in it, and checks to the bubble or smoke screen. I don't see the throws into tight coverage on stick routes in the middle of the field.

His footwork is awkward because of all this. He has a "hop" when he sets up... it's an all arm throw with no footwork. He's never dropped back from under center a day in his life. He has no idea what it means to get depth on his drop from under center, and create seperation from line of scrimmage as quickly as possible. It's the same flaw that Mariucci was working with Gabbert on last year during his workout with him and Ponder. Ponder knew how to do it, he was experienced with it.

Griffin has trouble seeing over the line now playing from the Gun... how's he going to see over it when he isn't able get the proper depth on his drop from under center? He's not. He's going to bail from the pocket early just like Gabbert.

RG3 needs some work in my opinion.

 

[ckparrothead]

I pointed all that out about Colt McCoy's dad right after Bama knocked him out of the national championship game. I've listened to Texas BOT's talk about what went on with Mack Brown and Colt's dad then, and they didn't paint a pretty picture. Who would've ever thought Colt's dad would be more of a headache than Cecil Newton? So far anyway...

One of the main issues I see with Griffin is the lack of mesh, shallow crossing routes, etc. that he'll have to make in the NFL against tight man coverage. They don't exist in Briles offense. The insane spacing Briles uses with his receivers don't allow for those type of routes. He's running the 4-verticals concept and tagging receiver routes by stressing the seams (safeties) with the vertical stretch.

Griffin checks the box to see how many defenders are in it, and checks to the bubble or smoke screen. I don't see the throws into tight coverage on stick routes in the middle of the field.

His footwork is awkward because of all this. He has a "hop" when he sets up... it's an all arm throw with no footwork. He's never dropped back from under center a day in his life. He has no idea what it means to get depth on his drop from under center, and create seperation from line of scrimmage as quickly as possible. It's the same flaw that Mariucci was working with Gabbert on last year during his workout with him and Ponder. Ponder knew how to do it, he was experienced with it.

Griffin has trouble seeing over the line now playing from the Gun... how's he going to see over it when he isn't able get the proper depth on his drop from under center? He's not. He's going to bail from the pocket early just like Gabbert.

RG3 needs some work in my opinion.

I'm 100% agreeing with you on Robert Griffin. He's not my guy. I'm just saying, I wouldn't be surprised if he IS Mike Holmgren's guy. There are a lot of NFL scouts and decision-makers buzzing about him right now. Some are trying to say he could even challenge Andrew Luck for #1 status. But most are telling guys like Tony Pauline that he's a top 10 pick at the worst.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Matt Barkley can overcome any slight deficiencies he has. He's accurate with exceptional ball placement. His arm strength is fine. He gets the ball out where it's supposed to go when it has to be out... particularly in the 3 step passing game, where the ball has to be out the second his back foot hits. In the 5 and 7 step passing game where he's allowed to hitch and gather while going through his progressions, the ball velocity and placement is perfect from opposite hash to sideline.

He's a better prospect than Andy Dalton, who has a weak arm. Dalton was a guy who could only play in a WCO, and couldn't make the required throws in the NFL. All he did was whiff the entire week of the Senior Bowl.

Barkley isn't a physical beast by any stretch, but he'll make a fine quarterback for whoever drafts him. He understands how to play the position.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I'm 100% agreeing with you on Robert Griffin. He's not my guy. I'm just saying, I wouldn't be surprised if he IS Mike Holmgren's guy. There are a lot of NFL scouts and decision-makers buzzing about him right now. Some are trying to say he could even challenge Andrew Luck for #1 status. But most are telling guys like Tony Pauline that he's a top 10 pick at the worst.

Don't doubt it at all. Hell, if Gabbert can go #11, RG3 can go #1. He's outproduced Gabbert virtually 2 to 1 against the same Big-12 defenses that inflate every other Big-12 QB's stats.

 

[datruth55]

I pointed all that out about Colt McCoy's dad right after Bama knocked him out of the national championship game. I've listened to Texas BOT's talk about what went on with Mack Brown and Colt's dad then, and they didn't paint a pretty picture. Who would've ever thought Colt's dad would be more of a headache than Cecil Newton? So far anyway...

One of the main issues I see with Griffin is the lack of mesh, shallow crossing routes, etc. that he'll have to make in the NFL against tight man coverage. They don't exist in Briles offense. The insane spacing Briles uses with his receivers don't allow for those type of routes. He's running the 4-verticals concept and tagging receiver routes by stressing the seams (safeties) with the vertical stretch.

Griffin checks the box to see how many defenders are in it, and checks to the bubble or smoke screen. I don't see the throws into tight coverage on stick routes in the middle of the field.

His footwork is awkward because of all this. He has a "hop" when he sets up... it's an all arm throw with no footwork. He's never dropped back from under center a day in his life. He has no idea what it means to get depth on his drop from under center, and create seperation from line of scrimmage as quickly as possible. It's the same flaw that Mariucci was working with Gabbert on last year during his workout with him and Ponder. Ponder knew how to do it, he was experienced with it.

Griffin has trouble seeing over the line now playing from the Gun... how's he going to see over it when he isn't able get the proper depth on his drop from under center? He's not. He's going to bail from the pocket early just like Gabbert.

RG3 needs some work in my opinion.

You took the words right out of my mouth. I have seen everything on Griffin that you just wrote but I didn't write it here because I didn't feel like arguing with all the Griffin bandwagon people. I mentioned that I thought he bailed from a clean pocket on a video and nearly got stoned for it before ck and hoops backed me up.

Anyway, I'm sure that if Griffin declares and the GMs start to delve into his game tape they'll see the same things and he'll be all over the board. Some GMs will love him some won't but it only takes one. I get the feeling though that Griffin and Landry Jones will be back for their senior seasons...Barkley, I feel, is leaning towards coming out.

 

[finsfanjay13]

From the beginning of RG3's hype this year I said I didn't want him over Luck (obviously) or Barkley. That feeling has yet to change. I still want Kendall Wright, though. :)

 

[hoops]

I pointed all that out about Colt McCoy's dad right after Bama knocked him out of the national championship game. I've listened to Texas BOT's talk about what went on with Mack Brown and Colt's dad then, and they didn't paint a pretty picture. Who would've ever thought Colt's dad would be more of a headache than Cecil Newton? So far anyway...

One of the main issues I see with Griffin is the lack of mesh, shallow crossing routes, etc. that he'll have to make in the NFL against tight man coverage. They don't exist in Briles offense. The insane spacing Briles uses with his receivers don't allow for those type of routes. He's running the 4-verticals concept and tagging receiver routes by stressing the seams (safeties) with the vertical stretch.

Griffin checks the box to see how many defenders are in it, and checks to the bubble or smoke screen. I don't see the throws into tight coverage on stick routes in the middle of the field.

His footwork is awkward because of all this. He has a "hop" when he sets up... it's an all arm throw with no footwork. He's never dropped back from under center a day in his life. He has no idea what it means to get depth on his drop from under center, and create seperation from line of scrimmage as quickly as possible. It's the same flaw that Mariucci was working with Gabbert on last year during his workout with him and Ponder. Ponder knew how to do it, he was experienced with it.

Griffin has trouble seeing over the line now playing from the Gun... how's he going to see over it when he isn't able get the proper depth on his drop from under center? He's not. He's going to bail from the pocket early just like Gabbert.

RG3 needs some work in my opinion.

yep...and that scares me...griffen is gonna want to bail laterally just like gabbert and with that body i just don't think he'll hold up to contact

 

[hoops]

I'm 100% agreeing with you on Robert Griffin. He's not my guy. I'm just saying, I wouldn't be surprised if he IS Mike Holmgren's guy. There are a lot of NFL scouts and decision-makers buzzing about him right now. Some are trying to say he could even challenge Andrew Luck for #1 status. But most are telling guys like Tony Pauline that he's a top 10 pick at the worst.

thats just crazy to me...i mean i could see a physical specimen like cam newton giving scouts some pause maybe to luck being the #1 pick if they were head to head as prospects...but not rg3

 

[ckparrothead]

thats just crazy to me...i mean i could see a physical specimen like cam newton giving scouts some pause maybe to luck being the #1 pick if they were head to head as prospects...but not rg3

There's some cognitive dissonance going on here. A lot of NFL decision makers hated Cam Newton because of the personality, legal histor, etc...but now they see him absolutely tearing up the league and already looking like a top 10 quarterback even as a rookie. Robert Griffin is the version of Cam Newton that doesn't have those personality issues, so getting behind him would be sort of an opportunity to show that you're not behind the times and don't have an archaic way of thinking about QB prospects, you just appreciate the intangibles that an RG3 brings to the table that Cam Newton supposedly did not.

 

[ChrisHanson]

There's some cognitive dissonance going on here. A lot of NFL decision makers hated Cam Newton because of the personality, legal histor, etc...but now they see him absolutely tearing up the league and already looking like a top 10 quarterback even as a rookie. Robert Griffin is the version of Cam Newton that doesn't have those personality issues, so getting behind him would be sort of an opportunity to show that you're not behind the times and don't have an archaic way of thinking about QB prospects, you just appreciate the intangibles that an RG3 brings to the table that Cam Newton supposedly did not.

Great post! I'd also like to add that IMO RGIII is smarter than Luck. In fact, I think he's the better athlete too. He's not, at this time, the better QB, but I see no reason whatsoever why he couldn't one day be equal or better than Luck. Good coaching and exerience would be the two things RGIII needs to get there. Again, IMO.

 

[hoops]

There's some cognitive dissonance going on here. A lot of NFL decision makers hated Cam Newton because of the personality, legal histor, etc...but now they see him absolutely tearing up the league and already looking like a top 10 quarterback even as a rookie. Robert Griffin is the version of Cam Newton that doesn't have those personality issues, so getting behind him would be sort of an opportunity to show that you're not behind the times and don't have an archaic way of thinking about QB prospects, you just appreciate the intangibles that an RG3 brings to the table that Cam Newton supposedly did not.

absolutely...but there's a clear difference physical tools wise in newtons favor...head to head...ones got a body that can handle contact at the position at the nfl level the other doesn't despite both being duel threats...among other things

people are just looking for the next cam newton and rg3 isn't that level...he's not a once a every 10 years or so physical freak who can redefine the game with his legs and his arm...newton was

 

[ChrisHanson]

absolutely...but there's a clear difference physical tools wise in newtons favor...head to head...ones got a body that can handle contact at the position at the nfl level the other doesn't despite both being duel threats...among other things

people are just looking for the next cam newton and rg3 isn't that level...he's not a once a every 10 years or so physical freak who can redefine the game with his legs and his arm...newton was

After 13 games you're proclaiming Newton a "redefiner of the game"? You realize that A LOT of QB's have a few years where they look great only to eventually fade away, right? I'm not saying that Newton will be one of those QB's, but making him some sort of legend after only 13 games is asinine. He's completing less than 60% of his passes, has one more passing TD than he does INT's and a QBR of 82. Fora rookie on that Panthers team he's playing great. Assuming that he's going to the HoF before his first season is over is crazy. Defenses will figure him out and if he can't adapt or change he will fade away.

 

[hoops]

After 13 games you're proclaiming Newton a "redefiner of the game"? You realize that A LOT of QB's have a few years where they look great only to eventually fade away, right? I'm not saying that Newton will be one of those QB's, but making him some sort of legend after only 13 games is asinine. He's completing less than 60% of his passes, has one more passing TD than he does INT's and a QBR of 82. Fora rookie on that Panthers team he's playing great. Assuming that he's going to the HoF before his first season is over is crazy. Defenses will figure him out and if he can't adapt or change he will fade away.

i said when newton was a prospect that he has the kind of duel threat abilities with his legs and his arm that could redefine the game...and so far i'd say that takes been pretty damn money...this isn't me coming on here and talkin jibberish like you after i got to see the kid for 13 weeks this was my take when he was a prospect...

and you guys with the ints...look up peyton mannings rookie int #'s...cam newton has over 30 tds that he's accounted for himself this season...as a rookie with no damn offseason and minicamps to get ready and a defense that blows worse than your takes...this kids legit