Why is everyone so surprised?

[FSU Truth]

You may have just answered 20 questions in one statement. Tannehill's absence is a MUCH bigger problem than any of us expected.

It has been a long time coming but he is finally getting some much needed appreciation.

 

[lurking]

You may have just answered 20 questions in one statement. Tannehill's absence is a MUCH bigger problem than any of us expected.

That's a hard pill for some the swallow.

 

[dolphintodd]

I would appreciate Tannehill more if he was not hurt and actually playing...

 

[<O>]

You may have just answered 20 questions in one statement. Tannehill's absence is a MUCH bigger problem than any of us expected.

I suspect that people didn't expect it to be such a problem because they expected the replacement QB (Cutler) to play much better.

Just because the replacement QB plays very poorly (YPA of 5.9 for example) doesn't mean Tannehill is suddenly all-world.

Tannehill's presence takes the offense from the mess it's in now and raises its performance to simply the average level. His presence alone doesn't make the offense like the Saints' or the Eagles', where the QB's performance alone makes the offense one of the best in the league.

I suspect that in the end this team will finish between 4-12 and 6-10. With Tannehill and all else equal, that likely would've been 8-8.

 

[lemmiwinks]

On the bright side, if Tanehill didn't get injured, he sure as hell would have behind this line.

Let's hope that Tannehill's time on the sideline makes him a better QB going forward. Sometimes getting a different perspective of the game can do good for a player. Perhaps he will develop better pocket presence seeing Cutler and Moore getting destroyed.

I think we still have enough talent on the roster to turn it around next year if we can stay healthy. We need to address this line once and for all and add more depth and competition on the roster.

 

[Lionstone]

I am not surprised. I am disappointed that we have missed some big opportunities. The overall level of talent has improved this year. The starting LBs play the run well and are around the ball. Timmons has good instincts, and it jumps out when you watch the game. I do struggle to understand why our pass defense is performing so poorly. One possibility is lack of understanding of the situation and poor cues from the sideline. I expect a defensive coordinator to send a play call and a hint with the call such as “watch out for the screen.”

There is inexperience at the defensive coordinator position, and it is bound to have an effect.

 

[lurking]

I suspect that people didn't expect it to be such a problem because they expected the replacement QB (Cutler) to play much better.

Just because the replacement QB plays very poorly (YPA of 5.9 for example) doesn't mean Tannehill is suddenly all-world.

Tannehill's presence takes the offense from the mess it's in now and raises its performance to simply the average level. His presence alone doesn't make the offense like the Saints' or the Eagles', where the QB's performance alone makes the offense one of the best in the league.

I suspect that in the end this team will finish between 4-12 and 6-10. With Tannehill and all else equal, that likely would've been 8-8.

I never thought or expected him to play better then Tannahill , I said this at the very beginning when he was signed. This guy is atrocious, and always has been. Our QB play is the reason we're 4-4. I can assure you that if Tannehill was playing we'd be 6-2 at worst.

 

[<O>]

I never thought or expected him to play better then Tannahill , I said this at the very beginning when he was signed. This guy is atrocious, and always has been. Our QB play is the reason we're 4-4. I can assure you that if Tannehill was playing we'd be 6-2 at worst.

It's not that anyone expected him to play better than Tannehill (although some may have -- not I for one) -- it's that they likely didn't expect him to play this poorly.

Also, the pass defense is just as much a reason the team is playing poorly. Based on huge amounts of data from 2004 to 2016, the team would be expected to be 2-6 right now, based on the way it's playing. 4-4 indicates that they've managed to exceed what would be expected, somehow, and no one can really be entirely sure how that's happened.

If Tannehill were here and he were to play in his typical manner, he alone would help the team win 8 to 10 games himself, if the rest of the team played at average levels.

But now factor in how poorly the pass defense has played (it's far from average), and you have to side on the expectation of 8 wins, not 10, if Tannehill were present.

So that explains why I believe the team will finish between 4-12 and 6-10 with Cutler, and why it wouldn't be any better than 8-8 with Tannehill. He'd buy them two more wins -- which is not insignificant -- but the pass defense would keep the team from being any better than that.

Now consider that the team had someone like Aaron Rodgers, just for argument's sake. A QB like that may have gotten this team from 4-12/6-10 to 10-6. He'd likely get them roughly four more wins, despite the pass defense. Tannehill on the other hand is good for two.

In other words, Tannehill alone wouldn't take what's going on and magically make it playoff-caliber. It would take one of the league's top three or so QBs to do that.

Look at what Tom Brady is doing in New England, for example. Their defense is having a very rough year against the run and the pass, similar to the Dolphins' defense against the pass, and Brady and his 106.5 passer rating and 8.1 YPA has the team at 6-2.

It's very unlikely Tannehill would be playing at that level.

 

[lurking]

It's not that anyone expected him to play better than Tannehill (although some may have -- not I for one) -- it's that they likely didn't expect him to play this poorly.

Also, the pass defense is just as much a reason the team is playing poorly. Based on huge amounts of data from 2004 to 2016, the team would be expected to be 2-6 right now, based on the way it's playing. 4-4 indicates that they've managed to exceed what would be expected, somehow, and no one can really be entirely sure how that's happened.

If Tannehill were here and he were to play in his typical manner, he alone would help the team win 8 to 10 games himself, if the rest of the team played at average levels.

But now factor in how poorly the pass defense has played (it's far from average), and you have to side on the expectation of 8 wins, not 10, if Tannehill were present.

So that explains why I believe the team will finish between 4-12 and 6-10 with Cutler, and why it wouldn't be any better than 8-8 with Tannehill. He'd buy them two more wins -- which is not insignificant -- but the pass defense would keep the team from being any better than that.

Now consider that the team had someone like Aaron Rodgers, just for argument's sake. A QB like that may have gotten this team from 4-12/6-10 to 10-6. He'd likely get them roughly four more wins, despite the pass defense. Tannehill on the other hand is good for two.

In other words, Tannehill alone wouldn't take what's going on and magically make it playoff-caliber. It would take one of the league's top three or so QBs to do that.

Look at what Tom Brady is doing in New England, for example. Their defense is having a very rough year against the run and the pass, similar to the Dolphins' defense against the pass, and Brady and his 106.5 passer rating and 8.1 YPA has the team at 6-2.

It's very unlikely Tannehill would be playing at that level.

The pass defense is being exposed mostly due to the offense not being able to stay on the field. For example more offense of snaps means less defense of snaps. Tannahill was playing at the level you're talking about last year before his injury.

 

[Dajesus]

You may have just answered 20 questions in one statement. Tannehill's absence is a MUCH bigger problem than any of us expected.

If anyone thinks Ryan Tannehill would walk in to this offense this season, and everything would be ok you are insane. This time last year Miami was 4-4, and Ryan had 8tds and 6ints and was sacked 19x. This year we are 4-4 our qbs have thrown 12tds 8ints and sacked 17x. Do simple stats tell the whole story? No. Do I think we would be marginally better with Ryan? Yes. The fact is though we didn't win 9 of 11 game because Ryan was some miracle QB who could make up for, bad oline play, no running game, and questionable defense. Infact when those were true he went 1-4, and everyone in the NFL was calling for him to be benched. It wasn't Ryan that turned 1-4 around. It was a new running game that came to life, it was a miracle KR by Drake, it was a miracle pick 6 by Kiko, it was Jay carrying us in 2 games vs Buffalo, it was Ryan have a complete turn around in the last 4 minutes in LA after being horrible for 56 minutes, it was a lot of people stepping up an over coming, not just better QB play. These things haven't happened this year, sans 1 half in Atlanta and 1 quarter vs NY. Ryan is a middle of the road QB who has a ceiling of a top 12 guy if everything is clicking, but is not Tom Brady, Aarron Rogers, Dan Marino, etc etc who can put a team on his back no matter how his oline is blocking, defense is playing, penalties are being commited, and plays being called by the OC. If you think Ryan is a savior you are just being ignorant to how many aspects of the game this team isn't currently failing at.

 

[tcdrover]

They were 4-4 last year with their starting QB

they are 4-4 this year with a QB brought in at the last possible minute before preseason games began.

If the O-line wasn't so inconsistent and if they had the good sense NOT to start Byron Maxwell at the start of the season they probably would have won a couple more games.

The QB play is not why they are 4-4.

Regardless they played much better last week, they can play their new big safety now.

Hopefully the O-line play can be cleaned up

 

[lurking]

If anyone thinks Ryan Tannehill would walk in to this offense this season, and everything would be ok you are insane. This time last year Miami was 4-4, and Ryan had 8tds and 6ints and was sacked 19x. This year we are 4-4 our qbs have thrown 12tds 8ints and sacked 17x. Do simple stats tell the whole story? No. Do I think we would be marginally better with Ryan? Yes. The fact is though we didn't win 9 of 11 game because Ryan was some miracle QB who could make up for, bad oline play, no running game, and questionable defense. Infact when those were true he went 1-4, and everyone in the NFL was calling for him to be benched. It wasn't Ryan that turned 1-4 around. It was a new running game that came to life, it was a miracle KR by Drake, it was a miracle pick 6 by Kiko, it was Jay carrying us in 2 games vs Buffalo, it was Ryan have a complete turn around in the last 4 minutes in LA after being horrible for 56 minutes, it was a lot of people stepping up an over coming, not just better QB play. These things haven't happened this year, sans 1 half in Atlanta and 1 quarter vs NY. Ryan is a middle of the road QB who has a ceiling of a top 12 guy if everything is clicking, but is not Tom Brady, Aarron Rogers, Dan Marino, etc etc who can put a team on his back no matter how his oline is blocking, defense is playing, penalties are being commited, and plays being called by the OC. If you think Ryan is a savior you are just being ignorant to how many aspects of the game this team isn't currently failing at.

Most of the ignorance comes from people that don't realize that one quarterback was in the system for a year and one was not. So that would give one quarterback an advantage. The funny part about it is, the people who dislike Tannehill are the ones using the comparisons to Brady and Rogers.

 

[dirkey]

I never thought or expected him to play better then Tannahill , I said this at the very beginning when he was signed. This guy is atrocious, and always has been. Our QB play is the reason we're 4-4. I can assure you that if Tannehill was playing we'd be 6-2 at worst.

You really can't!

 

[Phinatic8u]

The biggest issue with the pass defense in my opinion is the lack of a safety who has even average pass coverage skills. That allows an awful lot to happen downfield.

Bingo. As much as I love Reshad, he’s pretty meh st coverage.

He’s a playmaker tho.

This team needs Mincah Fitzpatrick to be a ball hawking roaming S. Play 4-2-5 as our primary defense so TJ, Reshad and a stud FS can always be on the field. Although Maurice Smith looked pretty damn decent last week.

 

[JakeemThe Dream]

I suspect that people didn't expect it to be such a problem because they expected the replacement QB (Cutler) to play much better.

Just because the replacement QB plays very poorly (YPA of 5.9 for example) doesn't mean Tannehill is suddenly all-world.

Tannehill's presence takes the offense from the mess it's in now and raises its performance to simply the average level. His presence alone doesn't make the offense like the Saints' or the Eagles', where the QB's performance alone makes the offense one of the best in the league.

I suspect that in the end this team will finish between 4-12 and 6-10. With Tannehill and all else equal, that likely would've been 8-8.

I don't think he's all world at all lol But having the 12th best passer in the league who has legs and knows the receivers would sure makeup for having the 30th best. We can speculate but last time Tannehill was QB he was 8-5. I'd say there is a huge possibility of being 8-8 but a few plays here and there could make us 10-6 or 6-10. Projecting anything that hasn't happened is tough. I do all the time and it never happens lol It's not only about Cutler's play but also they way the team stopped believing and if I were to make my best educated guess I'd say the Tannehill injury really hurt the confidence other players had going into the season. I could be wrong but I think I remember Tannehill being heard saying this is the best team I've ever had after he tore his ACL. I don't think he's all world (would never say that) but compared to Cutler the difference is going from the 12th to the 30th. That's huge. Imagine Tannehill moving up 6 spots rating wise and the difference it would be. 18 spots is just too much to overcome. If we're speculating, imagine this D with just an average offense like you said. We all just want to win in the end...PHINS UP!!