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Calm Down

NBP81 said:
This logic is flawed... You're implying these players pick themselves and all end up in the same situation. This is not the case. Reality is GMs make mistakes and the way things are set up, bad teams get to pick 1st.

I dont think Im being way off making the basic assumption that teams who get to pick first have some flaws in the FO, CS and roster overall. In other words, the fact so many early picks bust is not a reflection of the value of draft picks, it just showcases how much bad teams make terrible decisions with them on top of having those selections playing on bad teams.

Saying its all a gamble anyway is such a lazy cop out IMO...
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While agree with your caveat, but there are instances every year where a top pick is signed by a better team and STILL don't play to draft level. It's not all being on a dysfunctional team. BTW, yes, there are cases where they DO play better. Most interesting to me is the number of teams/experts who think a player will 'change the franchise,' only to have that player bust and prove EVERYONE wrong. Or a low round guy who teams/experts see as 'filler' ends up ALL Pro. As we all know (but all won't admit), anything related to humans is messy with wide variations. Another thing all won't admit - getting a top pick DOES increase the likelihood of success which is why all FH members are happy with 5 day 1 picks.
I don't think the draft is a gamble. More like an educated guess. Investors don't don't have have to be right all the time - just often enough to make money
 
So the people that dont want to go the QB route this year or think it doesnt really matter we get a QB why did we trade tunsil and fitzpatrick for first rounders? To just turn around andraft their replacements? You are ok with that? Fitzpatrick will be in Defensive Player of the year talks. Tunsil will be blocking the backside of Watson in the playoffs this year. Its gonna be hard to draft that haha I was fine with trading them with the idea we would have our pick of the litter at QB.
 
NBP81 said:
Not at all, my logic is draft position matters, I dont give a **** about who you want with that 1st pick, its all opinion... My logic is the ability to pick 1st is all thats left to gain from this season...

You're trying to make it about a particular player. This is not my stance, Im saying tank for the 1st overall pick, and use the advange that comes with it.
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Obviously, Miami won't pick 1st, but you're right . . . the higher the pick the better. It will be much moe fun arguing over who Miami will pick at, say, #3 than #9
 
fansinceGWilson said:
While agree with your caveat, but there are instances every year where a top pick is signed by a better team and STILL don't play to draft level. It's not all being on a dysfunctional team. BTW, yes, there are cases where they DO play better. Most interesting to me is the number of teams/experts who think a player will 'change the franchise,' only to have that player bust and prove EVERYONE wrong. Or a low round guy who teams/experts see as 'filler' ends up ALL Pro. As we all know (but all won't admit), anything related to humans is messy with wide variations. Another thing all won't admit - getting a top pick DOES increase the likelihood of success which is why all FH members are happy with 5 day 1 picks.
I don't think the draft is a gamble. More like an educated guess. Investors don't don't have have to be right all the time - just often enough to make money
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I flat out agree with everything you just wrote.

What I want to emphasize is that while better team make better decisions, it doesnt mean better teams are even close to perfect when it comes to the draft. the top 10 in the draft is, on average, dominated by bad teams, its not an outlandish assumption that alot of mistakes are being made there simply out of a lack of skill IMO.

The major point here is, everything is a gamble... You're always looking for better odds. Picking before your opponents gives you that. It might be a small edge, might be a big edge... Who knows. I dont see how winning 4 games over 2 games in a season gives you any kind of plausible edge...
 
NBP81 said:
I flat out agree with everything you just wrote.

What I want to emphasize is that while better team make better decisions, it doesnt mean better teams are even close to perfect when it comes to the draft. the top 10 in the draft is, on average, dominated by bad teams, its not an outlandish assumption that alot of mistakes are being made there simply out of a lack of skill IMO.

The major point here is, everything is a gamble... You're always looking for better odds. Picking before your opponents gives you that. It might be a small edge, might be a big edge... Who knows. I dont see how winning 4 games over 2 games in a season gives you any kind of plausible edge...
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Agree, but, realistically, the roster is set through game 16 and the players coaches are trying to win. All we can do is watch and hope the FO makes great choices in April
 
Rowdy1972 said:
Haha so we can be in position to take the 3rd or 4th QB in a worse class. That makes sense. Build the team up and hope a QB falls. Sound strategy. Or just lose the rest of the games when you are sitting at 0-7 and get the best QB prospect since Luck. Could have been easy but now we have to have Grier make a decision on a QB now. What can go wrong.
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How do you know they're the 3rd or 4th best? Time machine or crystal ball? Winston and Mariotta went 1 and 2 and neither would be considered franchise.

Fans need to stop thinking that their favorite QB prospect will be the next Marino. If the team is trash the 23 year old QB will be trash too. Takes more than just a draft pick to cultivate a franchise QB in this league.
 
NBP81 said:
What does that have to do with anything? Getting the 1st overall doesnt strip them any picks?
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Did you read the whole post?

It was in reference to the possibility of packaging picks to move up, and how our GM may not be inclined to do that.
 
Ruckus45 said:
How do you know they're the 3rd or 4th best? Time machine or crystal ball? Winston and Mariotta went 1 and 2 and neither would be considered franchise.

Fans need to stop thinking that their favorite QB prospect will be the next Marino. If the team is trash the 23 year old QB will be trash too. Takes more than just a draft pick to cultivate a franchise QB in this league.
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Yeah we will be trash with Rosen leading this team. We have already seen that song and dance. Keep acting like the QB position isnt that important to this team.
 
People on here dont understand..when u pick a qb in top5. He must be ready to play from day one. In 90% of case they are not ready. Teams rush them on field and expect them to be great right out door. That why bears,brown, ten, Tampa,jets are having problem w these young qb. U still need team around them. In 4 yr these team will be drafting another qb in first rd.
 
39wildman said:
People on here dont understand..when u pick a qb in top5. He must be ready to play from day one. In 90% of case they are not ready. Teams rush them on field and expect them to be great right out door. That why bears,brown, ten, Tampa,jets are having problem w these young qb. U still need team around them.
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Fine then. You sit Tua for a year and build the team if you think that. Although I dont think he needs to sit. Most important thing is you get the QB. We dont need to build a ****ing dynasty team before we draft a QB.
 
Mach2 said:
Did you read the whole post?

It was in reference to the possibility of packaging picks to move up, and how our GM may not be inclined to do that.
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Mach2 said:
Stop beating a dead horse. That 1st pick ship has likely sailed.
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Im not sure where you are trying to go with this... My original post in this thread was about how bad the "its all a crap shot" argument is. You replied that my logic was flawed because a QB would be likely to fail on a bad team, which has absolutely nothing to do with the advantages of draft positionning. Then went off the rails about trading up which has absolutely nothing to do with the conversation. If anything, having the 1st overall makes the possibility of trading up NULL.

Again, I dont know what point you are trying to make...
 
I got a question for ya. What’s the shelf life on this coaching offset thing if Miami doesn’t get the difference maker at qb?

how long before the message becomes hollow and the players no longer buy in?

it’s shorter than a rookie qb contract I know that much.
 
Rowdy1972 said:
Fine then. You sit Tua for a year and build the team if you think that. Although I dont think he needs to sit. Most important thing is you get the QB. We dont need to build a ****ing dynasty team before we draft a QB.
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We will see what happens. Qb position is luck. Tua on paper may say he is bes but dont take other qb for granted either. One or two of these qb is going be good in this draft. Idk until they play on sunday
 
I'm not too worried about the quarterback position right now. It looks like a good draft for quarterbacks. Not sure there's an Andrew Luck type prospect out there, but there could be four or five that Miami can win with. Tua, Burrow, Herbert, Eason, Fromm and Love is an intriguing group.

The best thing is it's beginning to look like the Dolphins have the right coach in place. That may be more critical than the quarterback position.
 
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