This logic is flawed... You're implying these players pick themselves and all end up in the same situation. This is not the case. Reality is GMs make mistakes and the way things are set up, bad teams get to pick 1st.
I dont think Im being way off making the basic assumption that teams who get to pick first have some flaws in the FO, CS and roster overall. In other words, the fact so many early picks bust is not a reflection of the value of draft picks, it just showcases how much bad teams make terrible decisions with them on top of having those selections playing on bad teams.
Saying its all a gamble anyway is such a lazy cop out IMO...
While agree with your caveat, but there are instances every year where a top pick is signed by a better team and STILL don't play to draft level. It's not all being on a dysfunctional team. BTW, yes, there are cases where they DO play better. Most interesting to me is the number of teams/experts who think a player will 'change the franchise,' only to have that player bust and prove EVERYONE wrong. Or a low round guy who teams/experts see as 'filler' ends up ALL Pro. As we all know (but all won't admit), anything related to humans is messy with wide variations. Another thing all won't admit - getting a top pick DOES increase the likelihood of success which is why all FH members are happy with 5 day 1 picks.
I don't think the draft is a gamble. More like an educated guess. Investors don't don't have have to be right all the time - just often enough to make money