It's early... but here's my first attempt at a mock

[EJay]

You know that I always opt for the younger players when I can, and Harris, to me, is one of the worst bets in the draft. He's absolutely maxed out, and a bit overage for a high draft pick. Plus, he has never had to make do with less than a stellar line and teammates.

Now Etienne is a much better bet, but he'll be expensive.

You could have made the same arguments about Derrick Henry when he came out in 2016. All of them.

FWIW, Henry had well over 500 more carries than Harris throughout his HS career. And Harris has one less carry through 4 seasons at Bama than Henry had during his 3 seasons.

And regarding Travis Etienne being a "much better bet" -- he's had 774 touches during his 4-year collegiate career versus 670 for Najee.

In summary, Najee is nowhere near as maxed out or overused as you've fooled yourself into believing.

I get you liking the Etienne more, but the reasoning you've cited isn't factual.

 

[EJay]

I'd love to get Javonte Williams. It's not just that he reminds me of Marshawn Lynch in the way he plays and that I think he's underrated as a receiver.

It's the tread on the tires.

He has about half as many carries in college as Najee and Etienne. To me, he's in the conversation with those guys in terms of actual ability, but he might also remain a viable player for a year or two more than either of them.

As I stated a while back, Williams is a player I've really warmed up to. The kid is always falling forward and looking to punish defenders. IDK what his top end speed is, but he is decisive in hitting the hole and just explodes through it. He seems fast enough to me.

In learning about him, he was a LB in HS that was converted to RB. He sure runs with a big chip on his shoulder.

I'll be ok with Harris, Etienne or Williams.

 

[Feverdream]

You could have made the same arguments about Derrick Henry when he came out in 2016. All of them.

FWIW, Henry had well over 500 more carries than Harris throughout his HS career. And Harris has one less carry through 4 seasons at Bama than Henry had during his 3 seasons.

And regarding Travis Etienne being a "much better bet" -- he's had 774 touches during his 4-year collegiate career versus 670 for Najee.

In summary, Najee is nowhere near as maxed out or overused as you've fooled yourself into believing.

I get you liking the Etienne more, but the reasoning you've cited isn't factual.

Big backs tend to tail off quite quickly... and as you've said, Henry came out in 2016 and it right at the edge of where I fully expect him to begin his decline. I wouldn't touch a Henry second contract.

I'm not actually on either of these two... while I'd prefer Etienne's one year younger, and more elusive skillset, I'd really like a 20 year old back before either of them. Javonte Williams is 20.

When I go looking to draft a RB, my first choice is going to be a 3rd year sophomore, or a junior (like Williams) who has not been overused.

 

[Feverdream]

BTW... both Etienne and Harris should have come out last year. They toyed with it, then made the mistake of going back for one more year. Neither really enhanced their draft stock much and now they have one less year to cash in.

 

[EJay]

Big backs tend to tail off quite quickly... and as you've said, Henry came out in 2016 and it right at the edge of where I fully expect him to begin his decline. I wouldn't touch a Henry second contract.

I'm not actually on either of these two... while I'd prefer Etienne's one year younger, and more elusive skillset, I'd really like a 20 year old back before either of them. Javonte Williams is 20.

When I go looking to draft a RB, my first choice is going to be a 3rd year sophomore, or a junior (like Williams) who has not been overused.

Eh, you're overthinking it. Najee will be 23 by draft time. And 27-28 by the time you have to make a decision. Derrick Henry is going to be 27 next week and is arguably the best RB in the league. Top 3 for sure. And quite impactful.

Not suggesting any of these RB's will be the same, but rather showing that 27-28 isn't the end of the lifecycle especially considering all the usage Henry has.

Like you, I would be skeptical regarding a 2nd contract. My idea all long has been to draft a RB on a rookie contract then draft another one when closing in on the end of former's contract. Rinse, repeat. Much cheaper than FA and you'll always have a fresh back.

So a 1 or 2 year difference won't matter.

Lastly, as I pointed out, Najee doesn't have the same heavy usage as others. He was even kept under 300 carries per season in HS.

 

[EJay]

BTW... both Etienne and Harris should have come out last year. They toyed with it, then made the mistake of going back for one more year. Neither really enhanced their draft stock much and now they have one less year to cash in.

Not so certain about that.

Etienne might very well go in the 1st round in this draft. Only 1 back went in the first last draft. And that was CEH with the last pick.

Also think Harris' bump in production in less games this season has increased how high he'll go in this draft versus last draft. Which could mean more $$$.

 

[Feverdream]

Eh, you're overthinking it. Najee will be 23 by draft time. And 27-28 by the time you have to make a decision. Derrick Henry is going to be 27 next week and is arguably the best RB in the league. Top 3 for sure. And quite impactful.

Not suggesting any of these RB's will be the same, but rather showing that 27-28 isn't the end of the lifecycle especially considering all the usage Henry has.

Like you, I would be skeptical regarding a 2nd contract. My idea all long has been to draft a RB on a rookie contract then draft another one when closing in on the end of former's contract. Rinse, repeat. Much cheaper than FA and you'll always have a fresh back.

So a 1 or 2 year difference won't matter.

Lastly, as I pointed out, Najee doesn't have the same heavy usage as others. He was even kept under 300 carries per season in HS.

I don't believe that the rinse/repeat game is necessarily the way to go. If you can draft a young enough RB, then when they come up for a contract, they may only be 24 or so. If you can resign them after their third year to Zach Sieler money (because you are resigning them early), then you can extend their time in your uniform... and not forcing you to spend ANOTHER 2nd or 3rd round pick.

I generally avoid senior players anyway, especially 5th year seniors, and I think you saw Grier do this last year with both Iggy and Jackson... we took very young players who still had enormous upside.

I'm going to play that game as much as I can. If I've got two players ranked more or less equally, I'm going to take the younger player, and probably the player who didn't play on a stacked team.

 

[Feverdream]

Not so certain about that.

Etienne might very well go in the 1st round in this draft. Only 1 back went in the first last draft. And that was CEH with the last pick.

Also think Harris' bump in production in less games this season has increased how high he'll go in this draft versus last draft. Which could mean more $$$.

Don't think so on Harris... maybe on Etienne if he sneaks into the first round. The difference in money between 2nd and 3rd round vs the opportunity for one more year of pay is a bad bet.

 

[Feverdream]

All of this is part of the reason that I have lower grades on all three of the Alabama skill position players than most do. Harris, Smith, and Waddle are all already 22, with Harris turning 23 in March. Plus, they've been blessed to be on a stacked team that only has to work for their wins once or twice per year... OF COURSE their stats are other-worldly, and that's what they are being judged on mostly, their stats.

As a bonus thought... Josh Jacobs who is now finishing his 2nd year in the NFL is a whole month older than Harris. He only has two years left on his rookie contract and it will be instructive to see if the Raiders work out an extension with him sometime next year. If they do, this will be EXACTLY what I've been discussing with regard to drafting them younger.

When they get to the NFL, they may find things to be quite a bit tougher... Tua has, and I believe that it has contributed to his struggles.

 

[EJay]

All of this is part of the reason that I have lower grades on all three of the Alabama skill position players than most do. Harris, Smith, and Waddle are all already 22, with Harris turning 23 in March. Plus, they've been blessed to be on a stacked team that only has to work for their wins once or twice per year... OF COURSE their stats are other-worldly, and that's what they are being judged on mostly, their stats.

As a bonus thought... Josh Jacobs who is now finishing his 2nd year in the NFL is a whole month older than Harris. He only has two years left on his rookie contract and it will be instructive to see if the Raiders work out an extension with him sometime next year. If they do, this will be EXACTLY what I've been discussing with regard to drafting them younger.

When they get to the NFL, they may find things to be quite a bit tougher... Tua has, and I believe that it has contributed to his struggles.

I'll just conclude my side of this discussion by again saying that you are way too hung up on age. I've already given you one example where it's flawed and there are many, many more. One or two years isn't making a significant difference. Either the player is productive and good or he isn't. It's really that simple. And every player is different when it comes to how age and wear and tear affects them. Look no further than Frank Gore. And Adrian Peterson.

And for RB's, evaluating usage through HS and college is far more useful and pertinent than how many years the player has played or their age.

I'm completely fine drafting RB's every couple years. Gotta spend the draft picks on somebody. And you get at least 7 of them every single year unless you trade them.

 

[Feverdream]

I'll just conclude my side of this discussion by again saying that you are way too hung up on age. I've already given you one example where it's flawed and there are many, many more. One or two years isn't making a significant difference. Either the player is productive and good or he isn't. It's really that simple. And every player is different when it comes to how age and wear and tear affects them. Look no further than Frank Gore. And Adrian Peterson.

And for RB's, evaluating usage through HS and college is far more useful and pertinent than how many years the player has played or their age.

I'm completely fine drafting RB's every couple years. Gotta spend the draft picks on somebody. And you get at least 7 of them every single year unless you trade them.

Well... this is one of those times when I will say, we are just going to have to disagree. Age is one of the best predictors that we have.

 

[jimthefin]

I don't think anyone would be comparing Harris to Henry if they won't both Bama players.

Other than being tall Harris is not similar to Henry.

I prefer Williams over Harris in R2 somewhere but would rather Draft RB R3 or later.

 

[Feverdream]

New Year's Eve version... no trades

• 3.​

  
  
  Miami Dolphins
  Penei Sewell
  OT, Oregon

• 23.​

  
  
  Miami Dolphins
  Terrace Marshall Jr.
  WR, LSU

• 35.​

  
  
  Miami Dolphins
  Rondale Moore
  WR, Purdue

• 55.​

  
  
  Miami Dolphins
  Javonte Williams
  RB, North Carolina

• 86.​

  
  
  Miami Dolphins
  Alec Lindstrom
  IOL, Boston College
  
  

• 124.​

  
  
  Miami Dolphins
  Palaie Gaoteote IV
  LB, USC

• 194.​

  
  
  Miami Dolphins
  Ventrell Miller
  LB, Florida

• 204.​

  
  
  Miami Dolphins
  Brock Purdy
  QB, Iowa State

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Gaoteote is in the transfer portal because he can’t tackle. He was the worst tackling linebacker I looked at on film in preparation for my linebacker threads back in the spring.

He’s as bad as Elandon Roberts at breaking down and making one on one tackles in space. I don’t think you’ll be hearing his name much in the future. He was a big time recruiting whiff.

 

[Feverdream]

Gaoteote is in the transfer portal because he can’t tackle. He was the worst tackling linebacker I looked at on film in preparation for my linebacker threads back in the spring.

He’s as bad as Elandon Roberts at breaking down and making one on one tackles in space. I don’t think you’ll be hearing his name much in the future. He was a big time recruiting whiff.

Slow night in the trailer?