My First Half-Round Mock Draft

[Danny]

I'm not going to go overboard making a whole lot of these, and this only covers half of the first round because we're so far out from the draft that resolution gets a whole lot hazier at the bottom half of the first. I won't do anything comprehensive until the eve of the draft...and will probably only come up with one more mock sometime between now and then.

1. Vince Young to the Texans
There will be far too much pressure from the fans to keep their hero in town…a la Jake Plummer in Arizona. At one point in Arizona they estimated that 20% of fan attendance was linked with Plummer's presence on the Cardinals. That percentage could go even higher in Houston for Young, where the Texans have yet to repay fan loyalty with anything resembling quality football.

2. Matt Leinart to the Saints
Unless he pulls an Eli, this appears to be his destination.

3. Reggie Bush to the Titans
Norm Chow will be all too happy to be reunited with his favorite offensive weapon. Chow likes Leinart, but deep down I think he likes Bush more.

4. D’Brickashaw Ferguson to the Jets
Whoever they get or put out there at QB, they need to protect him. The Jets were one of the most-sacked teams, and it has been apparent for a while that Jason Fabini is about done. If Mangini becomes the coach, he could show favoritism towards the D, but I think they grab the next Walter Jones when they get the chance.

5. LenDale White to the Packers
New rumors have them enamored with White, and his Rose Bowl performance helped his stock considerably. The rumors make sense. Ahman Green is gone after this year, and the team needs to build around Rodgers. Jim Bates will fight like heck for AJ Hawk, but in the end the offense wins out.

6. AJ Hawk to the Raiders
Very unfair for him to fall even this far. He is the best defensive player in the draft, and quite possibly the best player in the draft period. But, some teams really need offense.

7. Marcus McNeil to the 49ers
I see people keep predicting defense, but the team needs to build around the franchise QB. There are no world-beating receivers here. Time to start protecting Alex Smith. He took 29 sacks in only 8 games…and Nolan won’t let him become the new David Carr.

8. Haloti Ngata to the Bills
They need big uglies on both sides of the line and with McNeil gone, Ngata is the choice because Donahoe is not there to show favoratism toward Hurricanes players like Eric Winston.

9. Mario Williams to Detroit
Millen is a big proponent of drafting the best player available, which has led to drafting three straight receivers. Finally, it will lead to a franchise defensive end, instead. Mario Williams just grades higher than Jimmy Williams, who would be their next target here. And, Millen is not smart enough to draft Jay Cutler and give up on Harrington.

10. DeAngelo Williams to the Cardinals
He is the Arrington that Arrington turned out not to be. Denny Green could also go with Eric Winston or Jon Scott here, but he needs a runner bad and this year's tackle class is deep.

11. Mathias Kiwanuku to the Rams
Time to start building that defense the right way, from the pass rush out.

12. Chad Greenway to the Cleveland Browns
Nick Saban and Romeo Crennel would both have a knock-down drag-out fight over this kid if they could. Belichick would watch, and be jealous that he doesn’t pick higher than them. Greenway is just their kind of linebacker.

13. Jimmy Williams to the Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens defense needs to be kept fresh to keep winning games, and Williams is a perfect fit as a safety to replace free agent Demps. They could go with a tackle, but no other offensive player on the board makes sense.

14. Demeco Ryans to the Eagles
Fits in immediately as a play-making, blitzing, intercepting weak side backer that they haven’t had since William Thomas.

15. Michael Huff to the Falcons
They could use a corner or a safety, and Huff could be either. I won't even go into how good of a player Huff is, because I think most people know already. Drafting him will make the Falcons very happy.

16. Jay Cutler to the Dolphins
Vince Young coming out bumps Cutler down far enough for Miami to get him. The Phins do like him, but Nick Saban will be tearing his hair out as four higher-rated players in Greenway, Williams, Ryans, and Huff all get taken before #16. Cutler is a pretty good consolation prize, though, and he fits everything Scott Linehan would like to do at the position. I would have the team taking Laron Landry or Jon Scott here, but #16 might be a little too high for Landry (the dreaded reach) and I do not think Hudson Houck will sign off on drafting a lineman in the first round. It just isn't his style. He is good enough that he thinks he can find first round quality in the 4th or 5th round, once you shine them up a bit. A lot of the time he's even right.

Everything is posible right now.I don't see Cutler being there at 16 but I hope I'm wrong.I agree that if Cutler's there Nick could pass on him if a guy higher on his board is still there like Greenway...either way is gonna be very intersting this year cos we have our top 4 picks for the first time since Wanny took over.

Ozzy rules!!
:rockon: :guitar:

 

[BlueFin]

A winning QB in college doesn't mean much....how about one that loses?

Until Ronnie plays by himself a full game and a full season...I'll reserve my judgement on his worth as the 2nd pick in the draft....your correct...I see both Bush and Brown in similar ways.

Pete doesn't grasp the concept that Vince Young and Matt Leinart have a LOT more help around them than a Jay Cutler had, you seem to lack vision Pete.

Cutler has more potential in his right arm than Young, and more than Leinarts left arm.

 

[ckparrothead]

Pete doesn't grasp the concept that Vince Young and Matt Leinart have a LOT more help around them than a Jay Cutler had, you seem to lack vision Pete.

Cutler has more potential in his right arm than Young, and more than Leinarts left arm.

That's a dangerous argument. If a guy isn't productive, excusing it due to "lack of quality cast" will lead you to a lot of heartbreak.

Cutler is what he is right now, a mid to late first round pick.

 

[fishypete]

I disagree. I think the fact that he came from a bad team and still put up those numbers (in the SEC mind you = GOOD defenses) just shows that it was all him and not the players around him.

He single handedly beat UT, and all but beat UF. Some complain about the refs in the UF game (but refs are part of the game) I'd point to some of his receivers. They dropped a LOT of passes in that game. Passes that were placed PERFECTLY on their hands. I am a believer in Cutler. If he is there when we pick (I really don't think he will be) then I'd be estatic that we have a young QB that should be our QB for many years.

We can agree to disagree. As I stated...it's not a question of liking Cutler or not...but where does he really belong in the draft...at least to me.
Is he a better QB than those that were taken in lower rounds....that have proved they can play in the NFL? Just how much worth do you give him just because he has a somewhat strong arm? Favre has a strong arm...but he wasn't selected in the first round. Marino had a strong arm...but he slipped almost out of the first round....and I know Cutler isn't a Marino...he isn't close. As far as the SEC having strong defense's....what happened to those that lost their Bowl games? You take away LSU and Florida...and whats the SEC's record?

 

[fishypete]

That's a dangerous argument. If a guy isn't productive, excusing it due to "lack of quality cast" will lead you to a lot of heartbreak.

Cutler is what he is right now, a mid to late first round pick.

Potential is what dreams are made of....do you know how many players with so-called potential....never made it in the NFL? Or some in college?

 

[BlueFin]

That's a dangerous argument. If a guy isn't productive, excusing it due to "lack of quality cast" will lead you to a lot of heartbreak.

Cutler is what he is right now, a mid to late first round pick.

CK, thats the whole point, Cutler WAS productive without a supporting cast, Leinart and Young can't say that.

Now please, don't twist this into me knocking Leinart or Young, who I think both have big potential, although Leinarts arm strength does scare me(that and the brace around his knee).

 

[ckparrothead]

CK, thats the whole point, Cutler WAS productive without a supporting cast, Leinart and Young can't say that.

Now please, don't twist this into me knocking Leinart or Young, who I think both have big potential, although Leinarts arm strength does scare me(that and the brace around his knee).

I don't twist anything.

I'll give you the production though I guess. Aside from a three game stretch in the middle that included games against LSU and Georgia, the offense was pretty productive. About 27 points a game overall.

And btw, what I am saying you are excusing is you are excusing Cutler for not leading as productive an offense as Leinart and Young, by saying he didn't have as good a cast. THAT is a dangerous argument and I still maintain that. He was productive enough, but let's put him in his place here, squarely below Leinart and Young.

 

[sports24/7]

That's a dangerous argument. If a guy isn't productive, excusing it due to "lack of quality cast" will lead you to a lot of heartbreak.

Cutler is what he is right now, a mid to late first round pick.

From everything I have heard he is a early-mid to mid round pick right now. Both Mel Kieper and Scouts Inc. have him in their top 15 on their draft boards. And most mock drafts have him either going to us or earlier.

 

[BlueFin]

I don't twist anything.

I'll give you the production though I guess. Aside from a three game stretch in the middle that included games against LSU and Georgia, the offense was pretty productive. About 27 points a game overall.

And btw, what I am saying you are excusing is you are excusing Cutler for not leading as productive an offense as Leinart and Young, by saying he didn't have as good a cast. THAT is a dangerous argument and I still maintain that. He was productive enough, but let's put him in his place here, squarely below Leinart and Young.

I don't really have a problem with that, but my instincts tell me this could be a situation where the 3rd guy drafted ends up better than the first two.

I put a lot of stock in a guy that can be successful with bad talent around him, and I really don't think anybody would argue that Vandy is sub-par (overall talentwise) for the conference they reside in.

Lets also remember, Nick Saban didn't leave the cupboard bare at LSU, they had an excellent defense, one that completely throttled the Hurricanes, that Cutler had trouble getting anything done there with his supporting cast doesn't bother me, same thing to a lesser extent against the Bulldogs.

I, and many other Dolphin fans, watched Marino carry this Dolphin team a lot farther than they ever would have gone without him. I seriously doubt Montana could have taken the poor defenses, and poor rushing attacks Miami had in those years, to as many wins, to three AFC Championship games, and one Superbowl.

 

[ckparrothead]

Lets also remember, Nick Saban didn't leave the cupboard bare at LSU, they had an excellent defense, one that completely throttled the Hurricanes, that Cutler had trouble getting anything done there with his supporting cast doesn't bother me, same thing to a lesser extent against the Bulldogs.

It's not that easy. Yes, LSU has a good defense. But, Cutler was attrocious. He completed 34% of his passes with 2 interceptions, 0 touchdowns, 5 sacks, and a safety. He'll be going up against 'good' defenses week in and week out in the NFL. And, he won't always have the ideal supporting cast either. Count that game for what it is, a black mark on his permanent record, so to speak.

 

[BlueFin]

It's not that easy. Yes, LSU has a good defense. But, Cutler was attrocious. He completed 34% of his passes with 2 interceptions, 0 touchdowns, 5 sacks, and a safety. He'll be going up against 'good' defenses week in and week out in the NFL. And, he won't always have the ideal supporting cast either. Count that game for what it is, a black mark on his permanent record, so to speak.

Sorry, can't do that, I've been watching football long enough to know better than that.

The difference in talent levels in the NFL is a fine line in most cases, college is a completely different world.

There is no way you can compare Cutler leading Vandy against the 4th ranked team in the nation, a defense built by Saban, to Cutler one day leading an NFL team against, in nearly every case, a similarly talented NFL team.

Parity is alive and well in the NFL, it is not so in college.

In the end, Football is a team game, and many a fine QB have looked absolutely awful when their O-line was so over matched.

 

[Nappy Roots]

It's not that easy. Yes, LSU has a good defense. But, Cutler was attrocious. He completed 34% of his passes with 2 interceptions, 0 touchdowns, 5 sacks, and a safety. He'll be going up against 'good' defenses week in and week out in the NFL. And, he won't always have the ideal supporting cast either. Count that game for what it is, a black mark on his permanent record, so to speak.

Vince Young with all that talent with him, was sacked 4 times, fumbled 2 times, intercepted 1 time, completed 54% of his passes and looked horrible agaisnt the 117th ranked defense. which is worse?

 

[Philter25]

I don't really have a problem with that, but my instincts tell me this could be a situation where the 3rd guy drafted ends up better than the first two.

I agree.

I think Cutler has the unteachables that Leinart and Young lack. I dont like Leinarts arm strength and until I saw his post game rose bowl comments, his attitude either. Vince Young's mechanics IMO are absolutely horrible and he lacks armstrength. I dont think his style of play will be successful in the NFL at all. I LOVE Vince Young as a college football player, but as a pro, I dont think so.

I think Cutler is still very rough around the edges. The one thing I love is he has a cannon of an arm that Leinart and Young lack. Cutler is going to need to work on his decision making. In Vandy games I watched, he relied on his cannon of an arm and threw some passes he shouldnt have thrown. Thats something thats easily corrected in the NFL. See Jake Plummer over the past 2 years.

You cant teach arm strength in the NFL. That is a quality I would love for my team's QB to have. Mechanics, footwork, and decision making are all mental things that I think can be molded with good coaching.

 

[Philter25]

Ugh. You guys are getting in too deep with stats and single game performances. You need to look at the overall skills and qualities of a guy. Stats IMO are not as important as intangibles and skills that cant be taught. Stats can favor heavily on the team around you. You need to evaluate each player individually based on how he treated each situation. Stats dont always tell the true picture.

Jason White put up great stats at OK the other year. Tom Brady didnt put up great stats at Michigan. Who would you rather have as your starting QB?

A QB can put up great numbers playing in a run first / option offense. That doesnt necessarily mean he will make a good west coast offense QB. Guys like Vince Young and Matt Leinart I think are good QBs, but I dont think they succeed in our system. Vince Young would struggle in Indy, but I think he would be great in Atlanta. Matt Leinart would struggle in Atlanta, but I think he would be good in New York. All 3 of the top QBs in this draft have very very different qualities and match up well in completely different offenses in the NFL.

 

[NorFlaFin]

I see the Eagles taking a stud RB maybe even trading up if neccessary. While Ryan Moats(my pick) has shown Lamar Gordon the door. He(Ryan) is still too small to be an everydown back.

BTW:The Eagle invest 1st rd pick in WR last year. Outside of a stud MLB, I don't see them picking defense on day one.