Slimm's 2020 Quarterbacks (underclassman)

[j-off-her-doll]

Right now we're #1, #7, #25, and #37.

I don't think a trade-down with a QB as target would happen with that spread.

Considering all the QBs that will be going Top 5 or Top 10, the focus with that #7 pick should probably be on picking up an elite caliber player at a non-QB position. They have no shortage of "good" picks over 2020 and 2021. What they need to do is make certain the picks count. Using that #7 pick on the 3rd or 4th best non-QB player in the draft is a pretty good way of doing that.

As for that #25 pick, it may be too far down the board. You'd have to hope someone feel pressured to move up there for perhaps the last of the five I pointed out above, or maybe someone falls in love with Jalen Hurts. So Miami could be stuck using this pick, although my preference would be on trading it down in order to keep your future budgets larger.

Looking into this a little further, I don't think there's an easy answer, but I still lean toward trading down - assuming the compensation is attractive. If we look at the Top 10 picks from 2010-present, the only star WR's are A. Green, J. Jones, M. Evans, and A. Cooper. Of picks 11-20, OBJ and B. Cooks are the only ones. Not looking at RB, because it's RB, and not looking at OL, because the premise is Miami needs star players.

If we're looking at the class most similar to 2020 in terms of WR talent, 2014 looks like the best comp, and OBJ and Cooks went after Evans (who went #7 overall). S. Watkins, of course, went in the Top 5 as the first WR off the board. If we ranked those players, it'd go OBJ, Evans, Cooks, Watkins. But, the sample is ridiculously small, and the point is just that WR is hard to evaluate. At the position, I'd rather see who falls to the Houston pick and spend one of the 2nd RD picks, as well, or I'd be happy if Miami spent two 2nd's.

If Miami stays at 7, it will likely be OT, CB, or Pass Rusher. I'd remove Pass Rusher from the list, because the D doesn't highlight the position. Rather than paying C. Jones, NE traded him for a 2nd. They also let T. Flowers walk. Because the DE's and OLB's in the D tend to be tweeners, spending premium resources on either doesn't make much sense to me.

That leaves OT and CB - two positions where NE has invested, giving Revis and then Gillmore big contracts (though Revis was a rental) and drafting Solder Top 20 and Wynn Top 25 - two of their earliest picks of the decade. If Miami is targeting OT, I think they'd be smart to trade down, as there appear to be 3-5 quality starters, depending on who declares.

If it's CB, it'll depend. Okudah looks like the CB most likely to go Top 10, and of any non-QB in the class, he makes the most sense at 7 for Miami. But, Miami could likely draft C. Henderson after trading down, and I see him as also having star potential at CB, with a relatively high floor (assuming health).

It's early in the process, and I'm sure a lot will change, but if Miami is able to pick up a future 1st in a trade down, I wouldn't pass that up to pick any one non-QB in this class. I like Jeudy a lot, but I don't see him as an A. Green or J. Jones type of super-elite WR, and that's the only type of player for which I'd say no to a trade down.

While Miami does have a lot of Day 1 and Day 2 picks on the horizon, they'll miss on some - hopefully less than usual. It's better imo to have two picks in the 10-25 range than one in the Top 10. Also, if Miami trades the #7 pick to a team trading up for QB, there's a real chance that the 2021 pick they'd get would wind up a Top 10 pick anyway.

 

[ckparrothead]

Looking into this a little further, I don't think there's an easy answer, but I still lean toward trading down - assuming the compensation is attractive. If we look at the Top 10 picks from 2010-present, the only star WR's are A. Green, J. Jones, M. Evans, and A. Cooper. Of picks 11-20, OBJ and B. Cooks are the only ones. Not looking at RB, because it's RB, and not looking at OL, because the premise is Miami needs star players.

If we're looking at the class most similar to 2020 in terms of WR talent, 2014 looks like the best comp, and OBJ and Cooks went after Evans (who went #7 overall). S. Watkins, of course, went in the Top 5 as the first WR off the board. If we ranked those players, it'd go OBJ, Evans, Cooks, Watkins. But, the sample is ridiculously small, and the point is just that WR is hard to evaluate. At the position, I'd rather see who falls to the Houston pick and spend one of the 2nd RD picks, as well, or I'd be happy if Miami spent two 2nd's.

If Miami stays at 7, it will likely be OT, CB, or Pass Rusher. I'd remove Pass Rusher from the list, because the D doesn't highlight the position. Rather than paying C. Jones, NE traded him for a 2nd. They also let T. Flowers walk. Because the DE's and OLB's in the D tend to be tweeners, spending premium resources on either doesn't make much sense to me.

That leaves OT and CB - two positions where NE has invested, giving Revis and then Gillmore big contracts (though Revis was a rental) and drafting Solder Top 20 and Wynn Top 25 - two of their earliest picks of the decade. If Miami is targeting OT, I think they'd be smart to trade down, as there appear to be 3-5 quality starters, depending on who declares.

If it's CB, it'll depend. Okudah looks like the CB most likely to go Top 10, and of any non-QB in the class, he makes the most sense at 7 for Miami. But, Miami could likely draft C. Henderson after trading down, and I see him as also having star potential at CB, with a relatively high floor (assuming health).

It's early in the process, and I'm sure a lot will change, but if Miami is able to pick up a future 1st in a trade down, I wouldn't pass that up to pick any one non-QB in this class. I like Jeudy a lot, but I don't see him as an A. Green or J. Jones type of super-elite WR, and that's the only type of player for which I'd say no to a trade down.

While Miami does have a lot of Day 1 and Day 2 picks on the horizon, they'll miss on some - hopefully less than usual. It's better imo to have two picks in the 10-25 range than one in the Top 10. Also, if Miami trades the #7 pick to a team trading up for QB, there's a real chance that the 2021 pick they'd get would wind up a Top 10 pick anyway.

I agree with a lot of what you've said. Just a small disagreement about the pass rush position.

I tend to share your view that pass rusher is not as high-value in NE's system, but it's important to admit contrary evidence into the picture as Miami made a bid for both Trey Flowers and Jadeveon Clowney. And more than once I've heard about interest in Yannick Ngakoue.

That could mean that Miami will look to free agency to fill that need. But it could also extrapolate to a high pick on the position.

Personally I'd eliminate the position from consideration because aside from Chase Young I think the pass rush class looks like it has a lot of warts up top. Am I really taking A.J. Epenesa up there? No. And there's something about the playing speed of Yetur Gross-Matos that throws me off, worries me. Kenny Willekes or Julian Okwara? Just not talented enough. I like Carlos "Boogie" Basham quite a bit but I'm not sure he'll garner that kind of grade either. One of my very favorite pass rushers in this class is Alex Highsmith and it doesn't look like anyone has him even close to high enough to consider with that top 10 pick. I think he could see a very Marcus Davenport-like rise up the board, though.

And I remain extremely wary about Rush OLB prospects that high in the draft. The position is fraught with busts. There's no Josh Allen or Khalil Mack here to make it obvious.

As I've taken in a heavy dose of these top prospects at the different positions, I've come off believing the only OT that I can cotton to that high is Andrew Thomas, and the only CB that gets me excited to take him up there is Jeffry Okudah. I think if you're down to Fulton or Henderson at that position, or you're down to Tristan Wirfs at the OT position, then you're still alright, but it's a bit disappointing you didn't get a crack at something better.

The WR position is the one that intrigues particularly with the idea of keeping Jerry Jeudy together with Tua Tagovailoa. And I also love Leviska Shenault. Obviously CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Tylan Wallace, and Tee Higgins bear consideration as well.

Hard to get excited about anyone else, yet.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I agree with a lot of what you've said. Just a small disagreement about the pass rush position.

I tend to share your view that pass rusher is not as high-value in NE's system, but it's important to admit contrary evidence into the picture as Miami made a bid for both Trey Flowers and Jadeveon Clowney. And more than once I've heard about interest in Yannick Ngakoue.

That could mean that Miami will look to free agency to fill that need. But it could also extrapolate to a high pick on the position.

Personally I'd eliminate the position from consideration because aside from Chase Young I think the pass rush class looks like it has a lot of warts up top. Am I really taking A.J. Epenesa up there? No. And there's something about the playing speed of Yetur Gross-Matos that throws me off, worries me. Kenny Willekes or Julian Okwara? Just not talented enough. I like Carlos "Boogie" Basham quite a bit but I'm not sure he'll garner that kind of grade either. One of my very favorite pass rushers in this class is Alex Highsmith and it doesn't look like anyone has him even close to high enough to consider with that top 10 pick. I think he could see a very Marcus Davenport-like rise up the board, though.

And I remain extremely wary about Rush OLB prospects that high in the draft. The position is fraught with busts. There's no Josh Allen or Khalil Mack here to make it obvious.

As I've taken in a heavy dose of these top prospects at the different positions, I've come off believing the only OT that I can cotton to that high is Andrew Thomas, and the only CB that gets me excited to take him up there is Jeffry Okudah. I think if you're down to Fulton or Henderson at that position, or you're down to Tristan Wirfs at the OT position, then you're still alright, but it's a bit disappointing you didn't get a crack at something better.

The WR position is the one that intrigues particularly with the idea of keeping Jerry Jeudy together with Tua Tagovailoa. And I also love Leviska Shenault. Obviously CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Tylan Wallace, and Tee Higgins bear consideration as well.

Hard to get excited about anyone else, yet.

I guess it comes down to the gap between the top OT and Top CB and OT and CB 2-3. Okudah is freaky, no doubt, but Henderson is pretty freaky in his own right. Before his injury, I saw Walker Little right there with Thomas. Maybe the injury causes him to return to Stanford in 2020, but then I think it comes down to how safe you view Wirfs and how quickly you think he can play. At OT, I'd take a good starter who might make the occasional Pro Bowl or 2nd team All Pro and a 1st RD pick over a perennial All Pro. So, yeah, I think that's probably where most of our disagreement stems, but it's really early.

 

[Phinsfan93]

I guess it comes down to the gap between the top OT and Top CB and OT and CB 2-3. Okudah is freaky, no doubt, but Henderson is pretty freaky in his own right. Before his injury, I saw Walker Little right there with Thomas. Maybe the injury causes him to return to Stanford in 2020, but then I think it comes down to how safe you view Wirfs and how quickly you think he can play. At OT, I'd take a good starter who might make the occasional Pro Bowl or 2nd team All Pro and a 1st RD pick over a perennial All Pro. So, yeah, I think that's probably where most of our disagreement stems, but it's really early.

Do you have any issues with Henderson's lack of physicality in defending the run and or the fact that he occasionally plays "soft"?

 

[ckparrothead]

Jamie Newman is absolutely outstanding on 3rd down. A savant.

If Daniel Jones can make it, I'm not sure why Jamie Newman can't.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Do you have any issues with Henderson's lack of physicality in defending the run and or the fact that he occasionally plays "soft"?

Not at this point. Like all the potential top guys, I'd like to see him stay healthy and finish the season strong.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Jamie Newman is absolutely outstanding on 3rd down. A savant.

If Daniel Jones can make it, I'm not sure why Jamie Newman can't.

He's been the best quarterback in the ACC so far this year. He's outplayed Trevor Lawrence by a mile

 

[Lovethefish]

Looking into this a little further, I don't think there's an easy answer, but I still lean toward trading down - assuming the compensation is attractive. If we look at the Top 10 picks from 2010-present, the only star WR's are A. Green, J. Jones, M. Evans, and A. Cooper. Of picks 11-20, OBJ and B. Cooks are the only ones. Not looking at RB, because it's RB, and not looking at OL, because the premise is Miami needs star players.

If we're looking at the class most similar to 2020 in terms of WR talent, 2014 looks like the best comp, and OBJ and Cooks went after Evans (who went #7 overall). S. Watkins, of course, went in the Top 5 as the first WR off the board. If we ranked those players, it'd go OBJ, Evans, Cooks, Watkins. But, the sample is ridiculously small, and the point is just that WR is hard to evaluate. At the position, I'd rather see who falls to the Houston pick and spend one of the 2nd RD picks, as well, or I'd be happy if Miami spent two 2nd's.

If Miami stays at 7, it will likely be OT, CB, or Pass Rusher. I'd remove Pass Rusher from the list, because the D doesn't highlight the position. Rather than paying C. Jones, NE traded him for a 2nd. They also let T. Flowers walk. Because the DE's and OLB's in the D tend to be tweeners, spending premium resources on either doesn't make much sense to me.

That leaves OT and CB - two positions where NE has invested, giving Revis and then Gillmore big contracts (though Revis was a rental) and drafting Solder Top 20 and Wynn Top 25 - two of their earliest picks of the decade. If Miami is targeting OT, I think they'd be smart to trade down, as there appear to be 3-5 quality starters, depending on who declares.

If it's CB, it'll depend. Okudah looks like the CB most likely to go Top 10, and of any non-QB in the class, he makes the most sense at 7 for Miami. But, Miami could likely draft C. Henderson after trading down, and I see him as also having star potential at CB, with a relatively high floor (assuming health).

It's early in the process, and I'm sure a lot will change, but if Miami is able to pick up a future 1st in a trade down, I wouldn't pass that up to pick any one non-QB in this class. I like Jeudy a lot, but I don't see him as an A. Green or J. Jones type of super-elite WR, and that's the only type of player for which I'd say no to a trade down.

While Miami does have a lot of Day 1 and Day 2 picks on the horizon, they'll miss on some - hopefully less than usual. It's better imo to have two picks in the 10-25 range than one in the Top 10. Also, if Miami trades the #7 pick to a team trading up for QB, there's a real chance that the 2021 pick they'd get would wind up a Top 10 pick anyway.

Given it’s a 2-3 year rebuild, I think you have to be willing to drop 5-10 picks if it means a 2021 Rd1. The only exception in the draft would be the OSU DE and he isnt getting past 5.

 

[SMadison29]

Then you have Tony Pauline all but saying that Miami's scouts like Jordan Love the most.

Heard this yesterday & almost had to take half a day sick leave. I would watch less than I currently do & we would be in for a much longer rebuild than expected. The words that come to mind after watching three of his games this year are brutal, unbearable, head scratching... And it's not going to be pretty this week vs LSU either.

 

[hoops]

Do you have any issues with Henderson's lack of physicality in defending the run and or the fact that he occasionally plays "soft"?

I’ve only seen him once and he came off finesse to me. Gifted but finesse.

Okudah though saw him once also and too much initial separation out of cuts. He closed quickly which I really liked but that initial separation if not remedied can be pitch and catch in the nfl against a quality qb. Stay more attached.

Anyways it was just one game of each but that was my real time initial reads.

 

[djphinfan]

“An accurate qb..leadership..”

What Flores covets in a qb.

 

[hoops]

I’d be leary of paying ngakue top shelf money. That dudes going where the money takes him and I don’t like the fit for a multiple fronts defense.

Top 5 money for that player is too rich for me. Given how much money teams have he could reset the market. I will pass on that level investment.

I’d pay scherff in a nanosecond

 

[Rick Cartman]

Watching Jordan Love so far against LSU. So far so good in the first quarter but he isn't getting any help from his receivers.

His TE dropped what would of been a 30 yard touchdown pass that hit him in the hands.

Long way to go though

 

[mrbunglez]

Jordan Love got taken to to the woodshed against LSU.

 

[Birdmond]

Watching Jordan Love so far against LSU. So far so good in the first quarter but he isn't getting any help from his receivers.

His TE dropped what would of been a 30 yard touchdown pass that hit him in the hands.

Long way to go though

Joe Burrow, in my opinion is a better prospect than Love and I’ve been saying this for two years.