Recently, I've been analyzing why we lost so many games last season, and the few seasons before while also comparing what Saban is doing to fix certain problems. Ive come to the conclusion that we'll almost certainly make the playoffs, and here is why.
Lets start out with the infamous "we lose in December and January" curse.
Much like last year, our last few games of the season are played in a warmer climate, except our very last game January 1st against the Patriots. But starting in December, we are home against Buffalo, AT san diego, home against NYJ, home against Tennesee, then finally at the Patriots. This team functions the best in the warmer weather, so theres not likely a chance we'll "freeze up" come the end of the season.
But we did that LAST YEAR when we had nice games at the end. (keep in mind we won a few, but ill chalk that up to Bates)
Well, dear friends, I studied why we lost so much in the past. Not only was it the coaching style (beat them in the first half and let the defense win the rest of the game) but it was also our defense itself!
By the end of the third and all through the fourth, our defense was so tired from having to win the game on its own, that teams were able to win in the last quarter sooooo many times. So how do we fix this problem?
The easiest solution seems like we should get a younger defense and interchange them with our older defense, allowing them both to get some rest and not be physically exhausted throughout the game. And that is what Saban is planning on doing with these recent draft picks. Also, our defense was so hurt last season (thomas, tim bowens, etc) that there were glaring holes that the team could pound through. With some young talent to fill those holes and a great defensive mind leading the way, we wont have to worry about having a defense too tired to play the full four quarters.
Jimmy Johnson once said (not while with the dolphins) that the key to winning the game was turnovers. The team with the most turnovers lost would lose. So why did AJ Feeley have so many interceptions? Why does any QB throw an INT. Too much pressure, inability to read the defense, throwing before getting sacked. Well, with our HUGE upgrade at line coach AND Offensive Coordinator making things simpler and easier for our players while making it more difficult for defenses to penetrate, we can give AJ (or frerotte, whoever you wish) the chance to throw more down the field to one of our great recievers. (Chambers, Booker, Brown, Boston? Hakim?) Good recievers make a QB better, and any of these guys can snatch the ball out of the air, making AJ seem like hes Delhomme a few seasons ago.
And finally, our backfield. With our new line coach and new schemes, teams cant watch game footage of last year and figure out our running patterns and where our holes will be. (granted they can do it on a game to game basis, like usual, but hear me out) Ricky Williams ran for the league high when he first came to the fins. The next year he did not, because teams new where the holes would be and prepared for him.
Now, imagine for a second, with our new line coach we get sort of a Denver style line, where theres always a hole for our RBs. Now imagine three interchangeable running backs in our lineup, constantly destroying the other teams defense. Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Kay Jay Harris. All with something to prove.
The last thing ill say in this very very long entry is this. Last year, we lost so many games because it was all mental. The coaching staff fighting with each other. Ricky Williams retiring. The crapload of hurricanes hitting and the worrying about family, players getting up and leaving practice, the organization was in chaos and it showed. All of these played a part in distracting the players and putting them in a losing funk. But now, with everything on one page, great talent, good coaching, and the mental mindset to win, the dolphins will go 11-5 and hit the playoffs running.
