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Wide Receivers

Namor

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Who are the top 5-10 LT's in the NFL? How many have won a SB?

Joe Thomas was considered to be the best LT in the NFL throughout his career how many times did the Browns even make the playoffs with him? Randy Moss was on 2 different teams that scored the most points in NFL history, LT's don't move the needle as far as impact the way WR's can. I think I rather have an elite WR and an above average LT compared to an elite LT and an above average WR. As a matter of fact I rather have an elite receiving group (WRs/TEs) and an above average OL as oppose to an elite OL and an above average receiving group.
Exactly!!!....
 

Digital

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The top 25 WRs (Yards) in 2020
1. Stefon Diggs 1535 5th(146)
2. DeAndre Hopkins 1407 1st(27)
3. Justin Jefferson 1400 1st(22)
4. Calvin Ridley 1374 1st(26)
5. DeVante Adams 1374 2nd(53)
6. DK Metcalf 1303 2nd(64)
7. Tyreek Hill 1276 5th(165)
8. Allen Robinson 1250 2nd(61)
9. DJ Moore 1193 1st(24)
10. Brandin Cooks 1150 1st(20)
11. Terry McLaurin 1118 3rd(76)
12. Amari Cooper 1114 1st(4)
13. Robby Anderson 1096 UDFA
14. AJ Brown 1075 2nd(51)
15. Tyler Lockett 1054 3rd(69)
16. Mike Evans 1006 1st(7)
17. Keenan Allen 992 3rd(76)
18. Corey Davis 984 1st(5)
19. Marvin Jones 978 5th(166)
20. Cooper Kupp 974 3rd(69)
21. Cole Beasley 967 UDFA
22. Robert Woods 936 2nd(41)
23. CeeDee Lamb 935 1st(17)
24. Adam Thielen 925 UDFA
25. Diontae Johnson 923 3rd(66)

So of the top 25 WRs in the league for this season 9 are 1st round picks. 5 are 2nd round picks. 5 are 3rd round picks. 3 are 5th round picks. 3 are undrafted free agents.

3 of these WRs were selected in the top 7 of their respective draft...
Amari Cooper 4 OVR Ranked 12th YDs
Corey Davis 5 OVR Ranked 18th YDs
Mike Evans 7 OVR Ranked 17th YDs

Only 1 of these 25 WRs have won a Super Bowl and that was Tyreek Hill just last season.

I charted these results bc obviously we are looking at the potential of drafting a WR at #3. Some have already decided to turn the card in for DeVonta Smith but after seeing these results are we sure we want to draft a WR at #3 if our goal is to win a Super Bowl? Granted its just this years worth of data but I find it quite surprising that only 1 of the top 25 WRs in football by yards have won a Super Bowl.

Will this data steer anyone away from wanting a WR at #3 so badly? What say you?
Nice post @MiaFins31 , thanks!

IMHO, it's hard to correlate WR's and Super Bowls, because there are so many other important variables. I could see a QB to Super Bowl correlation a bit easier, but even that one is tough. The highest performing teams in any one dimension tend to be weaker in the other dimension, which doesn't bode well for reaching the Super Bowl. Great passing teams tend to have trouble if a defense can derail their passing attacks. Great running teams tend to have trouble sustaining drives if a team can outscore them or shut down the running attack and get a two score lead. Lots of teams that make the Super Bowl have good defenses, etc. So, I would not be put off by a weak WR to Super Bowl correlation.

But using the same data, what does seem apparent is that we can notice a higher propensity for solid to strong WR's in that group as opposed to pure speed guys. Guys like Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill are noticable exceptions, sure, but the presence of guys like Hopkins, Metcalf, Adams, etc., show a strong representation of bigger, stronger WR's. Often that aspect does not show up as clearly at the collegiate level. Also, while there are a lot of 1st rounders on that list ... there are also a very healthy number of guys who were not quite as highly regarded. Even this past year guys like Chase Claypool showed very well and was a 2nd round guy. Guys like Diggs, Jefferson, Lockett, Beasley, etc. have proven to be productive guys. From a hit or miss perspective, WR is one of those positions where there are a lot of hits outside the 1st round, as compared to the LT position or edge rushers, where the dropoff after round 1 is more extreme. There is a strong case to be made for not drafting a WR in round 1 at all, and an even stronger case against drafting a 175 lbs. WR at #3 overall. Many people will point to Diggs at the top of this list and genuinely beleive DaVonta Smith is the obvious choice ... but we might be able to find a top WR in round 2, but other positions may prove harder to fill outside of round 1.

Your point about only 3 of those guys being selected in the top 7 of their respective drafts is a good one. College has a lot of sophisticated pass-heavy offenses these days, and the WR position has become a marquee one for great athletes, so more ultra-talented kids are coming into the pros at these positions and ready to contribute from day 1. These things influence positional scarcity, pushing down the overall need to draft a WR quite as high as in the past.
 

Durango2020

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Devonta Smith is a dynamic receiver who just rises above the rest.
If he turns into the next Marvin Harrison then our offense will get a significant boost.
Would I want to get him at 3? I'd rather trade down and still get him but his stock has been rising fast and he may not be available as a later pick.

The good news is that we have the option of at least having Sewell, Smith or the capability of trading down for King's ransom.
That's a win any way you look at it.
 

srp1979

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Take Smith at #3. Pair up an elite route runner with a highly accurate QB.

Montana to Rice 2.0??!!
 

MiaFins31

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Im not against taking a WR at 3 although I've stated many times I prefer Chase to Smith. But I only want to take a WR at 3 if we can't trade down and if we can't trade down I want to take Sewell. If neither of those options are available I agree we should take a WR. I just thought this was interesting but like 1 poster pointed out and I said in the OP this is only 1 year worth of data. I just thought it was surprising that out of 25 guys the 3 that were selected in the top 7 are all in the middle of the top 25 by yards. I'm sorry but if we take a WR at 3 I expect consistent 1300-1400 yard seasons. My point is its hard to get the required value its going to take to justify taking a WR at 3.
 
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Top 132 recievers in the NFL, average separation is 3.2 yards. Parker is 1.7, Gesicki 2.0, Ford 2.8 and Grant 3.1. We don't even have one reciever above average, and the one who is close, is a midget who can't catch. Of the 132, Parker is the worst. Shouldn't be to hard to upgrade from this pathetic group.
Albert Wilson led the league in this stat in 2017, and has been top 10 his entire career.
 

Jeremy0020

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Take Smith at #3. Pair up an elite route runner with a highly accurate QB.

Montana to Rice 2.0??!!
LOL. People forget that Montana did not have a great arm. Accurate and ran that offense very well though. Still would not take a WR at 3. Not while Sewell is on the board and an offensive line that ranked out at 29!
 

cltchperf

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Nice post thanks for the hard work. If we don't take Smith at 3, Falcons will at 4. Just saying...
meh, they could go for zach wilsion instead actually. Zach is the hot qb that's risen high and I feel teams will trying to get after lawrence is taken by jaguars
 

Feverdream

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Atlanta is a bad team with an old QB... if they take a WR and pass on a QB prospect, they are dumber than I think they are.
 

NYPhinzFan

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Top 132 recievers in the NFL, average separation is 3.2 yards. Parker is 1.7, Gesicki 2.0, Ford 2.8 and Grant 3.1. We don't even have one reciever above average, and the one who is close, is a midget who can't catch. Of the 132, Parker is the worst. Shouldn't be to hard to upgrade from this pathetic group.
You have to wonder how much of that is scheme. Teams play us close and sit on short and intermediate routes. I think it makes sense that grant had biggest separation because he is the only deep threat in our group so DBs must give him that cushion to respect his speed.
 

Mach2

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Albert Wilson led the league in this stat in 2017, and has been top 10 his entire career.
Yes. All the ppl discounting him are making a mistake, IMO.

He isn't a pro bowl guy, but he is a good slot fit, that runs good, clean routes and is/was fast as hell.

He doesn't have to be a #1 or #2 to be effective.
 

Travis34

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Yes. All the ppl discounting him are making a mistake, IMO.

He isn't a pro bowl guy, but he is a good slot fit, that runs good, clean routes and is/was fast as hell.

He doesn't have to be a #1 or #2 to be effective.
For sure. I hope we get to see Wilson stick around next year
 

CSONKA1966

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I have loved Smith for three yrs but he is not worth the third pick. Trade back 6-8 spot you can get Parsons, Maybe Sewell,the kid from LSU or Smith. If you get Parsons at 8 draft Waddle at 18, Heck with the ammo. added from trading back you might still get Harris or Pitts. My thought is we should be able to get a difference-maker in the front 7 on defense, a very good wideout and a great piece in the offense in the first rd if we play our cards right. Even if we give up our 2nd rd pick
 

ThePeopleShow13

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I don’t think Smith is a great value pick if taken 3rd overall. We already saw that Tua struggled without a great OC like Sarkisian and the talent surrounding him at Alabama. Watch the National Championship game again. Smith played great. However, he was only executing the plays called by Sark which were basically embarrassing OSU on every level. I don’t want to take anything away from Smith, but I wonder if Miami’s next OC can get the same success from him. Smith is a talented prospect, but he’s not a guy like Calvin Johnson who could put up numbers in any system due to being a physical freak.
 
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