Sooooo....... Now your suggesting that GMs don't adhere to your common sense proposals?
Honestly, Ray, don't you think it's more likely that misses are just the way things shake out even in the best case scenarios?
As I alluded to before, there is historical data to use in forming a theory. It shows a marked decline in good players by round. This has been consistent throughout the era of the 7 round draft. This fact would seem to belie your implication that it is likely you can find good players in late rounds if one simply does more due diligence.
There are surely organizations that are better at evaluating than others, but none are 100% in rd1, let alone on day 3 picks.
Isn't it possible that there's no foolproof way to determine who will be great, and who will not make the grade?
I'm not trying to talk you out of your beliefs. Just saying the evidence points to something different.
Yes.
But; and this is a "big but"!
There have always been a lot of busts from 1st round players and these "busts" tend to occur more often in games, because these were highly drafted players who were expected to play sooner, rather than later. They are typically kept on the field for more games because they are a bigger investment, and many teams are relying on them to produce much more, much sooner than lower draft picks.
I recall about 10 years ago, or more, there was a highly drafted QB who was having problems. His father was a High School or College level coach, and he kept "butting" into the conflict between his son and the NFL teams HC, I think this QB is still in the NFL as a backup QB to backup QB's.
I'm almost willing to bet you are aware of who this QB is, but I have forgotten his name.
It is this kind of situation that seems to reoccur every year to some extent and is particularly noticeable at the QB position due to its higher visibility than players who don't handle the ball.
What I conclude from this repetitive problem with high draft picks is the following:
1) Study every draft pick's personality to the point you can reasonably determine if they are likely to be a Primadonna, or not. Avoid Primadonna's.
2) Look for personal integrity of every draft selection you make. This personality trait, above all others, is a good indicator that you will get the best this player has to offer.
3) Look at how well a player gets along with his teammates. This will help to reduce "personality" clashes in the locker room.
4) Avoid the "know-it-all" players because:
a) They probably don't "know it all" and are likely to resist making improvements in their game that coaching staff wants to see and
b) Will probably have some trouble getting along with their teammates.
5) Draft players who demonstrate that they recognize that they have some short comings identified that they will need to correct as part of the big changes they will be facing, in order to be ready to play at the required level that playing in the NFL demands.
In summary, I'm saying don't look for a lot of "HOF" players in the early rounds. Focus on improving the skill sets at those positions the team needs the most help in; yet be aware of quality players whose acquisition will improve the team overall the most.
Never forget that this is a team game, not a spotlight for "hot shots" - who so often end up as a "flash in the pan". - LOL