Cam Newton Projected to Fall

[finintheburgh]

Cam Newton has the potential to turn the dolphins into a perennial sb contender.

based on what? one year as a starter at auburn, maybe as a backup at flordia, no maybe it was his play in jr college. what has he done over any period of time to make you think he will be great? he had one great year throwing to wide open wrs who didnt have defenders within 5 yards of them. did he even have 1 drive the whole season that took more than 5 plays that they scored on that didnt involve him running? has he done anything to prove that he can be a winner by using his arm. he wont run free in the nfl and he wont be bigger and faster than all the lbs like he was in college. theres a reason why the running qb hasnt won a sb yet. they dont work in the pros

hes a poormans vy. maybe he has a better head on his shoulders than vy, but hes the same type of qb. except for the fact that vy showed he could do it in college for more than one year.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

based on what? one year as a starter at auburn, maybe as a backup at flordia, no maybe it was his play in jr college. what has he done over any period of time to make you think he will be great? he had one great year throwing to wide open wrs who didnt have defenders within 5 yards of them. did he even have 1 drive the whole season that took more than 5 plays that they scored on that didnt involve him running? has he done anything to prove that he can be a winner by using his arm. he wont run free in the nfl and he wont be bigger and faster than all the lbs like he was in college. theres a reason why the running qb hasnt won a sb yet. they dont work in the pros

hes a poormans vy. maybe he has a better head on his shoulders than vy, but hes the same type of qb. except for the fact that vy showed he could do it in college for more than one year.

A poor-man's VY??

I'd love to see you justify that one.

 

[3rdandinches]

based on what? one year as a starter at auburn, maybe as a backup at flordia, no maybe it was his play in jr college. what has he done over any period of time to make you think he will be great? he had one great year throwing to wide open wrs who didnt have defenders within 5 yards of them. did he even have 1 drive the whole season that took more than 5 plays that they scored on that didnt involve him running? has he done anything to prove that he can be a winner by using his arm. he wont run free in the nfl and he wont be bigger and faster than all the lbs like he was in college. theres a reason why the running qb hasnt won a sb yet. they dont work in the pros

hes a poormans vy. maybe he has a better head on his shoulders than vy, but hes the same type of qb. except for the fact that vy showed he could do it in college for more than one year.

Why would it matter if he had a drive without running??? It's an aspect of his game that makes him extremely attractive as a prospect, you know... a strength!!!! Every team knew you had to stop him from running yet he still was able to, as CK has stated many times before he moves around and eludes defenders with his eyes down field before taking off. Which speaks volumes of him as a passing QB that keeps drives alive with his legs.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Also, as CK has pointed out, over the last few games, he ran on designed passes about the same % as A. Rodgers. I doubt anyone here would turn his nose up at Rodgers - writing him off as a running QB.

 

[fins_rock]

based on what? one year as a starter at auburn, maybe as a backup at flordia, no maybe it was his play in jr college. what has he done over any period of time to make you think he will be great? he had one great year throwing to wide open wrs who didnt have defenders within 5 yards of them. did he even have 1 drive the whole season that took more than 5 plays that they scored on that didnt involve him running? has he done anything to prove that he can be a winner by using his arm. he wont run free in the nfl and he wont be bigger and faster than all the lbs like he was in college. theres a reason why the running qb hasnt won a sb yet. they dont work in the pros

hes a poormans vy. maybe he has a better head on his shoulders than vy, but hes the same type of qb. except for the fact that vy showed he could do it in college for more than one year.

If he's a poor man's VY then we should just go after VY and let Cam N. sit on somebody else's roster for years to develop..

 

[j-off-her-doll]

If he's a poor man's VY then we should just go after VY and let Cam N. sit on somebody else's roster for years to develop..

If Newton "busts," he'll still be significantly better than VY. As far as his floor - assuming he stays healthy - I see Mike Vick in Atlanta. If he doesn't care to learn the NFL game, he'll still get you 10-12 wins with a decent supporting cast. I think he will make the effort, and I think he's intelligent.

 

[vaneasy2338]

Also, as CK has pointed out, over the last few games, he ran on designed passes about the same % as A. Rodgers. I doubt anyone here would turn his nose up at Rodgers - writing him off as a running QB.

Now lets just wait a minute now, those stats aren't end all. Is there is a possibilty that Newton's game as a passer improved over those last few games, and he chose to run the ball less? Yes. But there is also a possibility that opposing defenses choose to stack the box, and passing the ball was clearly the better option. Now listening to ck, it sounds like it was more of the former. But again he has been wrong before, and will countinue to be wrong. It's an art not a science.

I'll say this about Cam Newton: If I was cheering for another team with quarterback as a need, I would certainly want to draft him (and I sure as hell don't want to see him in three years against our fins). But the problem is expecting our former wr coach, Brain Daboll, and Tony Sparano to develop Cam Newton is wishful thinking. Not one of those guys has proven to me they can do such a thing. If we are going to take a quarterback, there better not be much development needed (ie Berkley and Luck next year) because expecting THIS coaching staff to take somewhat of a development project and mold him into a franchise quarterback is not realistic.

 

[DAFINZ]

Now c'mon - there are few moments in Fin History worse than that. I remember waking up from a massive Prague hangover (and well worth it) and finding the nearest internet cafe to scan the draft results. As I got closer to the FINS pick and seeing Brees undrafted, the more excited I got. Seeing the CB Fletcher as the Fins pick almost made me vomit on the spot.

Is there a worse draft moment?

I had to witness that 1st hand. I had followed Brees's progression at Purdue and was stoked at the possibility of him dropping to the Fins. Cut to late 1st round, fins are on clock and Brees is still available. I swear, I've never been more excited at any other draft moment. I was chanting Brees louder than the fins fans at the draft. And then ofcourse, Wannie stood up for Fiedler and made the pick...Almost broke my tv...almost...

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Now lets just wait a minute now, those stats aren't end all. Is there is a possibilty that Newton's game as a passer improved over those last few games, and he chose to run the ball less? Yes. But there is also a possibility that opposing defenses choose to stack the box, and passing the ball was clearly the better option. Now listening to ck, it sounds like it was more of the former. But again he has been wrong before, and will countinue to be wrong. It's an art not a science.

I'll say this about Cam Newton: If I was cheering for another team with quarterback as a need, I would certainly want to draft him (and I sure as hell don't want to see him in three years against our fins). But the problem is expecting our former wr coach, Brain Daboll, and Tony Sparano to develop Cam Newton is wishful thinking. Not one of those guys has proven to me they can do such a thing. If we are going to take a quarterback, there better not be much development needed (ie Berkley and Luck next year) because expecting THIS coaching staff to take somewhat of a development project and mold him into a franchise quarterback is not realistic.

I don't know. C. McCoy did better with Daboll than people expected.

As far as his running less and the reasons for it, Newton will always have Safeties and Linebackers spying him. He'll always have D-lineman tempering their rush with contain responsibilities. It's a large aspect of his attractiveness as a prospect. When a D has to do those types of things to compensate for your mobility, it makes the passing game MUCH simpler. He'll have more time just by being him - let alone the extra time he might buy with his feet - and he'll have less people in coverage. If a team every does want to play straight man, the second they turn their backs, he's up the field for 20+ yards.

That's why Vick was pretty successful in Atlanta even though he was terrible as a pure QB. If Newton has the intelligence and desire to do the little things, the sky really is the limit.

 

[ckparrothead]

Seems like you really changed your opinion of Henne (as most people have). Don't get me wrong, I want a new QB real bad but I was wondering as one of the few who actually study film what changed your mind from sophomore slump to complete and hopeless bust. I'm only asking because you'll give an insightful and intelligent answer unlike most of the other people who just say "he sucks and if you can't see that then you're stupid."

Again, I am NOT pro Henne and am completely for drafting a qb in round 1.

I changed my mind because he didn't get better. He just got worse. Being a QB in the NFL is a race of learning curves. Either the defenses have the learning curve and figure you out, or you have the learning curve and figure the defenses out. The defenses beat Chad Henne. They've figured him out and he's not figuring them out.

 

[ckparrothead]

Now lets just wait a minute now, those stats aren't end all. Is there is a possibilty that Newton's game as a passer improved over those last few games, and he chose to run the ball less? Yes. But there is also a possibility that opposing defenses choose to stack the box, and passing the ball was clearly the better option. Now listening to ck, it sounds like it was more of the former. But again he has been wrong before, and will countinue to be wrong. It's an art not a science.

I actually agree with the latter theory. Absolutely, teams like Alabama, South Carolina and Oregon game planned to try and keep Newton in the pocket and passing. But two points to be made.

1. He did exactly as they hoped, he passed the ball from the pocket more, and he beat them doing it, with 50 of 82 (61%) passing for 816 yards (9.7 YPA), 9 TDs and 1 INT.

2. His SEASON-LONG average on scrambling for positive yardage on a pass play was about 12%. Is that really all that significantly different from Aaron Rodgers' 2010 season-long average of 8%?

So even if you don't focus on the last 3 games, it doesn't really matter that much. When I measured the last 3 games it was just to get a sample, so that I could approximate how often he scrambles period. Then I saw where some advanced stat service had done the whole season already and that's where I got that 12% figure from.

I'll say this about Cam Newton: If I was cheering for another team with quarterback as a need, I would certainly want to draft him (and I sure as hell don't want to see him in three years against our fins). But the problem is expecting our former wr coach, Brain Daboll, and Tony Sparano to develop Cam Newton is wishful thinking. Not one of those guys has proven to me they can do such a thing. If we are going to take a quarterback, there better not be much development needed (ie Berkley and Luck next year) because expecting THIS coaching staff to take somewhat of a development project and mold him into a franchise quarterback is not realistic.

Very fair point. But I tend to think talent wins out in the end. If this coaching staff sucks as much as people tend to think, they won't be here very long, and Newton would be, and I doubt he'd be any worse for the wear.

 

[DAFINZ]

I changed my mind because he didn't get better. He just got worse. Being a QB in the NFL is a race of learning curves. Either the defenses have the learning curve and figure you out, or you have the learning curve and figure the defenses out. The defenses beat Chad Henne. They've figured him out and he's not figuring them out.

While I think from an outsider perspective this is true, its hard to ignore all the inner nitty bitty pieces that led to Henne's regression. Look at how the Jets coddled Sanchez and provided him with the appropriate weapons. As for Henne, what did Sparano/Henning do?
- No running game (check!)
- No downfield threat (check!)
- Stupid wildcat calls; especially after Henne has hit consecutive throws (double check!!!)
- Setting up 70% of pass plays using play action; even in situations when a 5 yr old knows you aint running the ball (check ++++!)
- Engraving in QBs mind to not take risks, get rid of the ball within 3 secs, and don't even think about adjusting routes at the line (check, check, and checkmate!)

I will admit I am still pro Henne but even so I don't know of many QBs that could have produced in this environment, much less a young QB who was entering his first full season. The above conditions should be listed in 'How to Destory a Young QB for Dummies' book (if that franchise is still active). I think Dan Reeves quote summed it up best when asked about Henne:
"A young quarterback with his talent, when he shows it …" Reeves said, shaking his head at the thought. "It's like Coach [Tom] Landry used to say, 'If you can do it one time, you ought to be able to teach them to do it all the time.' "

 

[ckparrothead]

I think it's amazing what QB play can do to perspective on some of these issues. If Chad Henne had played well, suddenly things would go from looking like they "gave him no weapons" to "look at the weapons they gave him". Even the running game would look better. Suddenly the Wildcat calls would go from a hindrance to look how effectively the wildcat takes the pressure off him, etc. And of course, if Henne had played well, then 90% of us would still be unaware of how insufficient Dan Henning's play calling has been. It took me quite a while to figure out the signs of it even with Henne sucking.

 

[Mr. Magoo]

I think it's amazing what QB play can do to perspective on some of these issues. If Chad Henne had played well, suddenly things would go from looking like they "gave him no weapons" to "look at the weapons they gave him". Even the running game would look better. Suddenly the Wildcat calls would go from a hindrance to look how effectively the wildcat takes the pressure off him, etc. And of course, if Henne had played well, then 90% of us would still be unaware of how insufficient Dan Henning's play calling has been. It took me quite a while to figure out the signs of it even with Henne sucking.

Neither Henne or Henning adapted well to seeing two deep safety looks, which we saw consistently all season thanks to our utter lack of a running game. Henning has been a power running game guy all his career and his rudimentary passing concepts were exposed under the pressure of having to carry the offense. And Henne, even going back to Michigan, has been training to beat blitz looks and single high coverage. When defenses ran those kinds of coverages last year, both he and the offense were effective.

Henne can still be very effective when the running game makes the passing game less of an inevitability. He's naturally aggressive and would benefit from more of a spacing passing game, which hopefully Daboll will bring (though frankly our WRs aren't really built for it). The problem is that you do need to be able to beat cover 2 at times if you want to win in the NFL. You need to be able to pass when the defense knows you're going to pass. Whether he has that level of ability (restricted to only the best quarterbacks in the league) or not is still an open question. At least to me.

 

[hoops]

chad henne has to see everything develop...he can't anticipate and he doesn't throw people open...against shell coverages you have to do both...and its because of him having to see everything develop that so many of his throws are a beat late tipped at the los eyeballs his targets for so long etc...tight red zone same issues... he gets away with a lot because of that big arm...

you might be able to hide some of his deficiencies with a legit running game and he can make plays against single high but in the end i think there's gonna be times where he's gonna have to make plays vs shell coverage and i just don't think you can teach chad henne to be something he's not...

imo the chad henne ship has sailed...i saw enough last year...i think defenses have figured him out and i think i've figured him out over the last 2 years