Can't miss prospect? OT edition

[GeauxFins2020]

Listen, I will preface this by saying I am absolutely 100 percent for trading down and collecting a next years 1st rounder from someone. However, I am beyond baffled by how many people buy into pre draft hype on players, especially at Tackle.

Grading tackles is one of the toughest things to do. The people that argue Sewell is a can't miss talent really need to figure out how they are getting to that conclusion. Is it stats? Is it what draft gurus say? Because I think we all should step back and make sure it isn't what people are just saying about a player and are making their own opinions instead.

Here is the highest graded tackles ever pre draft.

1	Joe Thomas	Wisconsin	2007
2	Jake Long	Michigan	2008
3	Leonard Davis	Texas	2001
4	Russell Okung	Oklahoma St	2010
5	Mike Williams	Texas	2002
6	Robert Gallery	Iowa	2004
7	Andre Smith	Alabama	2009
8	Eric Winston	Miami (FL)	2006
9	Trent Williams	Oklahoma	2010
10	Matt Kalil	USC	2012

Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Russell Okung, Eric Winston and Trent Williams were great pros. But thats only 50% of the top highest rated Tackles EVER.

The other 5 were complete busts in the NFL as tackles.

Jake Long, Eric Winston and Trent Williams all ended up leaving the franchise that drafted them because the team ended up not paying them.

This means only 2 of the highest graded tackles ever really had a true meaningful impact to their team that made them worth keeping around.

I realise this will get flamed. I realise that Sewell may very well be a HOF tackle when all is said and done. But we all need to realise he may very well (and the odds are in favor of) end up being a bust or at the very least may not be all he is built up to be.

If we draft Sewell I will pray he is a HOF, but people need to really stop pretending that he is a lock to be an all time great. The draft is a crap shoot. How people transition to the NFL is and has always been a lot of luck. People get paid a lot of money to only hit on 1 or 2 a year and that is considered good.

Great teams in the NFL build through the draft. Increasing the number of picks, and therefore the odds, is by far the best way to do this.

Every player could flame out, but you have to trust your evaluations. 1 sack in over 1200 pass attempts...highest rated underclassmen oline ever? Dudes a beast.

 

[GeauxFins2020]

Which is why unless Cincy was our only option to trade down I wouldn’t do a deal with them. The return for them coming up to get an OL is going to be nothing compared to Detroit Carolina or Denver coming up for a QB. Plus Cincy is at 5 we are at 3 thats only a 2 spot jump. It wouldn’t be the return we’re all hoping for.

If we don't want him, trading with Cindy is great. Two spots for two third round picks? Perfect. We still get our targeted playmaker.

 

[MiaFins31]

yeah but if you still get your guy at 5 ie you aren’t worried about the falcons at 4 taking your guy or you have multiple guys with similar grades you are willing to take one of why wouldn’t you take cincis high 2 to move back a couple spots? If that’s all it netted. Giving you 5 picks in the top 50

I would. If the qb bounty return doesn’t come my way it is what it is. And I want a blue chip prospect return. Confident I can get it at 5 might get trumped I drop too far anyways. But if it never comes then I make the bird in hand trade

this things got 3 1/2 months of fluidity to play out so...

I agree with you that’s why I said I don’t deal with Cincy unless they’re our only option. Of course if we got no other option you drop 2 spots but I doubt we get their high 2nd probably more like a 3rd and 4th and maybe a 2022 4th. In that case I would seriously consider taking Sewell or at least tell Cincy on the phone if that’s all you’re offering then I’m just going to take him. Plus Cincys owner Mike Brown literally never does draft day trades so that’s why I think our options are Detroit Carolina and Denver.

 

[hoops]

I agree with you that’s why I said I don’t deal with Cincy unless they’re our only option. Of course if we got no other option you drop 2 spots but I doubt we get their high 2nd probably more like a 3rd and 4th and maybe a 2022 4th. In that case I would seriously consider taking Sewell or at least tell Cincy on the phone if that’s all you’re offering then I’m just going to take him. Plus Cincys owner Mike Brown literally never does draft day trades so that’s why I think our options are Detroit Carolina and Denver.

i don’t think we’d trade out 2 spots in the top 5 for that. I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t for that peanuts return. They gonna have to give to get you just can’t hold qb return over em.

im aware of the brown thing he might just like I said earlier call your bluff assume that the falcons at 4 won’t take a tackle Id think that’s a pretty safe assumption personally and let it come right to him. Or again take his plan b tackle and musical chairs Jonah williams if one goes between 3 and 4.

they probably gonna part with aj green too so there’s gonna be a top 3 wr need in a heavy 11 personnel based offense at least I would think they would be heavy in that

 

[MiaFins31]

i don’t think we’d trade out 2 spots in the top 5 for that. I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t for that peanuts return. They gonna have to give to get you just can’t hold qb return over em.

im aware of the brown thing he might just like I said earlier call your bluff assume that the falcons at 4 won’t take a tackle Id think that’s a pretty safe assumption personally and let it come right to him. Or again take his plan b tackle and musical chairs Jonah williams if one goes between 3 and 4.

Yeah that’s why I said if we’re on the phone and he’s offering a 3 4 and a 2022 3/4 then I’m telling him no we’ll just take Sewell if that’s all you’re offering and call his bluff to see if we can get him to give up a little more. But knowing how the guy operates I think he says ok then take him.

When Chicago went from 3 to 2 to get Trubisky I believe they gave up a 3 4 and a future 3/4 so that’s kind of what I’m basing my thoughts on and that was for a QB. Although in our case Cincy would be coming 2 spots compared to Chicago’s 1 so you never know. We could potentially snag a 2.

 

[eMCee85]

Does anyone remember who our last #3 draft pick was? He was not only a complete bust, but he was embarrassing also.

 

[hoops]

Yeah that’s why I said if we’re on the phone and he’s offering a 3 4 and a 2022 3/4 then I’m telling him no we’ll just take Sewell if that’s all you’re offering and call his bluff to see if we can get him to give up a little more. But knowing how the guy operates I think he says ok then take him.

When Chicago went from 3 to 2 to get Trubisky I believe they gave up a 3 4 and a future 3/4 so that’s kind of what I’m basing my thoughts on and that was for a QB. Although in our case Cincy would be coming 2 spots compared to Chicago’s 1 so you never know. We could potentially snag a 2.

i might be in the minority but I don’t think many teams had that kind of grade on trubisky. I know I was surprised by that trade. Maybe though cause his physical gifts are high level. That usually helps drive things.

 

[MiaFins31]

i might be in the minority but I don’t think many teams had that kind of grade on trubisky. I know I was surprised by that trade. Maybe though cause his physical gifts are high level. That usually helps drive things.

Could be who knows. I’m calling Detroit Carolina or Denver first and asking for their 2022 #1 if we strike out on all 3 of those take Cincys call but if we ain’t talkin at least a 2 I’m probably just taking Sewell bc his value outweighs the value of a 3rd and 2 4ths or 2 3rds and 4th.

 

[Aqua Shadow]

I know Mike Brown is a stingy guy when it comes to draft picks but I would certainly rather give up a bit more of our later picks to get a first round pick out them. It’s worth a try I think. Offer a third to get us a first

 

[TONYS]

Devonta smith no matter what to quote Kevin Costner.

 

[Zounds]

Sewell has only been a starter in college for 1.5 years, and also didn’t play at all in 2020. I seem to be the only persons that has a problem with that. Sewell has a lot of risk IMO.

 

[AdamD13]

Grier has to let teams think we might take a QB otherwise he loses valuable leverage, I expect they'll fall in love with one of the top 3...wink, wink!

I respectfully disagree. Miami said today that Tua will be the 2021 starter. If that is their commitment, it is a risky move playing with the youngster’s confidence and not worth the drama.

The leverage is already there without Miami putting out they might take a QB... San Francisco, Denver, Carolina, Detroit all may be wanting to jump above Philly and each other to get their QB along with Cincy wanting to get Sewell to protect Burrow.

 

[Feverdream]

Sewell has only been a starter in college for 1.5 years, and also didn’t play at all in 2020. I seem to be the only persons that has a problem with that. Sewell has a lot of risk IMO.

He won the Outland Trophy...as a sophomore... an award typically won by 4th or 5th year players. If he'd been eligible for the draft, he'd have gone top 5. This guy literally does not fit within the system of normal analysis.

We've never seen a prospect this highly rated... ever.

 

[Dan13Forever]

I respectfully disagree. Miami said today that Tua will be the 2021 starter. If that is their commitment, it is a risky move playing with the youngster’s confidence and not worth the drama.

The leverage is already there without Miami putting out they might take a QB... San Francisco, Denver, Carolina, Detroit all may be wanting to jump above Philly and each other to get their QB along with Cincy wanting to get Sewell to protect Burrow.

Well put. On point.

 

[AdamD13]

This is basic NFL 101 fact. Going back to Buffalo we were severely outclassed at the QB position.

Now some want to project Tua being competitive with Allen in a year or 2. For the sake of the

debate I'll say that's possible. But what seems very obvious is the level of athlete you need

to have @QB in the NFL. I think it would be good to accommodate that spec and get some

kid in the program that meets that requirement. I think not doing that would be borderline

negligent. Bottom line there's nothing wrong with having some abundance at QB.

And banking on Fitzmagic again just ain't smart on a number of levels...

Where Miami was really outclassed was Denver’s secondary outclassing the Dolphins receivers. I am surprised the Dolphins WRs didn’t tweet out #MeToo after the game feeling they were being molested all game by the Bills secondary.

And on the other side of the ball, the Bills WR’s outclassed Miami’s secondary to the point where the Dolphins secondary must have shaking in their cleats after the game from separation anxiety after being torched all game.

If those two situations were reversed, we would be talking about how Tua outclassed Allen and Miami would be playing the Bills again this week.

And I am not saying Tua is at the level of play Allen is right now because he isn’t. Just saying Allen throwing to Diggs, Davis, Brown, and McKenzie while Tua is throwing to Bowden, Ford and Hollins (Parker is legit) creates an uneven playing field when comparing the two QBs.