How comfortable are you with Grier spearheading the rebuild?

[PSU Cane]

Simply put - my faith is lacking.

 

[Highzenga]

My eval so far:
a) consistently excellent value on trades for picks
b) league average returns on 1-2 round draft picks the past 4 years (just because you trade a player doesn't mean he's a bust, you need to look at the value you got back for them)
c) above average returns bottom of the draft / UDFA past 4 years
c) I applaud the boldness in scorching the roster for Tua (as long as they actually pick him), I do believe it was necessary to all but ensure the #1 pick in a 16-game season where variance is high
d) very few GMs have a track record of special talent in picking players. Most fall in the average range, some are horrid. If we agree Grier is in that average range, then it makes total sense to stock up on as much ammo as possible within a short window to 'surge' for a rebuild. Also, if you are average in picking, then making sure you get a franchise QB is the main thing. After that, you have much greater room for error to make 'safe picks'. So I agree that going all out to get the #1 for Tua makes a ton of sense.
e) could've structured the tank to allow for those on the squad to grow. Don't you want a stable offensive line to be able to evaluate skill players? I imagine there are ways of tanking that still allow you to keep continuity so the whole season is not a total waste. In fact I'd rather that they gut one whole side of the ball--say the defense for example---to at least allow the other half to make progress while still keeping the win total super low. Would also be great for team morale / culture buy-in to see at least one unit make obvious progress. Doesn't seem like he thought it through to this level.
f) Coaching staff seems relatively competent but jury still out on some position groups

I think people don't appreciate how much luck is involved with drafting and forget that hindsight is 20/20. I really think that most of the respected members on this forum applauded the minkah pick, and few could've thought he would flame out for the reason he did. Certainly the vast majority seemed to think it was a solid, defensible pick, same as Wilkins. Thus how can you blame Grier for this, especially since he was drafted under a different defensive system entirely?

Therefore, luck also extends to drafts as a whole. Say we end up with 8 1st and 2nd round picks the next 2 years. Statistically that is a very small sample size. Even if you had great decision making, there is a high chance that several of those could flame out. How many people panned Jeff Ireland's and Rick Spielman's drafts while here? But they've drafted quite well since then. Small sample size. Put another way, given the same quality of decision making, those 8 picks could end up being 3 all pros or none, just based on luck, and the difference could sink or swim your franchise.

A huge pet peeve is seeing people judge a decision or small set of decisions simply based on the outcome. You really need to look at the underlying reasons when the sample size is small, and realize sometimes things fail even when you make great decisions. That's what makes getting Tua so critical, because margin for error is so much greater if you have a transcendent talent at QB.

It's like the stock market...if you have a base of money (Tua + good coaching staff), then you can afford to invest in mutual funds (take safe picks) rather than trying to beat the market, and still retire comfortably.

From another direction, if you don't think you can beat the market, the smartest thing to do is ensure a franchise qb any way you can, load up on picks and money, and surround them with good coaches. Then try to be league average on your fa / draft returns.

Bottom line: I like the way overall he has setup the big picture, but don't think he has any special ability to pick'em in the draft. As always, we will need a bit of good luck with our picks -- or at least not bad luck -- to have the tank truly be worth it but the overall strategy makes a lot of sense. Hopefully he realizes he is not a talent evaluation genius and relies on a consensus approach with respected folks like Ozzie Newsom to pick our top picks.

Great post! I couldn’t have said it any better myself. If we can land the true franchise qb, it makes everything else easier.

 

[ohall]

The influence is irrelevant here IMO, because as you stated, nobody really knows... What I dont like about Grier, and why I think he's a long shot is simply his career path and learning experience... First of all, he spent all(or at least most) of his pro carrer on a team that was constantly mediocre, failed to secure a good QB, failed to field a decent OL and also failed to field a decent offense. What is it that makes it likely someone with that resume ends up being great? Outside of pure blind luck I mean...

Who did this guy learn from that really makes you say, guy is ready to go out on his own...
What situation did he really nail where you can say, this guy is going to be great at building a football team?
How come during those 20 years, not 1 team decided to promote him to their organization?
How many guys would you like running the next draft over Grier off the top of your head? (I think this one really takes the cake.... Pie...)

All fair points. But the way I look at it is. Let's say he agreed with 90% of the decisions made during his entire past tenure. Some may look at that as a bad or even awful thing. Something that suggests he will screw up this opportunity he now has. Maybe. I look at it if that is true he prob learned far more from those mistakes than any correct decisions he agreed with. I'm sure you agree. You learn far more from your mistakes in life than your successes. I think that applies here as well.

I believe, and it is purely my opinion based on the type of personality he appears to have and some of the things I've read about Grier in recent year. He appears to have no or almost no ego. He appears to be the ultimate team player so to speak. Now that can be good, and that of course can be bad. I think it is prob far more important to have a alpha as your GM. I can see where this may in fact be a negative for him. But that is why I think he hasn't been promoted sooner. He doesn't appear to be into self promotion over others.

I think he has learned from everyone he has been around. How can he not have taken something positive from all of his bosses.

 

[Superself]

What logical reasons can people give that points towards Grier being a good GM? I just dont see any... I dont even think he was a legit GM candidate. His resume is basically 20 years learning the ropes on a mediocre franchise that failed one time after another to secure a QB, a decent OL or even a top half offense.

I mean great, they have a **** ton of picks and money now. Thats the easy part, anyone can strip an NFL team of all its talent in exchange for cash and draft picks.

You can just look at what he has done so far THIS YEAR. He has done well with signing X and other contracts. He hasn't done a boneheaded thing yet this year. That's his stamp on things so far and that is what I'm evaluating him by. That's about as good as you could hope for at this point.

 

[Coach_Rob]

I'm honestly trying to figure out how bad they are going to botch the picks. Hate to be negative but it's the dolphins ways.

 

[Paco 3]

I'm not sure Miami has ever had the likes of talent evaluators such as Marvin Allen and Reggie McKenzie, in the organization. We fans won't know how good or bad until a few years down the road. I've always felt Miami was behind the eight ball, with regards to scouting and talent evaluating. Since Grier took over as the main player in the F/O, he's changed things. Miami now has scouts at practices, which they never had before. They have scouts in numbers at games and seem to be doing things very differently than in years past. This may be nothing, but again it could lead to more signings like Ledbetter and Williams as UDFA and be the difference between drafting a star or drafting just another guy? I'm very anxious to see where this all leads. If nothing comes of it, than Grier finally gets shown the door. With regards to Minkah Fitzpatrick, Grier had no other option and he did quite well. That decisiveness showed me a lot.

No disrespect to Allen and Mckenzie but we had Joe Thomas & Bobby Bethard picking the talent during our Glory Days. Hopefully they do as well.

 

[phintim]

The past 4 years under Tbum I expected us to overpay for free agents and make poor trades in the draft to aquire Tbums coveted players. I was not disappointed in the free agency part and while we didn't blow as many picks in trades like Tbum did in the Jets as I expected the drafts outside the first round were a bit underwhelming.

This years draft with the Rosen trade was puzzling for me as we lost some draft capital to aquire Rosen and I am awaiting the returns on this years draft class before passing judgement but Rosen has shown more than expected so we shall see.

Bottom line Griers got good trade value so far imo
This years draft class is stiil up for judgement and unfortunately no one has stood out yet other than our fa wide receiver Williams
Free agent pickup are impossible to tell with all this churning.

 

[SoCal Finatic]

How comfortable am I with hypothetical, unproven draft success?

 

[BigNastyFish]

Not.

He's been here for almost two decades and for almost two decades Miami has had below average talent across the board.

Is all that his fault - of course not but I'm sure he's had a heavy hand in acquiring several below par players with premium draft picks recently, Charles Harris being the main culprit.

Regardless, it is what it is and I hope he hits them all out of the park over the next few years.

I'm getting too old to wait.

Seriously! That's so like grumpy old man stuff!

*enjoyed!

 

[hoops]

0.0

I’m all for tanking but this product we are fielding is utterly unwatchable.

And contract extensions for scrubs even. Jakeem grants face mask catches the ball better than he does. Guys go around Jesse Davis like he’s standing still. What damn tape is this staff watching to give extensions here? Was it a finheaven poll driving things?

Trade his hand picked #1 pick last year a year later and get a pass?

Bottom line is get #1 pick and get tua or heads should roll. Anything else fail

This teams fielding x and a scout team.

 

[BigNastyFish]

The influence is irrelevant here IMO, because as you stated, nobody really knows... What I dont like about Grier, and why I think he's a long shot is simply his career path and learning experience... First of all, he spent all(or at least most) of his pro carrer on a team that was constantly mediocre, failed to secure a good QB, failed to field a decent OL and also failed to field a decent offense. What is it that makes it likely someone with that resume ends up being great? Outside of pure blind luck I mean...

Who did this guy learn from that really makes you say, guy is ready to go out on his own...
What situation did he really nail where you can say, this guy is going to be great at building a football team?
How come during those 20 years, not 1 team decided to promote him to their organization?
How many guys would you like running the next draft over Grier off the top of your head? (I think this one really takes the cake.... Pie...)

Oh golly! Please! Can I answer these questions???

>>> insert dog licking him chops <<<

Who did this guy learn from that really makes you say, guy is ready to go out on his own...

Well let's see. Grier's background includes his father, Associate Director of Pro Personnel for the Houston Texans, Pete Carol (I think a SB winner), Bill Belicheat (another SB winner), Bill Parcells (yet another SB winner) and (bonus round) spring retreats with the Easter Bunny (ya know, finding golden eggs etc.).

What situation did he really nail where you can say, this guy is going to be great at building a football team?

That's just way too easy. See December 31st 2018 and hence today. And of course pay close attention to the prodigious trades, dead wood ejections, phenomenal salary cap reallocation, Marvelous Marvin Allen and Reggie McKenzie and... I could go on but why?

How come during those 20 years, not 1 team decided to promote him to their organization?

Humm. I wonder... Really? In addition, if this gig proves out for him -- I'd say he's played his cards rather brilliantly!

How many guys would you like running the next draft over Grier off the top of your head?

ZERO. This is Grier's time to shine. He's been on this arc his whole life and I for one believe he's already proven he's the BEST MAN for the job!
Pretty sure ain't no dude gonna pull off what he's pulled off in 9 months!

The rest of the story is to be written...

*** Beyond that -- cheer up dude!

 

[Paco 3]

Grier has been here through various regime changes since 2002. He is the last man standing. I recall the PC conference the team had with TBaum Gase & Grier, when he was made GM. The quote that stands out was ,”the dysfunction stops now.” Well it has not.

This is all on Mr. Ross. When he bought the team from Huezinga, it gave the mercenary Tuna the out to take the $ and bailout. Ross got stuck with Ireland. The dysfunction however began with Wayne.

Mr Robbie and Don Shula made this franchise one of the Crown Jewel of the NFL. Joe Robbie was shrewd and ran a tight fisted business. It was his only business it had to work. For Wayne it was a toy. Big difference. Try as he may and giving us fans what we wanted. LI believe we became cursed when Wayne fired Shula to bring in JJ. As much as Wayne tried JJ , Wannstauch, Satan, Cameron and finally Tuna.

Ross another Billionaire with multiple business interest buys our team. He was not solely focused on running the team. In everything, outside of the product on the field, Mr Ross has done good things for the organization and community. As I said earlier, this is on you Mr Ross, you hand picked Philbin, you brought in TBaum, you hand picked Gase.

Has dysfunction with this team peaked ? It appears not. I would have preferred a complete flush job. It is your team.You have more inside info on Grier than we do. I hope for all of us season ticket holder and fans you made the right call on Grier. You owe us to get this right and bring the franchise back to respectability. You are going to have to earn the next generation of fans.

 

[SoCal Finatic]

Grier has been here through various regime changes since 2002. He is the last man standing. I recall the PC conference the team had with TBaum Gase & Grier, when he was made GM. The quote that stands out was ,”the dysfunction stops now.” Well it has not.

This is all on Mr. Ross. When he bought the team from Huezinga, it gave the mercenary Tuna the out to take the $ and bailout. Ross got stuck with Ireland. The dysfunction however began with Wayne.

Mr Robbie and Don Shula made this franchise one of the Crown Jewel of the NFL. Joe Robbie was shrewd and ran a tight fisted business. It was his only business it had to work. For Wayne it was a toy. Big difference. Try as he may and giving us fans what we wanted. LI believe we became cursed when Wayne fired Shula to bring in JJ. As much as Wayne tried JJ , Wannstauch, Satan, Cameron and finally Tuna.

Ross another Billionaire with multiple business interest buys our team. He was not solely focused on running the team. In everything, outside of the product on the field, Mr Ross has done good things for the organization and community. As I said earlier, this is on you Mr Ross, you hand picked Philbin, you brought in TBaum, you hand picked Gase.

Has dysfunction with this team peaked ? It appears not. I would have preferred a complete flush job. It is your team.You have more inside info on Grier than we do. I hope for all of us season ticket holder and fans you made the right call on Grier. You owe us to get this right and bring the franchise back to respectability. You are going to have to earn the next generation of fans.

Very well said Huizenga was notoriously cheap, and did no favors for the franchise. Ross is looking like another Huizenga, albeit with a more open pocket book.I hope, if this transition doesn't work within 3 years, he sells the team.

 

[dadecounty]

Idc what anyone says. Grier and Flores will be fired in a couple of years bc they will botch the rebuild. Flores is a corch, he shouldn't be a HC. New England makes any coach look good. There's no history of good coaches that come out of there. We will not be any good until the end of the 2020's.

 

[andyahs]

Idc what anyone says. Grier and Flores will be fired in a couple of years bc they will botch the rebuild. Flores is a corch, he shouldn't be a HC. New England makes any coach look good. There's no history of good coaches that come out of there. We will not be any good until the end of the 2020's.

Flores will be fine as a corch.