Ludacris
FinHeaven VIP
One thing I dont' really see being discussed about Matt Ryan is his out pattern throws. It takes a strong arm to throw a quick out or a deep out to the long side of the field because a quick and fast CB can jump those routes. Furthermore, it requires both vision and accuracy to pull the trigger on those throws and, more importantly, to know when not to pull the trigger on those throws. Now Ryan's receivers weren't exactly world-beaters, so they didn't have the physical ability to consistently get open for those throws. Most of the times he threw it his receiver was either well open or facing a CB that couldn't take advantage of jumping the route.
Now in Miami with a super-fast Ginn starting to become a top receiver, and it's a fair guess that we'll also be adding more receivers via FA and the draft over the next 2 offseasons, I think the Dolphins QB needs to have the ability to consistently make those throws, both the quick out and the deep out. I'm not saying Ryan cannot do it, I'm just saying that I'm not totally convinced about it. He is definitely more accurate throwing straight ahead than judging crossing patterns, so I wonder how he's going to do with true speed freaks like Ginn? He's accurate, but he sometimes throws near-misses that end up being caught because of receiver adjustments rather than perfect throws into a safe-window that require receiver adjustments. In the NFL, the CB play is lethal. Some have hands of stone, but they all have athleticism and are extremely good at analyzing routes.
A guy like Ginn is going to get a big cushion because people fear his deep speed, so he's going to be open a lot on the quick outs once he hones his route running. He's going to see a lot of double-coverage (much of it zonal) for the deep outs. Ryan is going to need to hone his ability to hit the fast receiver in a position where it's not interceptable yet still catchable at the sidelines. I think he can do it, but it's not his strength IMHO. Much like Flacco, he's best hitting a target moving vertically (either towards him or away from him) and less stellar hitting a target moving laterally (at a right angle to him). Furthermore, timing patterns with fast receivers are going to demand that he get that right. So, I'm not prepared to anoint him the 2nd coming of Drew Bledsoe just yet ... and some of the comparisons made by his many fans are just silly. Ryan will never be a Marino--nor will anyone else--or a John Elway, nor a Jim Kelly IMHO, so right there let's be clear, he doesn't have Peyton Manning potential, and at best he might become an Eli Manning, though I don't expect it to happen.
This is one of those years I really wish both Ryan and Brohm had been in the Senior Bowl so we could see how A) Ryan does with top class WR talent running laterally, and B) how Brohm deals with a new system and teammates. I was quite disappointed to see Ryan skip the Senior Bowl, but even less impressed with Brohm's decision to follow suit.
Much of the reason we're hearing all this hype about Henne, Flacco, etc. is because they had the chance to show their stuff as the A team without being overshadowed in the media's eyes by the top rated prospects. Now the top rated guy on many QB lists, Ryan, is being automatically thrown up there with previous top rated QB prospects based solely on a great collegiate career and good height. That kinda scares me.
Marino was a freak of nature, tremendous arm, fantastic accuracy, world-class read-and-react skills, exceptional vision, ultra-quick release, and a born leader. His problem was his ego got the best of him as a senior and he forced way too many throws. He recognized double teams, etc., but he threw the ball anyway because he believed he was good enough to beat any coverage at any time. All Shula had to do was reel him back in a bit and explain when not to make those foolish throws, because deep down inside Marino already knew it was a bad choice on those throws.
With Ryan, I don't see that kind of arm or any of the other skills. I see a good read-and-react guy with good accuracy and an exceptional knowledge of his adversaries weaknesses and enough ability to exploit that. I see a born leader who wills his team to win, but not someone with surgical precision. I wonder how he'll do when the NFL window is very small and the 2.4 seconds of protection gives him precious little time to make a decision and get the ball away?
On the plus side I see the current administration securing a lot of big targets to greatlly increase the size of his window, and a lot fewer intermediate routes being called. The short routes underneath to big targets will be fine. The deep routes he's really good at, and with less intermediate routes being called (like deep outs), hopefully that minimizes his interception exposure. But still, I wish there were a QB available that didn't have as many of those types of questions.
Excellent post. What you say is very true. You don't see a lot of the intermediate out patterns being thrown to. This could be either because of the plays called or the WR just can't get seperation. I did however see Ryan throw may be a hand full of intermediate out patterns and intermediate comebacks routes and those were accurate. He can anticipate those routes before the WR breaks out of the pattern and then puts zip on those passes. He doesn't have a cannon of an arm but the passes get there quick enough and on target. I am pretty confident it can beat an NFL CB jumping on the ball - but that's my projection. Ginn is a speedster who, should by the time the season starts, can get out of breaks and gain a lot of seperation. I can see Ryan's throws getting there on time. That would be exciting to watch if it happens.
In the NFL he will have a lot less time to throw. But what i like about Ryan is his thought process. He wastes little time reading and reacting. Like what adam said, his ability to make pre-snap reads will help him with buying him more time in making decisions and throws.
He's no Marino or Elway but he is the kind of QB you can build a team around.