Parsons versus Sewell

[Mr Fan]

This ^^
You either get Sewell, Parsons, or trade back for a haul and still get Chase, Smith, W

If Jets take Wilson, won't teams be willing to trade up for Fields? Seems like Miami is in a great spot if they end up wit #3 overall.

The luster may be wearing off the young QB from Ohio........

 

[jimthefin]

Big game for Fields tomorrow.

If he does not play well he may see himself slide a bit.

I could see Wilson going ahead of him now anyway.

I also expect Trey Lance to impress during workouts and move up.

 

[RobertHorry]

Don't touch the phone and draft Smith at 3.

 

[Zounds]

I’m not for drafting Sewell, but if we did, he’s playing LT for us. Jackson would be moved to RT IMO. Kindley and Davis would be the OGs.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

It only takes one team to fall in love...

Not many teams had Daniel Jones or Dwayne Haskins as highly rated as where each of them were drafted. So, it's best to let this play out and see who comes calling... and how desperate they sound.

Grier took O'Brien to the cleaners, so we know he has the ability when he sees a mark; let's hope one calls.

The Dolphins could end up getting a ton of picks and being in a similar position next year. If a team trades up to #3 and Miami gets their 2022 #1, who knows what that pick could become? Maybe you just keep playing it forward, stockpiling picks and young talent. As players reach their contracts, you've got another young player ready to go if need be.

I haven't researched it, but I'd guess over the last 20 years the Patriots have had the most draft picks of any team. They annually play the comp game better than anybody. Granted, those picks are 3rd round and below so we're talking about players with less of a chance. But, Tom Brady was a comp pick.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Only the Bama homers...

It's hard when you fixate on one player. I love Smith and do believe he'd be a perfect fit for Tua in Miami. But I imagine Chase would be a difference maker as well, or Waddle. There are seven or eight receivers that may end up going in the first round. Anyone of them could help Miami.

 

[Feverdream]

It's hard when you fixate on one player. I love Smith and do believe he'd be a perfect fit for Tua in Miami. But I imagine Chase would be a difference maker as well, or Waddle. There are seven or eight receivers that may end up going in the first round. Anyone of them could help Miami.

Not all of them obviously, but there are a couple of those 'bama homers who are just obsessively driven to promote any 'bama kid, and denigrate the competition. ...and that has kind of bled over into some of the analysis here, especially from some of the casual fans. They keep hearing Smith, Smith, Smith... and they forget that Chase had the same sort of season last year (at 19 years old), or that Smith's chances went up when Waddle went down.
Smith, absolutely is a good player... anyone who denies that is nuts, but he isn't the ONLY player in his tier, he just isn't.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Not all of them obviously, but there are a couple of those 'bama homers who are just obsessively driven to promote any 'bama kid, and denigrate the competition. ...and that has kind of bled over into some of the analysis here, especially from some of the casual fans. They keep hearing Smith, Smith, Smith... and they forget that Chase had the same sort of season last year (at 19 years old), or that Smith's chances went up when Waddle went down.
Smith, absolutely is a good player... anyone who denies that is nuts, but he isn't the ONLY player in his tier, he just isn't.

It's very possibly that Miami's front office isn't even considering a wide receiver at pick 1A. I think it's likely in the conversation considering the obvious need, but Grier and Flores may feel they can get another player there and still upgrade at wide receiver at 1b.

 

[Feverdream]

It's very possibly that Miami's front office isn't even considering a wide receiver at pick 1A. I think it's likely in the conversation considering the obvious need, but Grier and Flores may feel they can get another player there and still upgrade at wide receiver at 1b.

I'm hoping that they are not. It isn't a popular opinion here, but I'm a value drafter, and when I see a deep pool at a certain position, my natural inclination is refrain from being the first person to dip into it. I'm going to let it sink down a bit, knowing that 1) there will still be good targets left there and 2) the guy I like might slide down anyway. I'm only going to choose first if I am ABSOLUTELY sure that there is a quality gap... and in this pool, I don't see it.
If there was a tall, fast guy with great hands... I'd do it, but there isn't. Every one of these candidates is one or the other. I'm not selecting a WR high unless he has every box checked, and none of these do. Sure, they might become Marvin Harrison... but I want a guy who can succeed even if he loses a step, and that means a taller receiver. That guy might be Terrance Marshall, and he also fits into my age category, he's only 20... and he is expected to be there at 1b or even 2a.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I'm hoping that they are not. It isn't a popular opinion here, but I'm a value drafter, and when I see a deep pool at a certain position, my natural inclination is refrain from being the first person to dip into it. I'm going to let it sink down a bit, knowing that 1) there will still be good targets left there and 2) the guy I like might slide down anyway. I'm only going to choose first if I am ABSOLUTELY sure that there is a quality gap... and in this pool, I don't see it.
If there was a tall, fast guy with great hands... I'd do it, but there isn't. Every one of these candidates is one or the other. I'm not selecting a WR high unless he has every box checked, and none of these do. Sure, they might become Marvin Harrison... but I want a guy who can succeed even if he loses a step, and that means a taller receiver. That guy might be Terrance Marshall, and he also fits into my age category, he's only 20... and he is expected to be there at 1b or even 2a.

I 100 percent agree. Not to always make the "Patriot Way" comparison, but Bill Bellichick has rarely taken a wide receiver in round 1 and that is the most successful franchise over the last 20 years. I say that because I think Flores may feel the same way.

I definitely want a wide receiver in the draft. Maybe even two of those first four picks. I do value the position and it's the biggest need for Miami. But I'm with you. Marshall is a player I really like as well and there's value well into the first round and maybe even R2.

 

[PSU Cane]

And no WR has won the Heisman since 1991 but that could happen for Smith, no?

Why so many people get wrapped up in comparing what happened in previous years to what is happening now is beyond me. They have no correlation.

I mean, if that’s the logic then MIA will NEVER be a great franchise again because, well, they haven’t been one in such a long time. Right?

So why do we bother......



Or this false narrative about Devonta Smith’s slim frame somehow meaning he’s more at risk of failing. And unworthy of a top 10 pick — even though most draft pundits have him in the top 10. And he’ll likely actually be drafted there.

Absolutely - I think Smith does win the Heisman. I think he's the best WR in the draft. I also think WRs may go earlier this year than in recent history due to success the Chiefs have had as well as other positions lacking elite talent at the top.

That said, saying there's no correlation or benefit to comparing recent history is flawed logic in my opinion. You take in as many data points of information as you can for a complete analysis.

Do you not use recent trends/data to help buy a house or a car? Time of year, market fluctuations, etc? What about the same logic when interviewing a future coach? Do you look at his win/loss 15 years ago? Probably not. But you do look at how well his team's did the last 5 years, what schemes he ran, etc. to see what value he would bring to the team now. It's not the ONLY information i use but it's one of many data points.

The NFL Draft is no different. You use all inputs to determine value:
- Positional value
- Player value
- Quality of position depth
- Team needs
- Trends (Draft trends, scheme trends)
- Upcoming free agents
- Coaching changes
- GM trends

If you felt you were 2 players away from a deep playoff run, OT and RB, and you're picking 3 and 25, who do you pick where? I bet 95% of the time you will pick the OT #3 and the RB #25. History has shown RBs fall and OTs are hard to find......positional value, draft value. Guys like Barkley, McCaffrey buck the trend but it's still a trend. You have to decide if the players each year are good enough or valuable enough to buck that trend. Guys like Chase, Smith and Waddle might be for a lot of teams desperate for offense. Other teams might look at recent history and see AJ Brown, Metcalf, Higgins, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Deebo, DJ Moore, Ridley, Juju, etc all go in the 20's or R2 and think with college spread offenses these days and the volume of WRs coming out, talent can be had later while other positions like QB, OT, CB and Edge still have limited numbers and are usually unavailable in free agency.

Every year is different. But analytics and trends do provide value.

 

[PSU Cane]

To me, the only situation that would fit the idea you trade back and still take Devonta Smith would be if you legit scared the Bengals into thinking you're taking Penei Sewell, and so they come calling to trade up to the #3 pick, and so you end up slipping back to #5.

But that's getting pretty cute.

That is getting cute but it could work. Sewell is an elite talent and Cincy needs OL help to protect their young franchise QB.

The Bears traded a 3rd and 4th to move up 1 spot for Trubisky. The 49ers moved back 1 slot with TB (Wirffs) and got a 4th. It does happen when teams love a guy and panic.

 

[EJay]

That said, saying there's no correlation or benefit to comparing recent history is flawed logic in my opinion.

You’re missing my point.

There is no correlation in terms of how high a player might or should be drafted. Each draft is different.

For example Baker Mayfield went #1 in the 2020 draft but wouldn’t have in many other draft years. So, does that mean CLE shouldn’t have drafted him #1? Absolutely not.

Someone has to get drafted first. Then someone second. Then third. Every. Single. Year. Strange how that works.

If Devonta Smith is the 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. player in the 2021 draft then he should be selected somewhere around that position. And likely will. Where he may have been drafted in other drafts is immaterial. And in no way makes him a reach.

 

[PSU Cane]

You’re missing my point.

There is no correlation in terms of how high a player might or should be drafted. Each draft is different.

For example Baker Mayfield went #1 in the 2020 draft but wouldn’t have in many other draft years. So, does that mean CLE shouldn’t have drafted him #1? Absolutely not.

Someone has to get drafted first. Then someone second. Then third. Every. Single. Year. Strange how that works.

If Devonta Smith is the 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. player in the 2021 draft then he should be selected somewhere around that position. And likely will. Where he may have been drafted in other drafts is immaterial. And in no way makes him a reach.

You come across as completely condescending. I'm pretty sure i'm able to count 1-3 and I get your point. I just disagree. Positional value has merit REGARDLESS of year, as does BPA and teams needs. Yes every year the players change so the value of that player and/or position will change with it and if Smith goes #5 this year he may have gone #9 last bc of the other players. Still my point is some teams see need and positional value OVER BPA. If that BPA is a WR and they see 10 guys on their top 40 board they like at WR that they don't value as much as OT, and only 3 OTs, they may be inclined to take that OT over a WR many of us think is a better player.....and i'm saying you see trends like that in past drafts, or trends with the types of schemes/players the NFL is transitioning to.

 

[RMLogic]

You draft your highest rated player regardless of position. No doubt that would be Sewell. Then pick Najee Harris at 1B. Sign a FA WR like Samuel.