So...kyler Murray Has Declared. What Does Everyone Think? | Page 11 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

So...kyler Murray Has Declared. What Does Everyone Think?

ANUFan said:
Clearly, If you're going to make that decision then you have to be sure he's a can't miss type of prospect.

Let me ask you your question another way. What if you half-*** it and miss out on the player and he turns on to be the next coming? I'm sure you're not going to complain either, right?

Bottom line, I'd rather go hard if I believe (through the scouting process) he's the one vs. half-*** it and end up losing on the prospect. Only time will tell if he wasn't the right one for your franchise.

For the record I don't like Murray's make-up and personally wouldn't go all out for him.
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First, I've said a few times already, I'm willing to move up, . . . some, to get a QB.
Second, as I've said and I'm sure you'll agree, every QB taken top 5 has been believed "(through the scouting process) he's the one." I'll not beat a dead horse,but hx shows a significant majority of top 5 QB are nothing more than average . . . at best. That's why why I'm willing to move up though I don't want to "go hard."

My problem, as I've said elsewhere, is a) the odds are against success, some (not fingering you) seem oblivious to the odds, and some (again, not fingering you) don't seem to realize 'missing' sets the team back another 4-5 years. There is a segment in FA who read that as 'don't try,' or 'willing to accept mediocrity.' No, I realize risk. NOT moving up and taking a QB as opposed to a 'can't miss CB is a risk. Moving up from #13 to #11 is a risk. Betting the farm is a risk. This isn't a question of not taking a risk. It's a question of admitting the risk, a willingness to lose the farm in the risk, and a willingness to accept the judgement of the FO (ANY team's FO), since they'll likely not pick the guy some fans want. I'm not willing to bet the farm. The only difference between you, me, and some others ISN"T risk vs. no risk. It's how much risk. we have the same goal. Want the same thing.
 
LargoFin said:
Murray is not quite as good as Wilson coming out, not as experienced, not as pro polished as Russell was. Murray still has some highschoolish throws in his repertoire, where he hangs it high down the seam or the middle. It's not too bad because he does not do it a lot but here and there.

He also needs to see it to throw it, so there are anticipation issues. But overall he is the same type as Russ.
The offense will have to run the ball more than we are accustomed to because he is a low volume passer coming in. When they give him larger passing volume and responsibilities he will have to break contain a lot just like Russ.
I don't think he is good rolling left and throwing, so they will have to time it during the game to roll him right.
It will be like that, very similar to Russ. Except he will have to tighten his game a little the first year, no ducks down the middle, and more anticipation and timing routes. He does not have a lot of experience and he will need that the first year.

As far as some other low volume passers, there were Wentz, Newton, Allen, Russand even Dalton. Allen of course is garbage. Wentz is always injured. Newton has been okay but is having a surgery this offseason. So the two guys who have had injury free career are Dalton and Russ, the two guys on the short side. Plus Russ has been the best of these low volume passers, and it's because of his quickness. All that bodes well for Murray.
He has two things he will need to increase his passing volume, a big arm, and great quickness.
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Strange framing. Seattle runs so much, because:

1. They've had a bad OL and want to limit hits to Wilson.
2. They have an outdated philosophy and don't understand that it's much more efficient to pass on neutral situations than to run.

Wilson is super efficient despite facing way too many 3rd and long situations after the running game is stuffed on 1st and 2nd down.
 
Murray posted the highest EPA per dropback of any recent QB. Passes at the NFL level carry a much higher EPA than rushes except for short-yardage situations. Running on neutral downs only makes sense when you're protecting something (a lead, a bad QB, a bad OL).
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Murray posted the highest EPA per dropback of any recent QB. Passes at the NFL level carry a much higher EPA than rushes except for short-yardage situations. Running on neutral downs only makes sense when you're protecting something (a lead, a bad QB, a bad OL).
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Is the EPA the reason you believe a QB who had 377 attempts in 15 games (and a significant numberof those were dumpoffs) can be trusted into 550 attempts in the NFL his first season?
 
LargoFin said:
Is the EPA the reason you believe a QB who had 377 attempts in 15 games (and a significant numberof those were dumpoffs) can be trusted into 550 attempts in the NFL his first season?
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No, it just highlights how stupid it would be to limit your offense to plays of lesser value. If he passes more frequently, will he turn into a pumpkin?
 
j-off-her-doll said:
No, it just highlights how stupid it would be to limit your offense to plays of lesser value. If he passes more frequently, will he turn into a pumpkin?
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Okay, that's fair. We will run the offense the way we need to. And he will not necessarily turn into a pumpkin, and that was my point. His arm and quickness give the team a level of confidence, in addition to general excellent play.

General excellent play is a given, we all know he is an amazing player overall. But there has to be more than that to give us the level of confidence that he can do more volume wise and still be excellent in the NFL, at a tougher level. His arm and quickness, his intrinsic traits give us the level of confidence that we can run the offense with a higher passing volume. (Whereas with Wentz and Newton it was their arm and frame for example.)

Nonetheless, I still think a team should not just run with it out of the gate but should bring him up slowly.
 
Murray will go No.1 overall to the Cardinals which sucks because I was hoping to be able to get him. I like him more than Tua.
 
foozool13 said:
That’s exactly my point. He’s going to have to have amazing accuracy and vision.

To assume Murray is going to be that good is a very rare thing. Brees is an all time great. There isn’t many of those very often. Hes the exception not the rule.
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FFS, Brees is the Green Giant when compared to Murray, who is tiny. Ignore that "epa" or other statistical BS.
 
I like the idea of trading up to 5 with the bucs if murrays there. assuming the price is not workable to get to #1
 
mrbunglez said:
Burkhardt also represents Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury, whose team has the No. 1 overall pick. In October, before the NFL was on his radar, Kingsbury said he would “take [Murray] with the first pick of the draft if I could.”

ProFootballTalk: Report: Kyler Murray hires Erik Burkhardt as agent
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/02/11/report-kyler-murray-hires-erik-burkhardt-as-agent/

And in other news about Murray........

When it comes to Kyler Murray’s commitment to football, actions will speak much more loudly than words. The problem for the NFL team that picks Murray could be that his ultimate action — a return to baseball — comes only after a draft choice has been squandered on him.

ProFootballTalk: A's not giving up on Kyler Murray, which could complicate his NFL prospects
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...ray-which-could-complicate-his-nfl-prospects/
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He also represents....BRIAN FLORES.

Which kind of explains why a few weeks ago I received a note from an NFL insider that said Kyler Murray's choices are 1) Arizona, 2) Miami, 3) Baseball.
 
meatpardle said:
Good for him, hopefully will put an end to the 'he's not committed' bullshit (but I doubt it).

I'm not sold on drafting him, my concern is that the offense has to be tailored in order to maximise his skills, and then you're relying on the rest of the offense fitting into that. We struggle enough to put together an O-line to protect a standard QB, who knows what alterations will need to be made to how the line play to help get the best out of Murray.

Is it reasonable to suggest that because of this the QB we choose to babysit/back up Murray would need to be a similar style? And therefore who we choose to release/sign prior to the draft might indicate whether we are looking at Murray seriously?
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But shouldn't that be the way it's done, find maximum skill and taylor around it rather than bend said skill to a scheme that doesn't fit ala making Marino sprint to make handoffs?
 
BetOnline.ag has Kyler Murray's draft position over/under at 9.5 with -200 on the Under.

They have the Miami Dolphins at +150 for his future destination, versus +500 for the Giants, Jaguars, and Cardinals, and +600 for the Raiders.

Those are remarkably short odds for that type of futures bet, IMO.

While Twitter immediately jumped on the Erik Burkhardt/Kliff Kingsbury connection, it appears the gambling books immediately jumped on the Erik Burkhardt/Brian Flores connection.

And someone I know had a hell of a point about this. Remember that Kliff Kingsbury was immediately one of Brian Flores's top options for OC when he first interviewed with the Dolphins. That was probably because of the Erik Burkhardt connection.

EDIT: Sean Kiernan is Brian Flores's direct handler. He works for Erik Burkhardt's agency.
 
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phinfan40353 said:
I see now why the Dolphins organization hasn't been good at football for a long time.

Fan bases tend to reflect the organization's mentality in some regard.

Ours is impatience and indecision.

Every off-season, there is a mentality of "one player away". We look forward to free agency. The "big splash", "the hot coach" and "which jersey to buy". The mindset is very short term.

During the end of the year it is "tear it down", "build it the right way", "if it takes years do it", "build in the trenches". The mindset is long term planning.

So, here we are again. Not even a week after "tearing it down" and beginning our "years to do it" and "there will be pain" process, we get a glimpse of this year's "can't miss prospect" and everything goes out the window. We are ready to sacrifice three more years to make our "Super Bowl run".

Any guesses where this freshly hatched scheme ends? Yep, 11 months from now "who hired these clowns?", "Lose for Lawrence"..... Followed a few weeks later by "how much to give up to get Tua"?

I'm embarrassed by how quickly some of you abandon logic just to catch lightning in a bottle.

We still don't have the other 52 players we continually are reminded we need in this "team sport"!

But hey, it's February...live it up while it's the off-season. We can pay the mortgage in December.

Build ladies. Build.
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Ladies really necessary?

The tone most likely made this post unlikeable and CK ripped him a new one on it but IMO, he is not wrong.

There are many reasonable ways to affirm ones position on whether it's move up, trade down, or stay put.

But he is not wrong. We are falling in love with the shiny when the bulk of our team is in the dark.

We could very well bring in this massive talent and kill his body/spirit much like we got Tannehil murdered early because we don't have a line that protects or wrs that create space.

But how do you not find the courage to risk whatever it takes if you believe this kid is Mahomes on jet fuel?

But how do you give up so many picks knowing the abundance of holes on this team?

This is not a black and white situation much like many things in life.

There is one absolute far from a grey area: you cannot be a perennial contender without a franchise QB.
 
AdamC13 said:
Baseball is safer but he was only guaranteed 4.66 million with A's.

Last year Mayfield signed for 32 mil with 21 mil signing bonus. Rosen was drafted 10th and signed a 17.5 mil fully guaranteed contract.

Not sure he would
ever be the type of homerun hitter to make 20-25 mil per year. If his game transitions to the NFL he stands to make much more playing football than baseball.
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Yes, true, but RGIII got 14 million guranteed on his rookie deal, made 7.3 million in salary for 4 years and now can't even get a job serving gatorade on the sideline...these guys are athletes...they thrive off competition and you can get injured in any sport, yes, but the NFL has more career-ending injuries than ever...and Murray, with the right coach and the right team, would absolutely turn into a 20 to 30 HR hitter annually...and would have at least a minimum of a 10 to 15 year career...even batting .270 he is going to land a job for millions...I have the pleasure of doing business with an ex NFL'er and the one thing he misses more than anything is the game...he had to retire early because of injury and wishes he could have played another 10 years...odds are against Murray surviving for very long in the NFL...if it's a payday he is after then fine, go at it, but if it's a career he wants, with the ability to play a sport for a living, baseball was the way to go...just my opinion of course
 
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